November is getting closer, and while it seems pretty clear who the two major party candidates will be, visions of which one might win a second term in the White House is much hazier. This Tuesday, the fate of one potential presidential election scenario is being decided in Pennsylvania.
Voters are headed to the polls to determine who will be in the running for 17 congressional delegation seats, along with other offices. According to USA Today, that congressional delegation could have a major impact if the presidential election is contested or tied. Whatever party holds it will determine its single vote to decide the race.
“The Constitution is pretty clear on how this plays out. If there is no winner in the Electoral College, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 states that the decision goes to the House of Representatives while the Senate picks the vice president,” wrote Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution in 2020. “But the voting in the House is different from the Senate. In the vote for vice president, each Senator has one vote. But in the House each state has only one vote for president – regardless of its size – and a presidential candidate needs 26 states to win.”
Per USA Today, Democrats currently have a 9-8 advantage.
Polls for former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden also indicate that the 2024 election could be close, if not a tie. While polls last week showed Trump ahead of the president, Morning Consult and Marist polls from this week showed the opposite.
Additionally, Trump is now well known for his unfounded claims that he lost the 2020 election due to voter fraud and people have feared he’ll contest the 2024 election as well. He’s already started a new “election integrity” campaign that has been labeled as a disinformation campaign, according to USA Today.
In Pennsylvania, Tuesday elections are also expected to provide insight on some of the key issues Trump and Biden are expected to butt heads over during election season: abortion and the Israel-Hamas war.
As things stood Tuesday afternoon, Democrats currently hold a two-seat majority in the Pennsylvania state House and Republicans hold a five-seat majority in the state Senate and Democrats are hoping to flip at least three seats to make it a 25-25 split in the Senate. If they do, Democrats would actually have a majority with the tie-breaking vote of Democratic Lieutenant Gov. Austin Davis.
Abortion
In particular, one of those races is poised to have an impact on abortion policy, along with the race for another state office.
“Reproductive rights have been a major topic in the attorney general’s race and in the Republican primary for the 1st Congressional District,” said USA Today.
Abortion was a motivator for left-leaning voters in the midterm elections following the Supreme Court’s unpopular decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Since abortion protections have still not been codified in federal law, many states have put strict restrictions on the procedure.
Moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is running to retain his seat in the 1st Congressional District and he’s being challenged by another Republican who believes abortions should be banned in all circumstances (even rape and incest). That challenger, Mark Houck, has been acquitted of criminal charges stemming from an altercation at an abortion clinic. He’s the founder of the Catholic men’s religious group the King’s Men.
While Trump supported the Supreme Court’s ruling, he’s said that he isn’t interested in pursing a federal ban on abortion. He’s also criticized some Republican lawmakers for being “too harsh” with abortion restrictions. Biden on the other hand, is vocally in support of codifying Roe v. Wade.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro previously held the attorney general position in Pennsylvania. Michelle Henry completed his term but is not running for the position. Now, five Democrats and two Republicans are vying for the spot.
“All five Democratic candidates for attorney general have committed to protecting the right to abortion and access to FDA-approved medications such as mifepristone,” said USA Today. “Meanwhile, the Republican candidates have said that they do not believe the state constitution guarantees the right to an abortion. As attorney general, both would leave the issue for the state legislature to decide.”
Israel-Hamas war
Another divisive issue that has popped up in recent months is the Israel-Hamas war. Israel began its mission to eradicate the militant group Hamas from Gaza after the Palestinian group executed a large-scale terrorist attack. Although the U.S. has supported its longtime ally, Israel, it has also criticized the country for actions that put civilian lives at risk.
“In Pennsylvania’s 12th District, which includes Pittsburgh and some of its suburbs, first-term progressive Rep. Summer Lee, is facing a primary challenge over her opposition to the Israel-Hamas war,”, and U.S.
military aid to Israel said USA Today. “Bhavini Patel, a more moderate Democratic congressional candidate has tried to closely align herself with President Joe Biden.”
According to the outlet that election “could reveal just how salient the issue of the war is for Democratic voters,” as conflict in the Middle East persists.
Other issues
Democrats (six of them) are scrambling to flip the 10th Congressional District held by GOP Rep. Scott Perry. He was a former chair of the far-right Freedom Caucus and a key figure in efforts to overturn the last presidential election results.
Those Democrats believe they can win over moderates and independents since Perry is so associated with the far-right.
“If Pennsylvania Democrats hold their narrow majority in the state House and win the state Senate in November, it would give Gov. Shapiro enormous power to pass his agenda in the last two years of his term,” said USA Today.
