There are two weeks left in the MLB regular season, and the race for the six divisions is... well... anticlimactic. Only one division sees the leader hold a lead fewer than five games (the NL Central) and four are either locked up or will be in the coming days.
The wild card races, however, are a different story. In the AL three teams are fighting for two bids, while in the NL there are three teams within one game of each other, with two longshots still alive (Mets and Phillies). With all of that going on, which series over the next 14 days will decide who plays in October? We’re here to tell you.
5) Nationals @ Cardinals (9/17-18):
The two are in midst of a three-game set in St. Louis right now, and both have juuuuust a little bit of cushion with which to work. Washington won’t win the division, but holds the first wild-card spot, while the Cards have a slight edge in the NL Central race. Neither team can afford to lose the series and, consequently, that cushion.
4) Nationals @ Phillies (9/23-26):
The Phillies are on their final gasps of postseason breath, entering Tuesday five back of the final wild-card spot. That makes next week’s five-game set with Washington all the more important. If Philly survives this week against Atlanta and Cleveland, it means it would have to likely take four out of the five games (they play a doubleheader on Tuesday) to have a punter’s chance. Of course, that kind of series would be devastating to Washington.
3) Yankees @ Rays (9/24-25):
Tampa Bay wraps up a two-game set with Los Angeles tonight (lucky them), then has Boston, New York and Toronto to close out the regular season. Compare that to Oakland, who faces the Royals, Rangers, Angels and Mariners (combined 83 games under .500). A game back of the A’s and 1.5 up on Cleveland (schedule below), the Rays can’t afford to stumble with their fairly difficult close.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are fighting for home-field in the postseason, entering Tuesday tied with Houston for the best record in baseball. The importance? Consider the Yankees are 53-22 at home, while the Astros are 56-20.
2) Nationals @ Indians (9/27-29):
Washington fans sure are going to have fun over the final handful of games, eh? Cleveland still has a punter’s chance in the AL Central if Minnesota collapses and the Tribe plays well. In all likelihood, though, the Indians will welcome in the Nats for an end-of-season interleague contest in which both teams will need wins to lock up postseason berths. The Indians have the lowly Tigers, the Phillies and the White Sox to play before welcoming in Washington. Barring a run of 7-1 or 8-0 from either side, it could be one of the most intense interleague regular season matchups ever.
1) Cardinals @ Cubs (9/19-22):
The bitter rivals play each other seven times over the final 10 games, starting Thursday at Wrigley for a four-game set. Entering Tuesday, St. Louis leads Chicago by two games in the NL Central, and the Cubs hold the second wild-card spot, sandwiched between Washington and Milwaukee. The Cubs coming away with anything less than a split could be catastrophic. There’s a chance that the final weekend of the season at Busch Stadium decides the division, but it won’t happen unless this series is a doozy.