Words like “great” and monikers such as “the best pitcher in baseball” have widely been used to describe Tarik Skubal.
It is undeniably quantifiable. The big lefty with the overwhelming heater and devastating change up has pitched like a first ballot Hall of Famer the last two seasons. No other MLB pitcher has come close to matching his performance over that period.
Genuine brilliance rings hollow, though, unless it includes postseason success. Last season, in Game 5 on the road, the Guardians hammered Skubal for five runs six innings during an American League Division Series. A fifth-inning grand slam by center fielder Lane Thomas did Skubal, and subsequently the Tigers, in.
A year later, Skubal gets a chance for redemption in Game 5 of the ALDS at Seattle.
Skubal’s legacy as a Tigers’ legend has been sealed. He has been that sensational, albeit for a short time.
His two-year run is reminiscent of Denny McLain's back-to-back Cy Young Award campaigns in 1968 and 1969, and Justin Verlander in 2011 and 2012 when he led AL pitchers in WAR each season.
Yet, there are even more fond memories of Mickey Lolich and Jack Morris, who dominated the postseason for the last two Tigers’ World Series championship teams.
Lolich won three complete games in the 1968 World Series upset of the Cardinals, including Game 7 on two days' rest.
Morris had two complete game wins as the Tigers ousted the Padres in 1984. He also won his start in the American League Championship series. too.
Continually, we’ve heard the Tigers' big edge in the postseason is Skubal, especially considering he is going to be making his second start in a five-game series.
But the Tigers lost his first start, in which Skubal was typically dominating except for two obvious mistake pitches that Jorge Polanco blasted for solo home runs.
Skubal was 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA vs. Seattle in the regular season.
The Mariners do present a unique challenge for Skubal because Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Polanco and Eugeno Suarez are such formidable right-handed power threats.
It’s not as if Skubal has struggled overall during the postseason. The Game 5 start last season was the only real stinker. He has a 2.14 ERA and 0.818 in five postseason starts. The Tigers have won three of those games.
Run support is going to matter, too. The Tigers will benefit a great deal if Skubal is backed by early runs. The bullpen must come through. The Tigers have to be solid in the field. It’s unreasonable to expect Skubal to pitch more than seven innings.
Skubal’s innings were managed well during the regular season. He threw 195 innings. He pitched mostly on five or more days' rest.
Skubal pitched on four days' rest, like tonight, six times. He allowed no runs in three of those games, working seven innings twice, and his only MLB complete game against the Guardians in which struck out 13, the final out, a strikeout, coming on a 103 mph fastball. He allowed just a run in two other starts on four days' rest. Skubal was touched for five earned runs in a May start on four days' rest vs. Boston. It doesn’t seem like it will be much of a factor at Seattle.
But this is the type of game that could ultimately reveal Skubal’s value. The $400 million figure has been bantered about like a drumbeat. No other MLB pitcher has a contract worth more than $325 million.
On such a big stage, with the Tigers' season at stake, this will be a massive test of Skubal’s value.
A $400 million pitcher, you’d think, would win this game.
The result could say a lot about how Skubal is perceived moving forward.
Obviously, Skubal, at minimum, is very good. Dominating this game would suggest he is truly great.