NEW YORK (AP) — Days before the start of what could be Major League Baseball's last postseason for a while, Carlos Rodón was prepared for a long lockout if owners keep their salary cap proposal on the bargaining table.
“We won't play. I'm going to be frank with you,” the New York Yankees pitcher said. “I'm not worried about it. They should be worried about it. There’s a lot of money on us playing baseball. That’s why they pay us a lot.”
Baseball's five-year labor contract expires Dec. 1 and management is expected to impose a lockout that would stop trades and free-agent signings, then potentially threaten the start of spring training workouts on Feb. 9 and opening day on March 24.
When management last proposed a cap, it sparked a 7 1/2-month strike in 1994 and '95 that led to the first cancellation of the World Series in 90 years. MLB says a cap is needed to alleviate economic disparity, highlighting that no low-revenue team has won the title since the 2015 Kansas City Royals.
“The salary cap and floor proposal levels the playing field, allowing us greater flexibility to address longstanding player priorities while sharing baseball revenue with the players 50/50,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said.
Owners would also gain more financial certainty with a cap, which likely would spark an increase in franchise values.
Players point out teams with low payrolls, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, had the best regular-season records in their leagues this season.
“Despite MLB claiming they need a salary cap because small-market teams supposedly have no hope, we see Milwaukee with the best record in baseball for the second straight year and Tampa with the best record in the AL," union head Bruce Meyer said. “Milwaukee, of course, is 30th out of 30 in our market-size rankings.”
While this would be MLB's 10th work stoppage, the sport hasn't lost any regular-season games since the 1994-95 strike. Baseball players say they will never accept a cap similar to those that have been in the NFL since 1994, the NBA since 1984-85 and the NHL since 2005-06. Nine of the 10 biggest sports contracts by total value in North America belong to MLB players.
“For me the biggest thing is doing right for the generations forward because the generations before me, for the decades before, they’ve fought for our rights today,” Baltimore first baseman Pete Alonso said. “That’s a sacrifice that not just myself but other men around the league are willing to fight for and put up with.”
Salary cap would cut highest salaries
MLB's proposal would cap team spending next year at $245.3 million, using figures for luxury tax payrolls that include $20.1 million for benefits and the pre-arbitration bonus pool. It also would establish a payroll floor of $171.2 million for 2027 but teams could drop as low as $154.1 million and make up the difference over the following two years. The New York Mets' opening day payroll in 2026 was over $352 million.
Contracts would be limited by service time: $500 million and 12 years for those yet to make major league debuts down to $265 million and six years for free-agent-eligible players. It would outlaw megadeals like outfielder Juan Soto's record $765 million, 15-year contract with the Mets.
While MLB proposed to split revenues 50-50, the union says that would lead to a massive decrease in money to players because of the way revenues and expenses are defined and the player portion is calculated. In addition, an escrow provision to set salaries aside in case the players' defined revenue share is above 50% means money in guaranteed contracts could be forfeited.
MLB as part of a cap system would agree to drop service time for free agent eligibility for some players from six years of service to five and to eliminate qualifying offers, but the union maintains that would shift money among players under a cap rather than increase spending.
Cost of lost regular-season games would be enormous
Alonso would lose $165,775 next year for each regular-season day missed and Rodón would forfeit $144,385.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani would give up $374,331 daily and Soto $227,273.
At the other end of the salary scale, players making MLB's proposed $900,000 minimum would lose $4,813 daily.
Some players are protected financially because of signing bonuses that will continue to be paid during a work stoppage: Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is due $14 million on June 30 as part of his $325 million contract, though he would give up $74,866 daily in salary.
Union leadership changed in February
Tony Clark, the former All-Star first baseman who headed the union since 2013, was forced out in February and replaced by Meyer, his deputy and chief negotiator in 2021-22.
Baltimore pitcher Chris Bassitt, a member of the union's eight-man executive subcommittee, said there had been a transformation this year in communications within the players' association. The subcommittee and the 30 team player representatives form the executive council that makes union decisions.
“Our last CBA from a player’s side was not internally handled great. I think the structure was very archaic, so to speak, like an old-school approach,” he said. “We have made it our mission to kind of get all 30 clubs — 30 reps that genuinely care. And then not just 30 reps that genuinely care, but 30 reps that are making sure all their players are very informed."
There was a split in vote to accept deal in 2022
When players and MLB agreed to a deal on March 10, 2022, that ended the lockout, the executive subcommittee voted 8-0 against accepting it, but the team player representatives favored the agreement by 26-4.
The vast majority of the 1,200 players on 40-man rosters when the lockout starts will not have salary arbitration or free agency rights and will have 2027 salaries under $1 million.
“Their voices matter, what they’re feeling, what they're thinking,” Bassitt said. “When I came in the league it was — I’m going to say it plainly — but it was like: `Rookie shut up and sit in the corner and the veterans are going to take care of this.' I don’t think that's a possible avenue to go down anymore. I think the league’s too young, first and foremost. Second, I think the only way to have veteran guys that are informed and understand the process is to start the education process from day one.”
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