UFC 260 is here and the sports betting world can rejoice.
We have a heavyweight title fight as the main event with Stipe Miocic defending his gold against Francis Ngannou.
Overall, there are 10 fights and plenty to wager on, and I have three bets in for the pay-per-view.
Let’s get to it:
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Main Card, 10 PM EST
Watch: ESPN+
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Heavyweight title: Francis Ngannou (-130) vs. Stipe Miocic (+108)
This is a rematch from 2018 when Miocic defended his heavyweight belt against Ngannou, winning via five round decision, but things are different more than three years later.
After an uninspiring decision loss to Derrick Lewis, ‘The Predator’ has rattled off four consecutive wins in vicious fashion, spending less than three minutes in the ring.
Compare that to Miocic’s fight schedule since the Ngannou victory, three wars with Daniel Cormier, and I find myself leaning with the fresher man.
I’m not sure if Ngannou is going to dominate Miocic like he did in his prior four fights, but something has to be said for the run the challenger is on of late.
The knock on Ngannou will be his lack of ring time and if he has developed sound takedown defense, but I am willing to bet against that narrative.
Miocic was able to take him down six times in their first meeting, a staggering number, but with over three years to clean up his grappling work, I’ll side with Ngannou’s devastating power.
Ngannou is rightfully favored, and I think he gets an early finish. I’m going to play Ngannou to win inside the distance (-105) as I think the odds are underrating his finishing ability.
I will have my eye on the live menu, though. If Miocic is able to drag this out into the later rounds, his cardio may be able to outlast the challenger and get another decision victory, but I’m expecting a quick result.
Pick: Ngannou to win inside the distance -105, play to -115.
Underdog Bet: Modestas Bukauskas (+144) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-172)
Both guys were finished in the first round by Jimmy Crute in their last time out, but I make this fight closer to a pick, so I see some value on Bukauskas to grab a victory.
First, Bukauskas has a ton of size on his opponent, possessing a three inch height advantage and four inch reach advantage, per UFCStats.com.
That size is going to be big against a pressure fighter like Oleksiejczuk. The favorite is going to try and get Bukauskas up against the cage and finish this fight early, but I’m banking on the Lithuianan to keep this at range early and turn it on late.
If this goes to decision, I’m confident Bukauskas has the grappling ability to take two of three rounds and cash this underdog price.
After round one, I’m going to look to double down on Bukauskas if he remains a dog. I trust his ability to keep this at range and weather the early offense from Oleksiejczuk.
Pick: Bukauskas +144, play to +135
Parlay: Miranda Maverick/Abubakar Nurmagomedov
I wrote about Miranda Maverick vs. Gillian Robertson a few weeks back when the fight was scrapped from the card, but my thoughts remain the same.
Maverick is the real deal at women’s flyweight and I expect her to score an impressive victory over Robertson.
At -158, I’m going to look to save some of the vig and parlay it with Khabib’s cousin Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who should be able to take care of Jared Gooden.
Nurmagomedov, like his cousin, is a wrestle-heavy fighter and I expect him to impose his will on Gooden on the mat. While ‘Nite Train’ may have some advantage in the standup, he’s going to be in deep waters against Nurmagomedov on the ground.
Yes, the Russian lost his debut back in 2019 and he hasn’t fought since, submitting to a shocking triangle choke, but I expect him to bounce back and make a statement.
Khabib’s camp is going to keep their hot run going with another impressive victory here.
Pick: Parlay Maverick/Nurmagomedov +129