The calendar hasn't quite become the Red Sox' enemy. But that sort of reality isn't far away.
Before any panic ensues over the Red Sox' third loss in a row - a Yordan Alvarez-induced (2 home runs) Astros 5-4 win Saturday at Fenway Park - understand history suggests narratives aren't defined in the first two weeks of August.
In 2021, the Red Sox' went on a stretch from July 29-Aug. 18 that saw them go 6-14, dropping their postseason odds from 95.2 percent to 75.6 percent, while going from first-place in the American League East to six games out.
In case you forgot, the Red Sox made it to the American League Championship Series that season.
Last season, the Diamondbacks lost nine straight games to begin August. That put them two games under .500, dropping their odds of making the postseason to 13.4 percent.
Spoiler: Arizona were the 2023 National League champs.
The lesson is that as uneasy as things are for these Red Sox now (thanks to two straight losses to the Astros and some pitching uncertainty) this isn't necessarily the time or place to worry about momentum. It's a lot in life history helps remind us of.
But ...
If the Red Sox are going to point to this stretch as a simple bump in the road instead of a unfortunate detour there are issues that need to be fixed. The 2021 Sox managed to alter their course thanks to a healthy Kyle Schwarber, and the Diamondbacks found stability in their pitching staff while making their run last season.
Saturday's news of the day offered this version of the Red Sox that help might not be far away. But the question is: Will it be close enough?
Liam Hendriks threw a live BP session to rave reviews, totaling 20 pitches. He will execute another one on either Tuesday or Wednesday before heading out to a rehab assignment. A healthy and productive Hendriks can be a difference-maker ... if he returns while the Red Sox are still living the life of a postseason contender.
The last two games have served as an example of how the Red Sox are dependent on their relievers while desperately trying to sort out their starting staff. Friday night, Tanner Houck's outing was limited to 80 pitches in order to offer his arm a much-needed reprieve. That idea that the newly-refurbished bullpen could carry the load. It couldn't.
Since the All-Star break, the Red Sox relievers have the highest ERA (6.55) and highest opponents' batting average (.302) in all of baseball. Add in the the starters having the fourth-loftiest ERA, and it's not a good combination.
Cooper Criswell has Covid. Brayan Bello is on paternity leave. Nick Pivetta was forced to skip a start. And Kutter Crawford has a 10.61 ERA in his four starts since the All-Star break. Solutions need to be found.
Then there are the offensive jumper cables needed to help make up for the pitching downturn. That is where Triston Casas comes in.
Nobody is going to argue that Dominic Smith hasn't been a huge asset while serving as the Red Sox' starting first baseman. He has, however, taken a bit of a downturn during his team's recent dip. Since Casas began his rehab assignment, Smith is just 4-for-22 (.182) with 10 strikeouts and not a single walk.
While Alex Cora made it clear prior to Saturday's game that Casas' return wouldn't come on the current homestand, his 20-day rehab assignment clock runs out just a few days after Wednesday's series finale against the Rangers. (Aug. 20, to be exact.)
It certainly feels like a return by a healthy and productive Casas could be a much-needed jolt for this club, particularly while these pitching conundrums are being sorted out.
History suggests nobody's fate has been defined. But that sort of definition - either for good or bad - most likely isn't all that far away.