Buffalo, NY (WBEN) - Are we flattening the curve?
Both the number of new people entering hospitals daily and the number of critically ill patients requiring ventilators has dropped in New York. There’s no doubt that’s good news, but is it a sign of ‘flattening the curve?’
“I personally would like to see at least five or six days (of positive numbers),” said Dr. Kevin Shiley, Catholic Health’s Director of Infection Prevention and Control. “With testing being the way it is, you might get periodic spikes in testing when new shipments of tests come in… some forms of testing that aren’t rapid will take a while to come back.”
That’s why Dr. Brahm Segal, the Chief of Infectious Diseases at Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, prefers to look at other numbers when determining progress on the ‘curve.’
“Deaths related to COVID,” Segal said. “It’s one of the most reliable endpoints because we clearly aren’t able to test as many patients as we'd like.”
Segal said that the number of deaths per day has not significantly increased, which is a positive sign. However, Segal said that it would take a matter of weeks, not days, to determine whether or not the curve is being flattened.
And even though the recent numbers show the beginning of a promising trend, there is fear that could easily change.
This week, Easter and Passover holidays will create the temptation for families to gather despite warnings against doing so.
“I’ll be as blunt as I can. The virus doesn’t care if it’s Easter or Passover,” Segal said.
“Whatever positive trends we’re seeing… we may see that be completely reversed. If we break down our guard for social distancing as the holidays come, we may see a surge in cases."
Dr. Shiley agreed that this is a critical time.