Who’d have thought that a mid-October matchup of two 2-3 teams would be such a potentially pivotal matchup, chock full of drama with layers of nuance to boot? And yet here we are, Patriots @ Browns, Sunday at 1pm at FirstEnergy Stadium, intrigue and storylines aplenty for the football addicted masses. Just how the NFL likes it.
Can the Pats upset the Browns?
New England vs. Cleveland represents the latest round of Patriots coach Bill Belichick taking on the team that first employed him as a head coach. Belichick is 8-2 all-time against the Browns in New England, yet this Sunday he enters the game as an underdog, which is how the Pats have spent the majority of the season thus far (Sunday marks the fourth time in sox contests the Pats are dogs). So you have the “revenge” factor there, though that’s an old grudge. Then you have some player familiarity in Browns interim QB, we’ll call him, Jacoby Brissett, pressed into action due to the DeShaun Watson suspension. Brissett was drafted by the Pats in 2016 and even started two games that season of the Tom Brady DeflateGate suspension. Brady returned that season in Week 5...at Cleveland no less. But we digress...Brissett, who’s been better than expected this season (at least until the 4th quarter of Cleveland’s three losses) said he has fond memories of his time in New England. Yet you know he’d love to get one against his first coach, a coach who dealt him away to Indianapolis in 2017 for receiver Philip Dorsett.
New England steps in with their own interim QB, if you will, in Bailey Zappe, who, in addition to his first win as a pro under his belt, enters with a lot of emotional momentum.
Since taking over for Brian Hoyer, Zappe has injected some life into the team, the fanbase and the narratives surrounding them. Though hardly putting up Pro Bowl numbers there’s been a noticeable uptick in energy across the board. And while he has yet to be announced officially as the starter Sunday for the Pats, the thinking locally is that he can handle the job while Mac Jones continues to recover. Jones looked better at practice this week, now almost a full three weeks removed from his high ankle sprain vs. Baltimore. And while the thinking is Mac Jones gets the job back once healthy enough to see the field his coach hasn’t exactly confirmed that’s the case. So we don’t have a full-blown QB controversy in Pats Nation, but there’s the potential for some unexpected twists to the 2022 script if Zappe gets the win and plays well Sunday in Cleveland.
And then we get to where this game will likely be decided; the trenches and ground game. Cleveland has running back Nick Chubb, the NFL’s leading rusher and, alas, the Georgia RB the Pats should have drafted in 2018...but it is what it is. And Chubb is a powerhouse and force of nature who’s as strong as he is relentless. While Bill Belichick always likes to take away his opponent’s strength it may be difficult to just shut down Chubb, and his backfield mate, the multi-talented Kareem Hunt, entirely. A strong showing from the Pats run D, which has been suspect at times, will be needed to not allow Chubb to dictate terms, pace and tempo Sunday. Same goes for New England with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is the starter and workhorse now for the Pats with Damien Harris sidelined with a hamstring injury. Stevenson is powerful and shifty himself, coming off his best day as a pro last Sunday vs. Detroit. New England’s O-Line is healthy and playing extremely well, so a continued effort to run powerfully and minimize how much of the game is forced onto the shoulder of Zappe is likely. A battle of strength vs. strength, a throwback style game if you will...just how the football hardos like it! Somewhere Jim Brown and John Hannah are smiling.
As you can see we have revenge game narratives, QB drama, intrigue, injuries, team similarity...everything that could possibly make a game between two losing teams as interesting as possible. We’re pumped for this one and can hardly wait. Let’s see what the experts who get paid to make the big calls have to say!
A majority of ESPN’s experts are in favor of the Pats coming out on top...good to see the Extremely Smart Patriots Network in action!
Locally, The Boston Globe went five for six in favor of the Pats (et tu, Jim McBride?)
The CBS Sports staff was split right down the middle, four vs. four, on Pats @ Brownies.
SI’s MMQB went three vs two in favor of Cleveland come Sunday.
Bleacher Report had a five to two majority in favor of the Patriots, believing New England would find a way to slow down Cleveland just enough to rush past them (we’ll take it!)
The Sporting News guys are split...BUT Vinnie Iyer calls the Pats winning his “Upset Pick Of The Week” (is a win when you’re a less than FG dog really an upset?)
The Athletic overwhelmingly is in favor (8-2) of the Browns winning straight up (not peeking behind that paywall anytime soon!)
SB Nation writers are in favor of New England winning by a slim three to two margin (again, we’ll take any and all positives and wins around here!)
The Ringer likes the Pats with the points...but can’t figure out who will win. Hey, who’s making their picks, Glenn Ordway?)
The 538 Machine is slightly in favor of the Browns (54% chance to win)
Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com (who went 11-5 ATS last week) sees a dub for Pats Nation.
And Pro Football Talk is, much like most of the experts and America, SPLIT-SKI!
We see a close one, worth the watch all four quarters, with the Pats coming out on top 23-20. A result like this would lead to a zesty Six Rings Postgame Show on WEEI immediately following the final whistle (tune in!), a continued surge in energy and interest in the Pats and some intriguing if not dramatic conversations to ensue the following week for sure. Hopefully we’ll be here for it.