Eighty-one targets. Fifty-nine catches. Seven hundred and 29 yards.
Overall the stat line isn’t overly exciting. At a 12.4 yards per reception rate, it’s a decent number. Many talking heads and even local supporters of the team would call that solid production from a “No. 3 receiver”. Then why did PFF grade Jakobi Meyers as No. 25 in the NFL? What many people do not realize is that box score numbers are highly deceiving and an outdated method of evaluating play in the NFL.
Meyers didn’t have an exhilarating year, but showed exceptional promise in the limited opportunity he got. As the No. 1 target in his offense, none of his numbers really jump out. They leave you wanting more.
Fortunately for Patriot fans, the Meyers statistics are an optical illusion.
They lead you to believe that he isn’t by any means capable of rising into the upper echelons of NFL receivers when in actuality if you flesh out the numbers even slightly, you become astounded to see he could easily work his way into the conversation.
The first thing to note about Meyers’ stats this season is that they were produced in one of the league’s worst passing offenses. Purely in terms of yards, the New England Patriots ranked 30th. They were 31st in attempts and completions and tied for dead last in passing touchdowns.
People shout from the mountain tops that it was “bad weapons” and a “lack of skill players” that forced the Patriots hand when in fact it was really the decisions and play-calling of the offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
The Patriots pass offense COULD have been better on paper, but it was by choice that it was as bad as it was. Similar to a team like the Baltimore Ravens, they ranked near the bottom of every passing category and near the top of every single rushing category. This was by design. When you have a quarterback who can assist in the creation of space for other runners, offensive coordinators will exploit that as much as they can because it is a clear strength of your team.
We aren’t here to rip McDaniels. He simply crafted the best game plan he could with the quarterback he was given by Bill Belichick. It just turned out to be a bad passing offense with a great rushing attack. By understanding the method behind the Patriots offense, we can then dive into figuring out exactly how good Jakobi was this season.
We can begin to extrapolate Jakobi’s performance by looking at a team like the Titans in comparison to the Patriots. The Titans were 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing yards, which isn’t a massive jump from where the Patriots are on the list. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was 15th in the league in passing yards which would put him right around the league average.
Newton in 15 games: 242 completions on 368 attempts for 2,657 yards.
Tannehill in 16 games: 315 completions on 481 attempts for 3,819 yards.
Newton and Tannehill had a nearly identical completion percentage, but Tannehill dominated in completions, attempts, and yards. He was given about 1.3 times more passing opportunities than Newton and produced 1,162 more yards. Using that number of 1.3, we can multiply Cam’s exact production to Ryan Tannehill’s level. This, in turn, allows us to calculate how much more production Jakobi would have had in a Patriot offense that had the production of Tannehill at quarterback.
Meyers in the “Tannehill” Patriot offense: 105 targets, 76 receptions, 947 yards, 12.4 Yards per Reception
It’s important to note that Meyers' yards per reception number stays the exact same because it shows that he’s not over achieving. He is still catching balls and gaining yards at the same production rate while simply increasing his catch volume. These new numbers would push Meyers up to 37th in targets, 26th in receptions, and 24th in yards. The numbers in a league average passing offense would line him up right around that PFF grade of 25th. People can say it’s coincidental or hypothetical, but as we’ve learned from Antonio Brown in Hard Knocks, “Men lie, women lie, but analytics don’t.”
Let’s take this one step further and now extrapolate Jakobi into a passing offense like the Los Angeles Rams. When I watch Jakobi, he feels very much in the Robert Woods mold of receiver. No specific ability jumps out at you, but he is a solid receiver, with good route running and bordering between a No. 1 and No. 2 receiver. We can start by comparing Cam and Goff.
Newton in 15 games: 242 completions on 368 attempts for 2,657 yards.
Goff in 15 games: 370 completions on 552 attempts for 3,952 yards.
Goff was given 1.5 times more passing opportunities than Cam and this is the number we can use to examine how good Jakobi would have been with the ninth leading passer in terms of yards.
Meyers in the “Goff” Patriot offense: 121 targaets, 88 receptions, 1,093 yards, 12.4 Yards per Reception
By putting Jakobi Meyers in a top 10 passing offense, you can see how greatly his numbers would increase. Again, his production rate of 12.4 yards per catch stays the same and we’re simply increasing the volume of catches and targets Jakobi is getting. These new numbers would have ranked him 20th in targets, 15th in receptions, and 15th in yards in the NFL this season.
Ultimately, we have to come to understand the nuances of NFL offenses. Box score numbers can become very deceiving if that’s our only source of information. Let’s not get it twisted. Meyers is NOT the 25th best receiver in football. But the ability for him to be that and go even further beyond is there.
I once made a comparison that if everything broke right Meyers could become Deion Branch. I stand by that and I believe the numbers justify my belief.