Baseball starts in just over a week from now, and it's an unusual time for the Red Sox. While the roster is talented, particularly on offense, just two years removed from a 108-win season and a World Series championship, Boston looks to be a very distant third in the AL East, behind the Yankees and Rays. And to make matters worse, the team traded a perennial All-Star and former MVP in the prime of his career in February, with Mookie Betts' trade to the Dodgers.
After stumbling to a 84-78 finish in 2019, here are the biggest questions the Sox must answer in order to make it back to the postseason.
1) Can the rotation keep them in games? The answer last year was a resounding no. The starters combined for a 4.95 earned run average, the bottom third in baseball, indicating the collective effort it was. Chris Sale (6-11, 4.40 ERA) had the worst season of his career. Rick Porcello's 5.52 ERA was the worst among qualified starters in all of baseball. Nate Eovaldi saw the first year of his four-year contract wasted by injury, making only 12 starts. David Price was... fine... which isn't a ringing endorsement for someone who made $31 million. And the combination of Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson and Andrew Cashner had a 6.81 ERA in 21 starts.
Not great, right? Well 2020 doesn't look any better. Eduardo Rodriguez was actually a bright spot last year, and was tabbed to be the Opening Day starter before a positive COVID-19 test delayed his arrival to camp. Chris Sale is on the shelf for the year with Tommy John surgery. David Price is off the books as part of the Betts trade, and Porcello left as a free agent to the Mets.
That leaves the spots behind E-Rod extremely thin. Eovaldi will start Opening Day, but hasn't made more than 21 starts in a year since 2015. Collin McHugh was brought in on a free agent deal, but has largely spent the last two years in the Houston bullpen. Remember Porcello having the worst starter ERA in the bigs? Martin Perez had the fourth worst (5.12), and he's now in Boston. The fifth spot will go to either Johnson, Ryan Weber or an opener.
2) Is this a one-year audition for Ron Roenicke? The Astros bombshell led to the departure of manager Alex Cora, and the Sox went with an internal replacement in Ron Roenicke, who was the bench coach. The former Brewers manager, Roenicke is well-respected but his contract runs through 2020 and there's a new boss in chief baseball executive Chaim Bloom. Sixty games seems unfair to get a full gauge, but it might be all the 63-year-old gets as Bloom could look to bring in his own guy.
3) Is the offense still one of baseball's best? Because the pitching was so bad, it's easy to forget that the 2019 offense was actually better than the historic 2018 team in terms of runs (901 to 876), home runs (245 to 208) and OPS (.806 to .792). Now there's a teeny tiny hole at the top of the lineup with Mookie Betts gone (more on that in a minute), but there is in theory the ability to replace some of the 29 homers and 44 doubles he's averaged the last four years.
Andrew Benintendi was disappointing in 2019, with his average dipping from .290 to .266, his home runs dropping from 16 to 13 and his strikeout total increasing from 106 to 140. More is expected of the 25-year-old entering his fourth full season. Elsewhere, Xander Bogaerts had a career year in 2019, proving he was worth extending prior to last year, Rafael Devers' stock is only rising after hitting .311 with 31 homers at age 22, and J.D. Martinez is still one of the premier hitters in the game. Those are the known commodities. If Christian Vazquez can repeat his breakout season (.276 with 23 homers), Jackie Bradley can find some consistency (more below), and Michael Chavis can make a jump from his rookie to sophomore seasons, there's no reason the Sox can't be a top-five offense once again.
4) Who fills that gaping hole in right field? Universally accepted as the second-best position player in baseball, trading Mookie Betts in the prime of his career is something that Sox fans won't soon forget. While there's the slimmest of slim chances he could return this winter now that the Sox are under the luxury tax, don't bet on it. Enter Alex Verdugo, a 24-year-old acquired in the Betts trade who hit .294 with 12 home runs in 106 games for Los Angeles last year. In a crowded Dodgers outfield his chances were limited, but it appears the right field job is his in Boston. No pressure, kid.
Behind him, Kevin Pillar was brought in as a fourth outfielder who brings a tremendous glove, but a below-average bat (career numbers: .261 average, .701 OPS). And at this stage of his career, you don't really want J.D. Martinez roaming the vast right field at Fenway - where, it should be noted, Betts won four consecutive Gold Gloves.
5) What do you do with Jackie Bradley, Jr.? There's no doubting Bradley's abilities in centerfield, where he might be the best to ever suit up for the Sox. But man, can he be maddening at the plate. His average topped out at .267 in his lone All-Star season of 2016 and has fallen each season since, bottoming out at .225 last year. And it's not just the final average, it's how it plummets to those levels. When Bradley is hot, he's scorching, and when he's cold, he's ice cold. And he's a free agent this winter.
In April and May he's a career .203 hitter, which fans would have gladly taken after watching him start the season 13-for-88 (.148). He hit below .200 in three different months last year, but can bring power and has some clutch hits in his career (see the 2018 postseason). Put it all together - his world-class defense and the wildly inconsistent hitting - and what's the market? If Bradley goes on a month-long hot streak, in a 60-game season it could be enough to get a long-term deal somewhere else. But a month-long cold streak and he could be in a precarious situation.
