Game 4 of the World Series had everything. Six home runs. Five ties or lead changes in the final four innings. Late game drama. And, of course, one of the most insane game-ending plays in recent memory, with Randy Arozarena's stumbling dash around the bases permanently engrained in Fall Classic lore.
The Brett Phillips base-knock and ensuing collection of Dodger mishaps tied the series at two, swung the momentum in Tampa Bay's favor and will cost Los Angeles a championship... or will it? L.A. came back to win Game 5 and can close out the series with a Tuesday win. And therein lies a question: does winning a crazy World Series game bring such a swing that it tilts the field to one side? The short answer, at least in recent history... sometimes.
Looking at the five most recent World Series, we pick the most jumbled game by win probability added (WPA - basically a fancy term for "who is most likely to win at this stage in the game?) and see if the winner of that game actually went on to glory.
2019 World Series, Game 1: Despite going seven games, last year's Fall Classic wasn't overly enthralling in terms of game-by-game entertainment. Here are the final scores of those seven games:
5-4 Washington. 12-3 Washington. 4-1 Houston. 8-1 Houston. 7-1 Houston. 7-2 Washington. 6-2 Washington.
Not much drama, right? So we'll pick Game 1, the closest of the series. The Astros jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first on a Yuli Gurriel double, but by the fourth the Nats tied it up. A three-spot in the fifth gave Washington a 5-2 lead, and although Houston plated a run in both the seventh and eighth, they went 1-2-3 in the ninth. So while the Nationals did win the "craziest" game and, ultimately, the series, safe to say the drama didn't lift them to such heights. Verdict: Yes.
2018 World Series, Game 3: The longest World Series game of all-time by both innings (18) and length (7 hours, 20 minutes) went the way of the Dodgers. Trailing 2-0 in the series, Walker Buehler pitched a gem with seven shutout innings, but a Jackie Bradley, Jr. homer off Kenley Jansen in the eighth tied the game at one, and eventually we were off to extras.
There, the Red Sox had the game wrapped up in the 13th when a game-ending ground ball to Ian Kinsler was botched, allowing L.A. to tie it up at two and, eventually, win it on Max Muncy's leadoff homer in the bottom of the 18th.
Despite all the drama and emotions that go into a seven-hour game, did it matter? Well Los Angeles blew a late lead the next night, and lost in five games. So they won the most memorable game of the Series, but it was their only win. Verdict: No.
2017 World Series, Game 5: This game was insane almost from the start. Los Angeles jumped out to a 4-0 lead, then Houston tied it in the fourth. Cody Bellinger hit a three-run homer in the fifth, then Jose Altuve did the same in the bottom half. Houston took a 12-9 lead into the ninth, then L.A. tied it. Finally, Alex Bregman walked it off for the Astros with a single in the 10th. Look at the win probability!
Photo via FanGraphs
Though Houston won, it didn't crush the Dodgers, who came back to win Game 6, before the Astros took Game 7 to win the franchise's first championship. Verdict: Yes.
2016 World Series, Game 7: Here's a case where the most memorable game came in a winner-take-all format, so yes, the Cubs winning the historic Game 7 against the Indians in 2016 was the ultimate insane game that almost single-handedly won Chicago a title. Rajai Davis' game-tying home run off Aroldis Chapman capped a three-run Cleveland eighth in which they went from down three, to tied 8-8.
Then came the end of the ninth, the short rain delay, Chicago scoring twice in the 10th, and Cleveland grounding out with the tying run on base to secure the Cubs' first World Series in 108 years. Verdict: Resounding yes.
2015 World Series, Game 1: One of two games this series to go well into extras (the clinching Game 5 went 14 innings in a 7-2 Royals victory), Game 1 is an oft-forgotten footnote in the series. The Mets took a 3-1 lead into the Royals' half of the sixth before K.C. tied it. New York regained the lead in the top of the eighth on an error by Gold Glove first baseman Eric Hosmer, but blew the lead in the bottom of the ninth on an Alex Gordon homer. In extras, the Mets stranded a pair in the 11th; the Royals left the bases loaded in the 12th. Then finally in the 14th Hosmer walked it off with a sac fly, setting the stage for the rest of the series. Verdict: Yes.
