The New England Patriots will try to escape this weekend’s impending Nor’easter when they fly down to Jacksonville Saturday to face the Jaguars Sunday afternoon.
Trips to the sunshine state, however, have resulted in more losses than what’s typical for Patriots over the last 15 years.
The Patriots maintain a league high win .645 regular season win percentage dating back to the 2011 season, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs. But when playing in Florida – be in against the Miami Dolphins, Jaguars, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers - that win percentage drops all the way down to .421.
They lose more than they win down there.
Their 19 games in Florida have presented some bizarre and disastrous performances, including the 34-33 “Miracle in Miami” loss to the Dolphins to 2018. But earlier that season, that team dropped a game at Jacksonville, 31-20.
Then, there was the strange stretch of 2013, 2014, and 2015, when Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s Patriots managed to only play the Dolphins in Miami each year – but lost every time they went traveled to Hard Rock Stadium.
Is it just the heat? Sunday’s weather is projected for sunny and mid-80’s, more than 20 degrees warmer than what the conditions in which the team has practiced this week.
“Better be hydrated,” Patriots defensive tackle Milton Williams said Thursday. “Get an IV, some Gatorade. I'm fitting to put a hoodie on for practice now. Everybody’s saying it’s cold outside, but I’m trying to make myself get accustomed to the heat a little bit more. I feel like if you hydrated, you should be alright.”
The Patriots emerged victorious from both their trips to Florida last season: they beat Miami 33-27 and Tampa Bay, 28-23.
Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels hopes to draw inspiration from playing in Miami in Week 2, during September, last season.
“Certainly, our experience last year in Miami early in the season is something you can draw on,” he said. “[It’s] very similar in terms of temperature, or what have you. But nothing we can do about that. We’re hydrating, we’re practicing, we’ll be ready to go. And I’m sure we’re try to use our depth the way that you always do when you go to a climate like that.”
New England’s depth has been tested early: two players, right guard Mike Onwenu and safety Dell Pettus, were added to the injury reserve to start this week. They join starters Harold Landry III and A.J. Brown, who continue to rehab injuries there, as well. A slew of other players got banged up in New England’s home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers, including safety Craig Woodson, edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones, and tight end Eli Raridon.
And although Jacksonville isn’t known to be, well, Seattle when it comes to overwhelming home crowds, the Jaguars have been very successful there as of late: they’re looking for their sixth-straight regular season home win, dating back to November 2025. They’ve scored an average of 38.8 points per game at home during that stretch.
So, keep an eye out on the Patriots’ defense. They’re likely to be grinding on Sunday.
