Houston Texans
Biggest storyline heading into season?
Deshaun Watson. He likely won’t play for the Texans and if he’s inactive every week, while occupying a spot on the 53-man roster and collecting his $10.5 million salary, it will make for the oddest in-season relationship between an NFL team and its estranged franchise quarterback.
But what happens with Watson ultimately decides the direction of this franchise, whether that’s the highly unlikely reconciliation, or the trade compensation the Texans get back in a deal.
Who will be the X-factor?
For a losing team, the biggest X-factor is always management. Texans general manager Nick Caserio spoke after cutting the roster to 53 players that expectations for the Texans this season are “more process oriented than outcome oriented.” On the field, the X-factor is their offensive line. The Texans want to run the ball this season, but they moved their right tackle to left guard, moved their left guard to right guard, and brought in center and right tackle who did not play football last year.
The Texans will make the playoffs if … there’s a massive, troubling COVID-19 outbreak among AFC teams, specifically. Otherwise, even if Watson returned (not happening), it’s the longest of long shots.
The Texans will miss the playoffs if … they stay the course and don’t change a single thing. - Brandon Scott
Indianapolis Colts
Biggest storyline heading into season?
The beginning of the Carson Wentz era. After everything that happened in Philly, the former No. 2 pick gets a fresh start with a head coach who once helped him to glory – but can he recapture that MVP form with Frank Reich, or will he get hurt and be a bust? The Colts’ offense has the chance to be explosive of Wentz is healthy and his offensive line keeps him upright, and the team would surely rather surrender a first-rounder instead of a second (which would mean Wentz played at least 70 or 75 percent of the snaps).
Who will be the X-factor?
Kwity Paye and Julie’n Davenport. The former not only has the pressure of being a first-round pick, but also has to vie for a spot replacing Justin Houston and Denico Autry, who are both gone. A huge leap as a rookie will make the Colts’ pass rush stronger, and on the other side, the Horseshoes hope Davenport can anchor Wentz’s blind side for at least the short-term. The offensive line has had a few minor bumps and bruises in camp, and if Davenport can look strong at LT, it gives the Colts a chance to break in free agent signee Eric Fisher, who tore his Achilles in the 2020-21 postseason, a little more slowly.
The Colts will make the playoffs if … Wentz stays healthy and looks more like 2017 Carson Wentz, a secondary that ranked 20th in passing yards allowed take a step forward, Jonathan Taylor avoids a sophomore slump.
The Colts will miss the playoffs if … Wentz gets hurt early and/or often, Left tackle is a revolving door regardless of who is behind center, the revamped defensive line can’t generate any pressure to help the secondary. - Lou DiPietro
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season was not kind to Jacksonville and if you ask the sharps in Las Vegas—where the over/under for Jaguars wins has been set at 6.5—2021 figures to be more of the same. Could another lean year be in the offing or will the Jaguars, buoyed by the arrivals of Trevor Lawrence and coaching savior Urban Meyer, emerge as a surprise contender, just as they did in 2017 when they pushed New England to the brink in a thrilling AFC title game? This upcoming season is, for all intents and purposes, a rebuilding year, but if they catch a break or two, the Jags certainly have the talent to turn heads.
Biggest storyline heading into season?
A three-time national champion at Florida and Ohio State, Meyer arrives in Jacksonville as one of the most decorated college coaches in recent memory, but will his mastery of the FBS circuit translate to the NFL? While there have certainly been exceptions—two-time Super Bowl champ Jimmy Johnson among them—that transition has proven difficult for many including Nick Saban (Dolphins), Bobby Petrino (Falcons) and Steve Spurrier (Washington), all of whom were overmatched at the pro level. It’s obviously too early to make that assessment, but the first few months of Meyer’s Jacksonville tenure have been rocky to say the least, involving, among other setbacks, the hiring of disgraced strength coach Chris Doyle (who resigned in response to public backlash), practice violations resulting in a $200,000 fine, the team’s puzzling Tim Tebow signing and a farce of a quarterback battle that cost starter Trevor Lawrence valuable preseason reps.
Who will be the X-factor?
A natural leader with prototypical size and athleticism, Lawrence, for all his strengths, has often been labeled “overrated” with critics pointing to his uneven performance in last year’s semifinals loss to Ohio State, where he was roundly outplayed by his Buckeyes counterpart, Justin Fields. Lawrence also caused a stir with his comments to Sports Illustrated in April with many questioning his commitment to winning. With that said, last year’s Heisman runner-up lost a grand total of two games while at Clemson and was brilliant in his preseason finale, completing 11-of-12 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas. Coming off a franchise-worst 1-15 record last season, if the Jaguars somehow return to relevance in 2021, it will be because of Lawrence.
The Jaguars will make the playoffs if … literally everything goes right, and even that may not be enough in a division with perennial playoff teams Tennessee and Indianapolis. Jacksonville will need a herculean rookie year from Lawrence coupled with deep threat DJ Chark recapturing his 2019 form (73-1,008-8 on 118 targets). Defensive improvements and better injury luck are also necessities.
The Jaguars will miss the playoffs if … Meyer loses the locker room, James Robinson (1,414 yards from scrimmage last year, the most ever by an undrafted rookie) regresses and Lawrence’s struggles mount amid an injured offensive line. Behind in his development after having to “earn” his spot in training camp, Lawrence gets off to a slow start, losing confidence and compounding mistakes in his first taste of failure. Jacksonville’s lack of skill-position speed hamstrings the offense, forcing them to play catchup on a near-weekly basis. - Jesse Pantuosco
Tennessee Titans
Biggest storyline heading into season?
Are the Titans a Super Bowl contender? Tennessee went on an incredible run two years ago to the AFC Championship Game and returned to the playoffs as the AFC South winners last year, only to get knocked out by the Ravens in the Wild Card round.
We know Tennessee can run the ball and they added a couple of playmakers on defense, so much of their fate hinges on the shoulders of QB Ryan Tannehill. He is coming off a career-year in which he threw 33 TDs to seven interceptions, but he had an uninspiring performance in the playoffs and has yet to elevate his game in the postseason, where the great quarterbacks are usually able to separate themselves from the g0od ones.
Who will be the X-factor?
Julio Jones. The Titans’ newest addition to the receiving corps. essentially replaces Corey Davis but Jones will be under a microscope on whether or not he can stay healthy. The 32-year-old played in nine games last year, but when on the field, he was still making an impact. Jones is also being looked to as a leader on the team and someone who is expected to elevate the Titans to the next level, but much of that will depend on if he can stay healthy and what he does on the field.
The Titans will make the playoffs if ... Tannehill plays the way he has the last two years and the defensive additions — Bud Dupree, Denico Autry, Janoris Jenkins and Caleb Farley — improve on Tennessee’s third-down efficiency and putting pressure on the quarterback.
The Titans will miss the playoffs if ... Tannehill reverts back to his Miami days and Derrick Henry gets injured and misses a significant amount of time. - John Healy
LISTEN on the Audacy App
Sign Up and Follow Audacy Sports
Facebook | Twitter | Instagram