Timing is everything in professional sports.
Present a solid team at the wrong time in a tough division, and just reaching the playoffs is a monumental struggle. Have a very good team, perhaps on the verge of becoming great, in a poor division and a mediocre conference, and the future is now.
The Lions, blossoming in an otherwise bottomed-out NFC North and so-so conference, need to fly through the widening window of opportunity staring them straight in the eye. They have a last chance to significantly upgrade their sudden championship contender in less than two weeks, Halloween 4 p.m. to be exact, before the NFL trade deadline.
Garnering draft capital, which had been the Lions’ primary goal during the first two years of the Brad Holmes-Dan Campbell regime, is no longer a priority. It should now be putting the finishing touches on a championship team.
The Lions, 13-3 in their last 16 games entering Sunday’s visit to Baltimore, have come that far, that fast. The mere mention of the Super Bowl no longer brings a sarcastic smile to the collective faces of this town nor nation.
While theoretically, anyway, the Lions should be better next season because of a developing young nucleus secured by three straight excellent drafts, the sheer opportunity presented may never be better.
The 49ers and Eagles remain formidable, but are vulnerable because the Lions have a cupcake schedule remaining in comparison to those squads. Everything should be done to secure home field advantage throughout the postseason. Can you imagine if the Lions not only host a home playoff game -- a given at this stage -- but one in the conference semifinals with home field a possibility for the NFC championship game?
The Lions have significant draft capital to offer. It includes an extra 2024 third-round selection from the T.J. Hockenson deal. It’d be worth it to trade a first-rounder at this point if it could bring a finishing piece. Remember, it will be in the late 20s or 30s overall.
The Lions' priorities at the trade deadline should be, in this order: 1) cornerback, 1A) running back, 2) wide receiver, 3) edge rusher and 4) kicker.
While Detroit's defense has thrived despite a rash of injuries in the secondary, another injury at outside corner would be devastating. Obvious target No. 1 should be Denver’s Patrick Surtain. The ninth overall pick in the 2021 draft, he’d be costly. Surtain is unsigned after his rookie contract expires. While he hasn’t been the shutdown cover corner anticipated this season, the 2022 first-team All-Pro is still a dramatic upgrade from Jerry Jacobs. He is a hard-nosed tackler, who’d fit perfectly the Lions’ culture.
Would he be worth first- and third-round picks and a current young player? Absolutely, especially considering the Lions’ would have one of their starting cornerback spots locked down for next season with a $6.7 million cap hit, It is not much more than they signed the injured Emmanuel Moseley ($6 million) for this season.
After Surtain, the best target for the Lions would be running back Derrick Henry. He’d be worth Detroit’s first-rounder, or multiple picks, even as a rental player. And before you go bonkers with the “running backs don’t have that much value” rant, please understand Henry isn’t just another running back. He is a nuclear bomb as an inside runner, 250 pounds of utter destruction. And the Lions depend mightily on running the ball to set up the pass. It’s been the basis of their stunning turnabout.
Think of Henry, who is having another stellar season despite being on a rubbish team with little postseason hope in Tennessee, running behind the Lions’ offensive line. What's more, Jahmyr Gibbs is a poor pass blocker, and quarterback Jared Goff has emerged as the Lions’ MVP. Henry is widely regarded as the best pass blocking running back in the league. Rolling the dice with Henry would be far better than the many stop-gap, blah options the Lions have to augment their running back room.
Detroit's receiving corps is underrated. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a star, Kalif Reymond underestimated and Josh Reynolds has a special bond with Goff. Sam LaPorta is a wide receiver in a tight end’s body. Jameson Williams adds speed, if not much else at this stage.
But St. Brown has a balky ankle and there are some good receivers available, and perhaps not for much expense. Denver’s Courtland Sutton comes to mind. Another underrated, but ideal option for a playoff run is veteran Adam Thielen. He is having an incredible comeback year under extraordinarily tough circumstances in Carolina. They carry third-round value, at best.
At the higher end is Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos have already picked up the $13 million fifth-year option on his rookie deal. That might not be a number the Lions want to inherit for the position, especially with St. Brown due to start earning big-boy money, but Jeudy is nonetheless intriguing.
There is much fan interest in an edge rusher, but at what cost? It’s a want more than a need for the Lions. Danielle Hunter has had contentious contract negotiations with the Vikings. He is on a one-year deal with the franchise tag waived, successfully transitioned from a 4-3 defensive end to an on-the-ball 3-4 linebacker. Hunter leads the NFL with eight sacks.
Lions GM Brad Holmes has made a couple notable trades with the Vikings, including the deadline deal involving Hockenson. The in-division factor likely won’t matter.
The Lions were in a desperate salary cap situation when Holmes became GM, and one of his first moves was to move on from high-priced kicker Matt Prater. Detroit’s kicking has been borderline awful since. It’s clearly an issue, and it raises the question whether it would be wise to get Prater back. He is 3-of-4 beyond 50 yards this season for Arizona, including a 62-yarder. Even at 39, he’s still got it.
These would represent high-end additions. A move or two in this realm would come with cost. But it’d be worth it.
But it’d be worth it. Regret would be even more painful if the Lions’ land in the world of what could have been because they didn’t act now.