As the La Niña weather pattern slowly kicks in, people across the U.S. are wondering what type of weather we can expect this winter. Will it be chilly or balmy?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, temperatures will be warmer-than-average from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska this winter. These warm temps will most likely be experienced throughout Texas and along the Gulf Coast.
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook was released Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center, covering the period from December 2024 through February 2025.
Areas that may have below-average-temperatures include southern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and the northern High Plains region, NOAA said.
For a second opinion, Audacy also checked the Old Farmer’s Almanac. As it turns out, the almanac has a similar prediction.
“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” said Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter – potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”
While last winter was mild for much of the country last year, this summer and fall ushered in a very active Atlantic hurricane season that has left parts of the South in recovery still. It looks like most of the areas hit by hurricanes will have a warmer-than-average winter.
In addition to temperature predictions, NOAA also provided forecasts related to precipitation. Drier-than-average conditions are expected along the Gulf Coast, lower mid-Atlantic states, and from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states. An area covering states bordering the Gulf of Mexico through Texas and into southern New Mexico has the strongest likelihood of drier-than-usual conditions.
NOAA said “wetter-than-average conditions are predicted for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region,” as well as northern and western Alaska. Probabilities of a wetter-than average winter are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.
There is also a possibility that rainstorms will hit Florida, the Deep South and southern California, said the Farmer’s Almanac. It said heavy snowfall is expected in central and southern Appalachia, the western Ohio Valley, and the Rocky Mountains.
At the same time, “much of California, the central Plains states and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation,” said NOAA.
Weather this year is impacted by La Niña, a regularly occurring cool weather pattern that shifts back every four to seven years with El Niño a warmer pattern, explained Climate.gov. Last winter, El Niño conditions impacted temperatures.
“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
For some regions – such as Great Plains and in portions of the Rocky Mountains – this means potential drought.
These conditions are expected to develop further this fall.
Typically, they result in a more northerly storm track during the winter, NOAA said. Based on this, NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), expect drought conditions to persist and worsen in the central and southern Plains and across portions of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.
“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”
However, some regions – including the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes region and portions of the northwestern U.S., including eastern Washington and Oregon and northern and central Idaho – may see drought conditions improve or end.