UFC 258 is headlined by the Welterweight Championship fight between Kamaru Usman and No. 1 contender Gilbert Burns, but with that main event comes a huge card. Here’s a preview of three betting picks from the main card and another from the early preliminary card that are showing value.
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: Main Card, 10 PM
Watch: ESPN+
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Kamaru Usman (-290) vs. Gilbert Burns (+235)
There are layers to this match. This bout has been rescheduled twice since it was supposed to go down this past summer. Once due to Burns testing positive for COVID-19 and later again in 2020 as Usman needed more time to recover from his prior fight.
These two were teammates for several years, training out of Sanford MMA. Usman opted to leave the gym and move out to Colorado to train with Trevor Wittman and his team. The full story isn’t clear, but Burns’ ascension to No. 1 contender status likely played a role.
The two have sparred together hundreds of times over the years and there is nothing but respect for one another. While all the time together could level the playing field some, Usman is still the better fighter, and he will show that come Saturday night.
Burns is a formidable opponent for Usman, but the champion boasts a five-inch reach advantage and has the strength to dominate grappling exchanges.
With an average fight time of more than 17 minutes in the UFC, “The Nigerian Nightmare” has shown that he has no issue going deep into fights and wearing down his opponent.
The challenger’s best path of victory is likely to get this to the ground, but that will be a tough task to do consistently over five rounds, if at all. Usman boasts a 100% takedown defense and has been in bottom position for zero seconds according to UFCStats.com.
Burns does have six submission victories in his career, and he could shock the champion if it gets to the mat, but I’m not counting on it. The Brazillian is a capable striker and both should be able to land throughout the fight, but Usman’s staggering reach advantage can prove to be critical.
Usman is too calculated. He has proven in his title fights that he is going to stymie his opponents most likely path to victory. Against Jorge Masvidal this summer, he cut off the cage and made it a grappling contest, opting not to stand and throw hands with a heavy striker.
Against Colby Covington, a renowned wrestler, Usman made it a standup contest and broke his jaw.
I do expect Burns to have his moments but over the course of 25 minutes, Usman’s efficiency should prove to be the difference. At anything over +100, I’d bet Usman by decision, which you can grab at FanDuel at +130 as of this writing.
Pick: Usman by decision +130
Ian Heinisch (+194) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-234)
Gastelum has dropped three straight fights, the first of those being a battle with Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title. Since then, he dropped a split decision to Darren Till and was submitted by Jack Hermansson in July.
Gastelum has the name recognition, but is giving up some size to “The Hurricane,” two inches in height and an inch in reach. While Heinisch has faltered when he has stepped up in class, losses to Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov, if you take away the name of these two and only look at the fights, this price is off.
Heinisch has lost to quality competition, but is also late to MMA and can be breaking through at 32. On the contrary, Gastelum had his first career bout before he could legally drink. With 22 fights under his belt already, he could be past his prime despite the young age.
Both men have struggled with energy late into fights but I see that Heinisch is improving and has some serious power behind his standup game, while Gastelum’s best days appear behind him.
I also like Heinisch’s offensive wrestling game and he has shown that he is not afraid to mix in level changes and get a takedown, averaging more than one takedown per 15 minutes.
At nearly +200, this is worth a bet to me.
Pick: Heinisch +194, play down to +170.
Maki Pitolo (+144) vs. Julian Marquez (-172)
Maybe I’m taking the bait on this line, but I don’t see it. Marquez is fighting for the first time since July of 2018 and is the prohibitive favorite?
Pitolo has had a rough go at it, but it’s not like he is losing to poor competition. At 1-3 in the UFC and loser of his last two in 2020 to middleweight stalwart Darren Stewart and rising prospect Impa Kasanganay, Pitolo is in need of a big win.
Marquez does possess the size advantage, he stands 6’2” while Pitolo is 5’10”, but the shorter man has a three-inch reach advantage.
Marquez has scored six of his seven wins by knockout, which could help avoid some ring rust considering he just needs to land a few to finish this.
However, I see Pitolo controlling the standup exchanges and overwhelming the fighter off a multi-year layoff. He is a busy fighter, averaging nearly five significant strikes landed per minute, per UFCStats.com.
There has to be some desperation for “Coconut Bombz” in this one after a poor 2020 campaign. At + money, I’m willing to take my chances on the more active fighter to notch the upset.
Pick: Pitolo +144, down to +110.
Miranda Maverick (-146) vs. Gillian Robertson (+124)
Maverick has a ton of upside in the UFC. At just 23, she has won eight of her 10 pro fights, including her last four.
Against a fighter like Gillian Robertson, pressure is paramount, which is exactly what Maverick thrives at doing. Robertson has been exposed as a fighter who can’t control fights and is much better suited as a counter striker. She is content being taken down and working off her back, but against an aggressive grappler like Maverick, this could spell trouble.
Maverick is still developing as a striker, but looked impressive in her UFC debut against Liana Jojua in October, scoring a first round finish via doctor stoppage. Her energy has looked sound to date, and I see Robertson struggling to keep up with Maverick’s pace over the course of the fight.
This price feels short, and I like buying this rising prospect to score a convincing victory over the limited Robertson.
Pick: Maverick -146, play to -160.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.