Putting Miguel Cabrera at first base makes no sense for the Tigers.
If anyone knows that, it is manager A.J. Hinch.
He comes to the Tigers from perhaps the most analytically-based organization in MLB, the Astros. Hinch hasn’t made a habit of letting the facts get in the way of proper decision making.
So why would Hinch say recently he would like to see Miggy play first base?
My best guess is he understands players, particularly stars. Cabrera will be in the Tigers’ starting lineup and hitting third on Opening Day. It's just the way it will be through 2023, after which an $8 million buyout finally kicks in. So a happy, and more importantly, motivated Miggy evidently trumps analytics in Hinch’s view.
Cabrera must be in tip-top shape to play first base. In fairness, Miggy was just that when he reported last spring.
The numbers and Cabrera’s knee issues strongly suggest he should be a full-time DH, though.
All the rhetoric you’ve heard through the years from analysts about Cabrera being an underrated fielder and instinctive base runner despite a lack of agility and speed simply isn’t true.
His career defensive WAR, per baseballreference.com, is minus 17.7. In his entire career, regardless the position, Cabrera has never posted a plus defensive WAR. Conversely, Cabrera’s offensive WAR is 79.0, which is 40th all-time.
A 0.0 WAR is baseline for a so-called “4-A” player, which is on the border of being an MLB player and belonging in Triple-A.
Ideally, Miggy gets in shape, is the DH every game, hits like crazy and you have a version of David Ortiz late in his career.
As a hitter, Cabrera presented a mixed bag during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He struggled to catch up with fastballs much of the campaign, murdered a few sloppy breaking balls and hit well for a stretch late in the year all-around, which enhanced his stats (.250, 10 HR, 35 RBI in 204 plate appearances). His OPS (.746 ) was slightly above the MLB average, but his WAR was 0.0, which suggests the Tigers paid an inordinate amount of money for a DH performing at a 4-A level.
So how do you get more bang for the buck the next few seasons other than celebrating Miggy's various career mileposts?
Dangle the glove in front of him. Take advantage of Cabrera, 38, caring enough about the game, and his place in it, to want to be considered an all-around player rather than just a hitter. It’s pride, and that’s good.
The most curious aspect of this, though, is the way the Tigers are handling their corner infield positions. They drafted Spencer Torkelson first overall as a third baseman, despite him not playing the position for Arizona State.
They have two viable third base options for now and for the future in Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes. They have drafted potential future third basemen Gage Workman, Colt Keith and Nick Quintana early in the last two MLB drafts.
Despite the Tigers’ insistence Torkelson is a third baseman, his logical landing spot is first.
Candelario is definitely a better fielder than Cabrera. So why, even this season, would he not play first and Miggy DH if Paredes is at third? Workman was ASU’s third baseman, not Torkelson.
There are many pundits, myself included, who feel Hinch is arguably the best manager in baseball and the Tigers are fortunate to land him.
Dealing with these type of situations is incredibly nuanced and important. It will be interesting to observe how this one ultimately shakes out.