Way back in 2012, the Patriots selected edge defender Chandler Jones (No. 21 overall) and linebacker Dont’a Hightower (No. 25) in the first round. Little did they know, those two picks would set something of an ignominious tone for the next decade.
New England traded Jones for an offensive lineman and a second-round pick during his fourth season in Foxborough and, despite fans pining for his return, hasn't come back even after other veterans have left and found their way back to Bill Belichick in the end.
Hightower, though, signed an extension after the team paid his fifth-year option and only just now hit free agency again after this past year. Despite questions about his future in the NFL and his fit with the team, there's still a non-zero chance he could return in a reduced role, according to some taking the temperature around the team.
Since Hightower's selection in 2012, the Patriots have made seven selections in the first round of the draft. He is the last to stay with the team past the conclusion of his rookie deal.
Last week's trade of 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry to the Chicago Bears sent yet another top selection away from New England, adding to a list of woeful luck/scouting on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. Harry unequivocally busted in Foxborough, failing to make an impact over three seasons unless it was as a blocker and joining the likes of Dominique Easley, Malcolm Brown, and Sony Michel as first-round picks who couldn't convince the Patriots to keep them long-term.
2018 first-rounder Isaiah Wynn, though having his fifth-year option picked up by the team, might be headed in the same direction with even adequate tackles commanding strong salaries. Though the Patriots might be fine rolling with Wynn going into 2022 at either left or right tackle, he could be under-the-radar trade bait just as Harry and Shaq Mason were.
Unfortunately, though, the lack of success in the first round of the draft only skims the iceberg that has repeatedly punched holes in the Patriots' vessel in recent years.
Including 2012 -- the year Hightower was drafted -- the Patriots have made 94 total picks in the last 10 years.
How many players have they re-signed? 10. That's a hit rate of just 10.6 percent, which, despite not knowing the similar success rates for other teams, feels gross.
The lucky few: Nate Ebner (2012, Round 6), Jamie Collins (2013, Round 2), Duron Harmon (2013, Round 3), James White (2014, Round 4), Shaq Mason (2015, Round 4), Joe Cardona (2015, Round 5), Joe Thuney (2016, Round 2), Ted Karras (2016, Round 6), Deatrich Wise Jr. (2017, Round 4), and Ja'Whaun Bentley (2018, Round 5).
Collins and Karras, of course, had to leave and come back to sign their second contracts with the team. (Collins was traded to Cleveland in his fourth season but re-joined the Patriots in 2019 and again in 2021. Karras signed a free-agent deal with Miami in 2020 before returning briefly last year.) Thuney, meanwhile, signed a franchise tag to stay a fifth season in 2020.
Anyway, that's the list.
As tough as the draft can be to hit on at times, it feels like the Patriots' overall struggles in the past three years and dearth of elite talent can be traced back to this inability to scout, develop, and retain homegrown talent. Not wanting to overspend in free agency is fine. But you can't be a team that stays frugal in free agency and misses in the draft.
Furthermore, struggling in the draft is how the Patriots ended up spending record amounts of money on "okay" and "good" players to fill out their 2021 roster as opposed to focus on one or two elite talents at the top of the market (though they might have done just so if the 2020 team hadn't been as talent-deficient as it was).
The 2021 draft might be a step toward changing that with Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, and Rhamondre Stevenson all looking like hits so far. What's more: Kyle Dugger and Michael Onwenu appear to be on the road to salvaging something useful from that 2020 class that looks like another bomb.
But right now, there's a real chance the only player from the 2019 class that sticks around is punter Jake Bailey. Second-round pick Joejuan Williams will likely not survive cuts this fall. Third-round pick Damien Harris, while clearly a good player, plays a position that is valued less and less in terms of contract extensions and also has Stevenson waiting in the wings behind him. Harry, Chase Winovich, and Jarrett Stidham have all been traded.
The Patriots cannot hope to compete in the division unless they do a better job in the draft, which would then allow them to focus their free-agency efforts on true difference-makers as they come available. Though 2021 and this year's draft, to an extent, provide hope, admitting defeat on players like Harry reminds you just how far the Patriots have to go.
For more on this, check out the latest episode of "1st and Foxborough."