Justin Fields will turn 25 next week.
During his third NFL season in 2023, he completed 61.4 percent of of his passes for more than 2,500 yards in 13 games for the Bears. He was the Bears’ leading rusher with 657 yards. Fields threw 16 touchdown passes and was intercepted nine times. The Bears lost their first four games. They were 7-6 the rest of the way, including victories over NFC North rivals Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay.
While Fields wasn’t that bad, he wasn’t that good, either.
He has made progress each season since being selected 11th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. It’s just not the rapid gains anticipated in today’s NFL.
So it is almost a foregone conclusion the Bears, who fleeced the Panthers out of the first overall pick, are going to take a quarterback, likely USC’s Caleb Williams, and trade Fields.
Most of the speculation centers around a pair of second-round draft picks as the going rate.
It has made Fields a polarizing figure. He has a rare gift as a runner. It ranks with Lamar Jackson in terms of speed. He is also a freight train at 230 pounds. He, like Josh Allen, forces safeties to make career decisions while tackling him. His arm is strong.
But it’s almost like a curse to be able to make so many plays with his wheels. It tends to bring Fields out the pocket sooner than normal. It’s the ultimate get out of trouble card, but it is played too often. As big, strong and tough as Fields is physically, it still makes him more injury-prone.
The best NFL QBs still do most of their damage from the pocket. Those who have mobility, and most do, save it for certain crucial situations. Fields is getting better at that, but it would be a misnomer to suggest he has turned the corner. It’s more like the corner is still a block or two away. There remains, though, the possibility he will get there.
His development has been hindered by playing behind a subpar offensive line, and being surrounded by limited weapons.
If the Bears don’t improve in these areas, Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels will have the same issues Fields did.
Fields has a year left on his rookie deal. He’s a salary cap bargain at $6 million in ‘24. The team acquiring him would be able to exercise a fifth-year option ($25 million), or sign him long term if excels. The Bears’ new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, was integral in Geno Smith finally tapping fully into his talent at Seattle.
Clearly, the best fit is Atlanta. Fields is from there. The Falcons have extraordinary offensive weapons such as Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson that have been wasted.
It’d definitely give Falcons’ first-year offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, fresh out of the Sean McVay
coaching tree, plenty of ingredients to cook a much better meal.
Meanwhile, the Bears, who haven’t had a winning season since 2018, nor won a playoff game since 2010, would be trying to win with a rookie QB, albeit a gifted one.
It’s the ultimate damned if you do, damned if don’t equation.
What if Williams is another Bryce Young instead of C.J. Stroud? What if all the Bears did for three years was prepare Fields to shine for another team?
It should be anything but a certainty the Bears will trade Fields. While an obvious benefit of a rookie QB is salary cap relief for four years instead of one compared to Fields.
It should be noted the Bears can either take a premier non-QB No.1 overall, or pick up draft capital in a trade.
The only certainty is the decision figures to make or break the Bears for years to come.