Black Monday was slightly bleaker than normal in the NFL this year, with a quarter of teams firing their current head coaches in place of someone else. Whether that someone is an up-and-coming young coordinator or a familiar face getting another shot, what every team needs is different.
With eight openings available as of Jan. 2, what franchises would be on the rise, while which are worth staying away? Here’s how we rank them all, based on personnel, cap space and general competence.
8) Cincinnati Bengals:
After 16 years, the Marvin Lewis era is finally over after Cincy closed the year on a 1-7 whimper. The offense is in flux, with AJ Green turning 31 in July, Andy Dalton seemingly stuck in a rut before his injury and Tyler Eifert battling injuries. Meanwhile with rookie quarterbacks, the Ravens burst into the postseason and the Browns look like they have a bright future, while the Steelers (playoff miss aside) still have an open window as long as Ben Roethlisberger stays. The next coach has some difficult choices to make.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The team fired Dirk Koetter immediately after Sunday’s game, capping a 5-11 campaign. And it looks like whoever comes in will have Jameis Winston at quarterback for 2019. That was dominating storyline all season for the inconsistent quarterback, and it’s likely his last chance to prove his worth as a franchise quarterback, both on and off the field. The team picked up his $20 million option, but after that he’s a free agent. The coach coming in better hope he either shines and makes an extension easy, or he bottoms-out and the team starts over. Somewhere in the middle, and you might be paying close to nine-figures for a question mark.
As for the rest of the roster, there’s only $15 million of cap space available, 29th in the league.
6) Miami Dolphins:
Some are wondering if the Dolphins are best to blow it up and start over. Ryan Tannehill was fine for the umpteenth year of his career (11 games, 64 percent completion, 17:9 TD:INT ratio, 1,979 yards), but he’s not great. The offense finished 26th and the defense 25th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). The future of the division is there for the taking – Tom Brady has to retire at some point (right?), while the Jets and Bills aren’t exactly thriving. But with just $19.9 million in cap space, 2019 could be a step backwards in order to move forward in South Beach.
5) Arizona Cardinals:
Steve Wilks wasn’t exactly given much time to implement his system, as he was fired after going 3-13 in Year One. There was a good amount of in-season drama, as the team made a switch at offensive coordinator mid-year, while defensive stalwart Patrick Peterson was rumored to have asked out. On the bright side, there’s a young quarterback in Josh Rosen, talent like Peterson, David Johnson and Chandler Jones, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, and $62 million in cap space. There are worse pieces with which to work.
4) New York Jets:
It was a rough season overall for the Jets, but Sam Darnold gave reasons for hope in 2019 and beyond. After a rocky start to his rookie season, the USC product completed 64 percent of his passes in December, throwing six touchdowns to just one interception. Now, with the third pick in the draft and the second-most cap space in the NFL ($106 million) it’s time to build around the young signal caller and get him some playmakers.
3) Denver Broncos:
This job would likely be more desirable were it not in the AFC West. But the thought of Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City dominating for the next 10 years, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers for at least the next few, is a daunting one. Coming off 5-11 and 6-10 campaigns, the record doesn’t add up to the numbers (5th in DVOA on defense, 14th on offense). The defense is still exceptional (if not elite anymore), with Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and Derek Wolfe providing a terrifying pass rush.
Phillip Lindsey looks like a star in the making on offense, but is Case Keenum the long-term quarterback, and what other weapons does he have around him? Emmanuel Sanders, off a torn Achilles, isn’t getting any younger.
2) Green Bay Packers:
Short of Aaron Rodgers suffering a major injury, seemingly everything that could go wrong, did in 2018 for the Packers, who missed the playoffs for a second straight season. Obviously acquiring one of the marquee quarterbacks of this generation is a good place to start, but Rodgers just turned 35, so the window isn’t limitless. Green Bay is right around league average in cap space ($37 million), and it should go to the defensive side of the ball, where the team finished 29th in DVOA.
The division isn’t easy, with Chicago having a ton of young pieces (plus Khalil Mack) and Minnesota having some talent. But any job with a franchise QB in place can’t be a bad thing.
1) Cleveland Browns:
What seemed unthinkable a year ago is now true: Cleveland (Cleveland!) is a desirable destination for their next football coach. That will happen when you go from winning zero games to seven, find a quarterback with a bright future, load up a defense with young playmakers and still have $80 million in cap space.
Baker Mayfield broke Peyton Manning’s rookie record for touchdown passes by a QB and he came on strong over the season’s final month, and it looks like Nick Chubb can be a workhorse running back. On the defensive side, Denzel Ward proved his worth as the fourth pick in the 2018 draft, while Myles Garrett is a bonafide star on the defensive line. Pittsburgh’s window is closing, Cincinnati is in disarray and Baltimore isn’t impenetrable. Browns!
