Back in March when I had an opportunity to reassess the successes and failures of the 2019 season, I wrote that the Bills had entered a "Super Bowl window", and that the only thing truly holding them back was their second-year quarterback, Josh Allen.
“Finally, the most important factor standing in the way of a Bills Super Bowl run: Josh Allen.
I don’t want that to sound harsh. He’s not a roadblock, but his success in 2020 is easily the most critical factor for any sort of short- or long-term success. I’d argue that 95% of people on the outside looking in are either rooting against Allen or predicting he’ll, at least, fail in 2020. Not that that’s anything new, it’s just interesting to me that even after a very solid second season, most are unwilling to buy in that his third year will be his best yet.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane isn’t taking any chances, though. Adding wide receiver Stefon Diggs was a monumental move, and one that has put the Bills squarely into this Super Bowl window. It’s the move good teams make to try to be great. It’s the move that removes all excuses for their young signal caller.
Allen is, arguably, the Bills' most consequential player in more than three decades, with more riding on his success than just about any young quarterback in football that I can remember. His success would go against nearly every advanced statistic, and for that, I think he’s incredibly easy to root for.”
I don’t believe I was overly negative or harsh in my assessment, but I was wrong about Allen. I expected third-year improvement from Allen, and fully expected him to rise to the occasion and end the year within the top-20 in important efficiency metrics like DVOA.
This isn’t breaking news or anything, but his third-year jump wasn’t even on the minds of his staunchest defenders, so it’s not like I have anything to apologize for.
The reason I’m bringing this up isn’t to rehash our feelings about Allen before September. Rather, I wanted to remind folks where most of our heads were at before knowing Allen could be mentioned (legitimately) with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
If you can remember, there was a time not so long ago that the Bills were led by their defense, not their offense. That made the early defensive struggles so perplexing, considering the beacon of consistency they’d been in the Sean McDermott era. In fact, the defense we all saw in the first half of the 2020 season resembled Rex Ryan’s defense, rather than McDermott’s claim to fame.
Certainly, it was COVID-19 to blame. It was injuries to linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds. Or maybe it was the loss of defensive tackle Star Loutulelei. We also can’t forget that cornerback Tre'Davious White was also banged up and missed the Chiefs game.
The moral of the story is the defense, like much of the league in the first quarter of the season, had lots of things they could point to for their early struggles.
Ignoring parts of their game plan against the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card Round, the Bills have looked far more like their 2019-self again, and for that, I think there’s legitimate reason to be excited.
I woke up Sunday morning with a sense of confidence I hadn’t felt at any point during the lead up to the Wild Card and Divisional Round games. Mostly because it feels like we’re all playing with house money.
My goals for the 2020 have been so far exceeded. Losing in the AFC Championship Game to the defending Super Bowl champions wouldn’t hurt me like it would have if they’d lost to the Colts. I wanted a playoff win, and getting to this point is almost unimaginable for me.
I feel like we truly can’t lose, regardless of outcome, and that’s a healthy and balanced place to be mentally this late into the season.
For me, the Bills just needed an average offense to be a contender this season. Instead, they developed one of the league's most potent passing attacks. Pair that with the 2019 defense and I think the Bills can realistically win two more games, even if it means going through the 2019 and 2020 league Most Valuable Players.
I’m not kidding, but how the hell do you defend Andy Reid and Mahomes?
The blitz-heavy Cover 4 looks that completely dismantled the Ravens running and passing games last week needs to be deployed this Sunday against Mahomes. I know we’re talking about a different animal in Mahomes than Jackson, particularly as a passer, but sitting back and letting Mahomes pick your zone apart doesn’t bode well for the Bills.
What I like about their game plan, as Rex Ryan put it, the quarters coverage you see from the Bills is essentially man coverage with a 10-yard cushion. Your defensive backs can have their eyes on the ball or quarterback, while creating enough leverage to protect against getting beat over the top. That should certainly come in handy trying to stop wide receiver Tyreek Hill from beating you vertically.
But even when you take Hill away vertically, he can beat you with yards after the catch and in the screen game. Shutting him out entirely won’t happen, but using quarters keeps his athleticism in front of you, which is better than trying to chase him when he crosses the face of defenders.
Then enter tight end Travis Kelce, who can kill zone coverage on top of the deep threat the Chiefs have in Hill.
The problem with quarters coverage or Cover 4 is the throwing lane or window that exists (especially on play action when the linebackers are delayed getting into coverage) between the safeties in their deep middle half and the linebackers in their hook-to-curl zones. That 10-yard window is where Kelce can absolutely kill the Bills if the run game can get started early and get the Bills linebackers playing downhill.
That’s where having a giant middle linebacker in Edmunds can become an advantage for the Bills in trying to cloud the easy throwing lanes. Add in the fact that Edmunds is healthy for this matchup, unlike their Week 6 matchup, and he’ll have his partner in Milano, who also didn’t play. I think the Bills have more confidence to unleash a more aggressive game plan this time around.
I just worry about giving Mahomes too many Tampa 2 or traditional Cover 2 looks, and I suspect the Bills are too. We’ll be spoiled with elite coaching and scheme on Sunday, so take it in and appreciate some really high-level coaching and execution this Sunday.
With all that said, enjoy this week and consume all the Bills content you possibly can. There’s no guarantee any of us will be back here, so soak it in, "Bills Mafia".
I think it’s okay to be confident too. If the Bills bring the same defensive mindset that they did on Saturday, combined with bright lights Allen, the guy who singlehandedly dismantled five of the league’s top defenses in the regular season and playoffs, I think they’re the best team in football.
If that team shows up to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, I think the Bills will hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy and represent the AFC in Super Bowl LV.