Welcome back to Armchair GM, your No. 1 source for prospective Foxboro football fanalysis. This week we look at a top group from 2020 that will be counted on heavily once again in 2021: the backfield.
As the old saying goes, “If ain’t broke, don’t fix it”, right?
Just last spring former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum said, “the New England Patriots running back room arguably is the best position room of any position of any team in the league." Fans and team alike took heart in the idea that the Pats, in their first season post-GOAT, would have a solid running game to rely on. And rely they did, both via their backs and QB Cam Newton, finishing fourth in the NFL (2346 yards) in total rushing. When you consider their leading rusher, Damien Harris, didn’t crack 700 yards, that lends some validity to Tannenbaum’s statement. Harris, Michel, Burkhead, White, Taylor and Newton, running behind that powerhouse line, featuring franchise tag guard Joe Thuney and standout rookie Mike Onwenu, were arguably the steadiest unit on the team.
Problem was a running game was all the Pats had on offense in 2020. Their passing game was anemic, to put it kindly, almost non-existent at times, making them one dimensional and a bit predictable. A 7-9 finish and playoffs missed for the first time in over a decade later, the team is looking for ways to upgrade the offense in any way possible this offseason.
So how could the running game be a candidate for improvement headed into 2021? Let’s take a special AGM look and see if some ground game enhancements can bolster The Big O. Offense, that is.
LEAD BACK
The one-two punch of Damien Harris (third year) and Sony Michel (fourth year) should prove potent and powerful once again.
Harris, the presumptive starter, emerged when Michel was injured in 2020, showing the decisiveness, speed and power you want from a lead back. Even in limited time Pro Football Focus said Harris was the top-rated RB of 2020. Injuries made Harris a red shirt rookie, and dogged him a bit in 2020, making Michel, who returned to form behind the Pats dominant line, a necessary and effective complement. The Pats O-line was also top rated in 2020, though it does have question marks this offseason. Center David Andrews and LG Joe Thuney, both key cogs, are free agents. Though RT Marcus Cannon could return from his 2020 opt-out. Even with some transition it’s reasonably sound to believe the O-Line will be a team strength again in 2021. Thus a Harris/Michel rotation will be leaned on heavily. If one goes down the other gets bell cow work. A little depth wouldn’t hurt in the form of a low-cost FA veteran, or maybe a late round rookie power back, but lead back seems pretty pret-tay good.
THIRD DOWN/PASSING BACK
A staple of the Patriots offense since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, no team uses their backs in the passing game more often, or effectively, than the Patriots. However, with lead passing back James White an unrestricted free agent, and Swiss Army back Rex Burkhead recovering from a December ACL injury, seems we’ve the question mark that needs addressing for the upcoming campaign. This is a significant role on the offense, with running plays, screens, safety valve passes and blocking responsibilities aplenty. If White moves on, which we think he will (Miami and Green Bay reportedly could be in the mix for his services), and Burkhead isn’t himself again until 2022, then we have a big old offensive vacancy on a team that has needs all over on both sides of the ball.
For the record - yes, I’m aware JJ Taylor is on the team. Yes, I love the burst of elusiveness and energy the five foot five undrafted second year back brings. And yes, I think if you thrust him into the 3rd down back role he might get broken like a Lego thrown out of a fourth story window. Definitely can be in the mix for change of pace action and kickoffs, but anything more and we might be asking a wee bit much.
Think about the long line of great 3rd down backs making clutch first down after huge postseason play for the Pats; JR Redmond, Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Dion Lewis and now James White, with a side of Burkhead. Whoever steps into this role for 2021, and beyond, will have big shoes to fill and responsibilities galore, with a chance to shine, from Day One.
So, I did my research, watching far too much pro and college ball, pouring over draft profiles and highlight reels galore. But, being a fan of the people, I put the question out to the masses to get some of their takes, picks, crushes and suggestions...
Saw a few familiar names, some new ones, even a few surprises, in advance of sharing my suggestions. And with almost none of them likely to be calling One Patriot Place their home anytime soon, you know, because Belichick, let’s throw a few names into the mix as to who might join the vaunted Pats RB room...who might replace James White as the new passing downs back...and who also might have the elusive and highly desirable “lightning in a backfield” potential of Alvin Kamara or Antonio Gibson that the Patriots just can’t pass up on. Think we might have a couple names for you.
FREE AGENCY
The free agent RB market is stocked adequately as far as lead backs and home run hitters go. A few like Aaron Jones will command big bucks, and Leonard Fournette likely made himself rich with a solid postseason run in Tampa. Otherwise it’s a crop of ageless vets like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson, mixed with gadget backs and underused talent looking for a chance after their rookie deal. Again, the Pats aren’t looking to pay for a lead dog. That’s just not how they do business.
Some of the RFA talent - KC’s Darrel Williams, Philly’s Boston Scott and especially Denver’s Philip Lindsay - present an intriguing case. Williams is a bigger back who was underused in KC, Scott a crowd pleasing JJ Taylor type energy ball, and Lindsay a two-time thousand yard rusher who’s undersized yet blazing fast to the hole and in the open field. He’d look dynamite in a Pats uniform, but it’s doubtful New England pursues should Denver place a 1st or second-round tender on him. Plus, if the Pats were to go after an RFA Bronco I’d hope it would be WR Tim Patrick, who I mentioned in my Armchair GM: WR edition.
THE DRAFT
Though this is considered a QB and WR rich draft, there are a sneaky amount of utility backs and speedy alternatives to the traditional between the tackles types. The two stud starters up top, Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, will be long gone by the time the Pats consider the backfield. So here are a couple names of guys I think would contribute immediately and become integral parts of the Patriots offense, on third down, in passing situations, anywhere possible, especially after 2020!
DEMETRIC FELTON
One of the breakout stars of the Senior Bowl, Felton is a dynamite hybrid talent that can do everything, explosively, from all over the offensive formation. His versatility is something the Patriots would covet, as our own Andy Hart noted a few weeks back. Forget if he’s not a traditional running back or doesn’t look the part, this is the kind of talent you find a way to fit into the game plan. Like an Antonio Gibson, or like the player he says he models his game after, Alvin Kamara. Think Curtis Samuel, just not with the expensive free agent price tag (and I made the case for Samuel in my AGM: WR Edition as well).
KENNETH GAINWELL
Anyone who draws praise like that from a draft and talent evaluation whiz like Daniel Jeremiah deserves more than a cursory glance. And Jeremiah is not alone, as draft expert Dane Brugler of The Athletic has Gainwell, who has the most RB ready name, as the fourth best RB on the board. A third down back candidate who can line up all over and deliver versatility and much needed YAC? Please and thank you.
JEMAR JEFFERSON
The Oregon State standout could be in the Foxboro crosshairs as the Patriots reportedly are among a handful of teams to have met virtually with Jefferson already. Perhaps they see him as a perfect James White heir, as evidenced by his impressive collegiate highlights. Definitely getting some Sweet Feet vibes here.
CHUBA HUBBARD
Hubbard might be one of the biggest mysteries of this draft, at any position. His 2019 highlights make him look like the second coming of Marcus Allen, only faster. Granted, most backs could score from the holes the Oklahoma State star saw. Still, once he gets space HE GONE. Over two thousand yards and twenty one tuddies in 2019 left teams salivating for his 2021 eligibility. He came back to Earth in 2020 with just over 600 yards and 5 TDs, but that was in a COVID shortened season of seven games. So is he a track star in RB clothes, or a just an opportunistic sprinter who will struggle against the tighter windows and tougher tackling of the NFL? Hard to pass up late Day 2 or early Day 3 on talent like this, though.
TREY SERMON
If the Patriots are looking for a bigger back to help form a three headed rushing attack hydra with Harris and Michel, who could eventually replace Sony when the Pats likely decline his fifth year option, then Trey Sermon might be their man. He comes from a pro ready RB factory like Ohio State, where he owns the single game rushing record with 331 yards. Like QB Justin Fields he was a monster against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, proving he can dominate on the big stage as well. He’s not a top pick, but could be a big mid-round value add for teams looking to stock up on backs for a 2021 rushing attack.
Oh, and for the record, we did not forget fullback. We know how important fullbacks are to the Patriots offense, and that they have feelings, too. It’s just that with returning starter Jakob Johnson, veteran Danny Vitale likely opting back in and sophomore tight end Dalton Keene all in the mix, the position, and various deployments of it therein, seem pretty stocked. Love to see it.
And there we have it! Hope we informed and entertained the most die-hard of Pats fans with this latest look from the socially distanced cheap seats. We’ll be back in a few weeks with a best of the rest edition, covering new names and some we missed, then a post free agency reset. Until then thanks for reading. Be well, get lubed and Go Pats!
