Some potential solutions to the Red Sox' biggest problem

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - Through all the drama, chaos and discomfort that paved the way for the Red Sox' 2023 last-place finish, there was one element of the equation that undeniably topped the list of culprits.

Finding a starting pitcher who get an out from the sixth inning and on simply wasn't part of the equation. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist (or molecular biophysics major) to understand that doesn't add up to a winning formula.

Look at the teams that won over 100 games. The Orioles' starters pitched six innings or more 75 times, with the team going 54-21 in those games. The Braves' record in such circumstances was 57-13. The Red Sox? Low and behold, they actually had a good record when starting pitchers went six or more innings (35-17), but math would suggest 52 such occasions weren't nearly enough.

So, now it’s about fixing what ails them.

Everyone understands that this free agent class’ calling card is starting pitchers, led by 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Spoiler alert: Everyone is going to want Yamamoto. He is young. He is an ace. He goes deep into games. We will spare you the exercise of painting the picture when it comes to the Red Sox’ pursuit of the Japanese starter. It is No. 1. But what should be of interest is who should be prioritized after Yamamoto.

In an effort to identify who might satisfy what the Red Sox are looking for - a starter who can go into the sixth inning - it’s a worthwhile endeavor to see some of the under-the-hood numbers for available pitchers when they get deep into games.

Here is a glimpse at some free agent starters and what they did when venturing into the increasingly uninhabited world of late-game pitching:

Blake Snell (Qualfying offer): Like Yamamoto, it’s obvious that the lefty will be at the top of the free agent power rankings. But there a feather in Snell’s cap that should allow for the Red Sox to take a hard look at him: He was one of the best in the game when it came to pitching effectively deep into games. While his 165 batters faced the third time through the order fell short of that of Lance Lynn (222), Aaron Nola (213), Kyle Gibson (207) and Jordan Montgomery (200), there were few who were as effective when arriving at such a place. His OPS against the third time through was just .502 (best of any free agent starter), with hitters managing just a .139 batting average and .451 OPS in the 20 games he pitched six or more innings.

Marcus Stroman: Keep in mind that the Cubs targeted Stroman. Keep in mind that Craig Breslow had an enormous say in all pitching acquisitions for Chicago. We can start there. But then you look at what the righty supplied when it came to pitching deep into games, and it gets a bit more intriguing. Stroman held opponents to just a .645 OPS against the third time through the order, while pitching into the sixth inning 15 times (with the Cubs going 11-4 in those games). And how good were those starts that went beyond just the first 15 outs? Hitters’ batting average against was .170, with the OPS against landing at .just .458.

Eduardo Rodriguez: It’s almost too easy to link Rodriguez to the Red Sox. But we should, anyway. And, make no mistake about it, this version of the lefty is at least a bit different from the one who would elect the ire of manager Alex Cora for not going deep into games. While the 156 batters Rodriguez faced a third time through the order was impressive (limiting them to a .640 OPS), what should be more eye-opening is how efficient he has become. Rodriguez pitched into the sixth inning 20 times, holding opponents to a .185 batting average and .485 OPS in such outings. His pitches per inning was also career-low (16).

Sonny Gray (Qualifying offer): Yes, he turns 34 on Tuesday. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t figured some things out when it comes to navigating his way into the late innings. Not only did Gray face an impressive 178 batters the third time through the order, but he held them to a .632 OPS. There were also 19 games in which the right-hander pitched beyond the fifth inning, showing a pitch-per-inning efficiency (15.3) he hadn’t possessed since 2014.

Aaron Nola (Qualifying offer): Nola epitomizes everything that the Red Sox should be looking for in anchoring their rotation. He pitches deep into games. He doesn't get hurt. And, more times than not, he's pretty good. Of the free agent pitchers, only Lynn faced more batters the third time through the order, with Nola managing a palatable .734 OPS against those hitters. And, to top it off, there is no free agent option (other than Yamamoto) that managed to pitch past the five innings as much as the 30-year-old (22 times).

Jordan Montgomery: Think Nola, but without a qualifying offer attached. Three straight years the lefty has made at least 30 starts, with the 2023 campaign witnessing the 30-year-old making 32 regular season starts, 21 of them going at least six innings. Also like Nola, he was no stranger to facing hitters the third time through the order, going up against 200 of them (totaling a .713 OPS).

Lucas Giolito: The feast or famine image of the 29-year-old - particularly after he left the White Sox prior to the trade deadline - raises some red flags. But Giolito does represent the type of pitcher would could potentially fit the bill. As his 19 starts of going six or more innings suggest, he expects to go deep into games, and does fairly well once in the later innings. Against hitters the third time through the order (197 of them), he held opponents to a .695 OPS.

Kenta Maeda: He is on the older side (35), and has had some injury woes of late. But what was flashed in the final month of 2023 - 2.81 ERA in four starts - should intrigue. Also, he knows how to maneuver through a game, as was evidenced by his numbers the third time through the order, which included hitters totaling a batting average of .180 and OPS of .614.

Michael Wacha: Speaking of strong finishes, did you notice how the former Red Sox concluded his final month of last season? Through those September starts, hitters managed just a .169 batting average and .504 OPS. Wacha did manage to see the third time through the order in 13 of his 24 starts, but didn't have great success once there with hitters managing an .854 OPS. (By the way, batters claimed an .855 OPS against the Red Sox ace, Bello, the third time through the lineup.)

Mike Clevinger: This one is intriguing because after all the controversy that surrounded the 32-year-old to begin the year, he ended up with a fairly solid 24-start season with the White Sox. One number that jumps out for the purposes of this conversation is his OPS against the third time through the batting order - .536. He also managed to pitch six or more innings 11 times.

Seth Lugo: Talk about heading into an offseason with some momentum! The 33-year-old's last start of the season for the Padres was one out away fron a complete game. It marked the eighth time in his final nine starts that Lugo had gone at least six innings, giving him 17 such outings for the season. He wasn't great the third time through the order (.833 OPS against), but the fact that he wasn't hesitant to live that life might say something.