Is it possible running backs have emerged from their dark ages of 300+ passing yard games and air raid offenses, into a rushing renaissance?
In Week 5, it’s too early to declare the rebirth of the run game. The sample size is too small and too specific. But come on! It’s fun to use what we’ve seen this year to speculate on whether the NFL has underestimated, and unvalued, the impact of elite running backs.
While Christian McCaffrey seeks medical care in Germany, Derrick Henry’s performance with the Ravens has been nothing short of transcendent. The big back delivered an 87-yard run to the endzone on national television in Sunday Night Football, and according to Next Gen Stats, ran as fast as 21.29 mph. Henry made a mockery of the Bills’ defense and now enters Week 5 with 480 rushing yards, putting him on pace for more than 2,000 in the regular season. Henry reached that benchmark once before, in 2020, with the Titans.
His play buoyed Tennessee to first place in their division.
McCaffrey and Henry have both been considered statistical outsiders compared to their position elsewhere in the league: McCaffrey exploded in Kyle Shanahan’s wide-zone running scheme, and Henry is just a physical freak who certainly benefits from having the league’s most talented dual-threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson. But look around the NFL, and the most productive offenses take the ground game and the personnel seriously.
Saquon Barkley has been the brightest spot of a Philadelphia team going through it. Barkley rushed an average of 8.4 yards per carry, on 10 carries, against Tampa Bay last week. The loss came a week after the former Giant put up 147 rushing yards against New Orleans – who have a stat-stacked back themselves in Alvin Kamara. Kamara is on pace for more than 1,400 rushing yards in the league’s most prolific offense.
Elsewhere, one-two punches of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the Lions and Brian Robinson and quarterback Jayden Daniels are rounding out other fruitful offenses in the NFL.
Comparing the top running back situations is a bit like comparing appples to oranges to grapes, but this much is clear: compared to other weapons, these guys have been a bargain for their teams this year. Henry is the steal of the season at just an average of $8 million a year, and a $5.1 million cap hit this season. He’s making 30 look like the new 22 for running backs.
Honestly, that is just criminal. It's like Leonardo DiCaprio is picking these backs.
Barkley’s three-year deal with the Eagles is a bit bigger at $12.58 million a year, but still about half of what a free agent receiver like Calvin Ridley is making with Tennessee. Even Kamara’s $15 million per year looks thrifty compared to high-performing receivers.
Running backs have long been knocked for their short shelf lives. The preference for sexy offenses revolving around quarterbacks and receivers have devalued the position to the extent that Steelers running back Najee Harris has signaled his support for the creation of a running back union separate from the NFL Players Association back in 2023. It looked like a full-blown labor crisis for the position.
Again, it’s a small sample size, but big passing games are down leaguewide. Through the first four weeks of 2023, quarterbacks had recorded 27 300+ yard games in the air. This year, that number was just 15.
NFL defenses have flipped the script on their counterparts to the extent that Mel Kiper advocated for a ban of the two-high safety formation on ESPN’s Get Up in early September, blaming it for decreased passing production.
But you know what? Defenses are allowed to respond to the Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrows, Justin Jeffersons, and Tyreek Hills of the world. The question now is whether they, and NFL front offices, will have to once again seriously consider running backs as well.