On paper, how can the Tigers not be better?
They won 86 games, made the postseason for the first time in a decade and won a series. They didn’t lose any players they wanted to retain, and added $65 million in free agents to the young core that surged down the stretch.
But the Tigers are not prohibitive favorites in a division, the American League Central, where other teams didn’t noticeably improve.
The over-under on Tigers’ wins this season, according to most betting sites, is 83.5. At first glance, it seems unreasonable -- but it’s not.
The Tigers' sprint to the finish last year represented a small sample size.
Baseball is known for one-hit wonders. The Tigers had several players come out of the woodwork and perform far beyond expectations.
Do we know for sure Parker Meadows if will rake like he did the second half of the season? Or if Beau Brieske and Will Vest will again be dominant out of the bullpen?
The assumption is that Riley Greene is a star in the rise. Yet, what if he is “only” a 4.0 WAR player instead of 5.4 this season? Tarik Skubal is going to pitch well, but it could be he won’t be MLB’s very best again.
This isn’t meant as a doom and gloom lament about the Tigers. It is written by someone who does think the Tigers, with the exception of one opponent factor, will win the Central. It’s just realistic to understand that baseball is, perhaps more than any other of the four major sports, prone to pronounced production swings.
The past two decades have provided many such examples for the Tigers in hitters like Chris Shelton, Brennan Bosch and Spencer Torkelson.
The Tigers tried to go for it after closing 2021 with a flurry by signing high-priced free agents Javy Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The signings were a disaster, not only because Baez’s skills badly waned along with E-Rod’s undependability, but because the Tigers' supposed breakout seasons the year prior turned out to be a mirage:
Eric Haase, Casey Mize, Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman and Akil Baddoo all experienced dramatic drops.
Tigers’ president of baseball operations Scott Harris seems to have a better feel for this than his predecessor Al Avila. It looks like the Tigers have loaded the pitching staff with numbers, which is wise. Pitching was by far the biggest reason the Tigers reached the postseason and won a series last year.
But the position players aren’t nearly as deep.
The biggest factor in winning the division is out of the Tigers’ control. That is the health of the Big 3 hitters for the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Brian Buxton. If they each play 130 games or more, the Twins will win the division -- a big "if" considering how injury-plagued they have been.
The Tigers don’t have strong infield defense. The left side is of particular concern. Know this: There will be numerous surprises.
That doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t be better this season. It just means there is almost as good a chance they won’t be. Baseball is not linear. It curves and twists.
Expect that type of ride in 2025.