Give Matthew Stafford credit for flipping the script.
He has gone from being blamed for everything wrong with the Lions, often unfairly, to perceived as a victim of the franchise’s countless foibles, though he has often been complicit in its struggles.
Logically, the Lions need to go into total rebuilding mode and trade Stafford for badly-needed draft capital.
But it’s one thing to put a shiny asset on the market. It’s another for it to be moved for acceptable value.
The price for Stafford has to be at least a first-round draft pick, and perhaps an extra early-round choice, right? Would dealing him for less be egregious?
Will a team bite in a crowded market for veteran quarterbacks amid the growing trend of building on salary-cap friendly, potentially high-end, first-round QB's?
Stafford is universally lauded for statistical greatness.
He has reached the 45,000-yard passing mark faster than any QB in NFL history. Stafford is fourth all-time in yards passing per game behind Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck. He is seventh all-time in touchdown passes among active QB's, and 16th overall. He will turn 33 next month.
Stafford’s arm talent, toughness, smarts and work ethic are unquestioned. There is no QB better suited to lead late rallies. He is brilliant in the spread during the two-minute offense. It’s not a fluke he is eighth all-time, fourth among active QB's, in fourth-quarter comebacks.
You’d think given these factors, Stafford would draw interest from a contending team, perhaps as the final piece. Say, the Colts, if it doesn’t go well for Phillip Rivers in the postseason.
Yet, like seemingly everything involving Stafford, it’s complicated. The cracks in his effectiveness are exposed with just a little deeper dive into his statistics.
Stafford’s sparkling numbers are mostly because of volume passing. He has thrown more passes per game (37.2) than any QB in NFL history.
In the important yards per attempt category, Stafford is 20th among active QBs at 7.2 (between Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton, and the same as the Lions’ much-maligned QB from decades ago, Milt Plum).
Stafford’s QB rating (89.9) is 15th among current QBs, just behind Jared Goff and barely ahead of Bridgewater. Stafford has thrown 23 pick-six interceptions, third among active players and seventh all time. In contrast, Aaron Rodgers has thrown just three and Russell Wilson five.
His completion percentage of 62.2 is 20th among active QBs, right between Carson Wentz and Alex Smith.
The website pro-football-reference.com has a Hall of Fame metric. Stafford is 56th all-time among QB's, considerably lower than any Hall member and slightly behind Joe Flacco and barely ahead of Smith.
Because of the comebacks, Stafford has a reputation as a clutch QB. However, his effectiveness has tailed off noticeably at key turning points during his stint with the Lions.
This season presented a classic example, albeit masked by the utter ineptitude of the Lions’ defense.
Stafford had three pick-sixes. On third-and-six and the Lions holding a lead in the opener vs. the Bears, Stafford was intercepted when he tried to fit a throw in-between defenders with less than three minutes left in his own territory. He took unnecessary sacks at the end of the first half which took points off the board on multiple occasions. His strip sack vs. the Colts was very costly. So was an ill-fated interception thrown on the run into the end zone vs. the Saints.
After general manager Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were fired, Stafford suddenly lit it up for more than 400 yards during an improbable victory over the Bears. He played much better down the stretch when the pressure was off. To say it was because of the coaching change is ridiculous. The interim head coach was offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
This came after Stafford played at high level the first half of 2019 before being sidelined by a back injury.
This season followed a consistent pattern in Stafford’s career.
In 2018, the Lions won three of four games to even their record at 3-3. In the next six games, before he suffered a back injury, Stafford threw six TD passes and was intercepted five times. He also lost two fumbles, most notably on an ill-fated pitch to Kerryon Johnson at Minnesota. And that was after the Monday Night Football disaster vs. the Jets in the opener and before his back injury.
Was it the head coach’s fault? Patricia, although a disaster, allowed Stafford to keep his hand-picked offensive coordinator by retaining Jim Bob Cooter.
Statistically, Stafford had his least effective season between his brilliant breakout 5,000-yard year in 2011 and the above-mentioned ’18 campaign during 2014.
The Lions won 11 games that season, though. The defense, albeit it benefitted by facing a lot of bad QB's, was excellent.
In 2015, with expectations heightened, the walls collapsed. With Stafford throwing 11 interceptions, the Lions started 1-7. General manager Martin Mayhew, who drafted Stafford first overall in 2009, was fired. So was team president Tom Lewand, who negotiated Stafford’s $42 million guaranteed rookie contract in the era before slotting for draft picks.
Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was the designated scapegoat. He was canned.
Stafford’s response: He became much more accurate and efficient under Cooter as the Lions rolled to a 6-2 mark in meaningless games the rest of the season.
Cooter ultimately became the scapegoat. He was fired after Stafford’s poor ‘18 season.
In 2013, the Lions were 6-3 after a road win at Chicago. Green Bay was struggling. The path was wide open for the NFC North title. All but one of the Lions’ remaining games, vs. 8-6 Baltimore, were against losing teams. Stafford threw 12 interceptions as the Lions lost six of seven. The Lions missed the playoffs. Head coach Jim Schwartz was fired.
It’s not like the Lions haven’t tried to augment the offense for Stafford. They have taken three tight ends in the first round, traded up multiple times for running backs early in the draft, selected offensive linemen in the first round, and spent big money on free agent wide receivers and linemen. It’s perhaps the biggest factor why they faltered so badly defensively.
Stafford was undeniably spectacular in 2011. His Captain Comeback routine in 2016 was special, at least until the end. His bounce back in 2019 before the injury was admirable.
But he has been paid for his trouble. Stafford has been the highest-paid player in the NFL, and among the Top 10 compensated athletes in the world, at certain points during his tenure with the Lions.
It’s possible Stafford could go elsewhere and move past the stone wall he’s inevitably hit in Detroit. But the notion he hasn’t played a role in the frustration surrounding the Lions simply isn’t true.
The Lions have been victimized by Stafford’s flaws, too.
And it could have a bearing on his trade value.