Tom Izzo is at a crossroad.
His Spartans, just as they appeared about to roar into the postseason, suddenly dropped back-to-back home games to Iowa and Ohio State, each below .500 in Big Ten play.
Michigan State is 17-11 overall, 9-8 in the Big Ten and set to face No.2 Purdue on the road Saturday.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has MSU as a nine-seed in the NCAA tournament, and trending down.
In the preseason, the Spartans, loaded with veteran returning talent and a highly-touted incoming freshmen class, were ranked fourth in the AP Poll.
Michigan State basketball was built on tough defense, crashing the offensive boards relentlessly and a refusal to blink under pressure in March.
While seeming to have the necessary components to do all of the above, the Spartans have simply not gotten it done.
Of course, we’ve been here before with Izzo.
Just last season, he was skewered after MSU blew a 13-point lead in the final 94 seconds to Iowa. Social media and sports talk radio was abuzz with the notion he’d lost his fastball. The Spartans record was 17-11 overall, 9-8 in the Big Ten. Sound familiar?
By the end of the NCAA tournament it was a moot point. The Spartans downed Southern Cal and Marquette to reach the Sweet 16. Only an overtime loss to Kansas State kept MSU from the Elite 8.
Armed with what appeared as an ideal blend of solid experience and promising incoming youth, it was anticipated MSU would piggyback off that strong finish.
But it was obvious from the opening loss to James Madison, MSU was overrated. The Spartans also lost their first Big Ten games, at home to Wisconsin and at Nebraska, in December.
There have been flashes. Impressive wins at home over Baylor and Illinois.
James Madison is 27-3, so that defeat wasn’t nearly as bad as it seemed at the time.
Izzo has taken MSU to the Final Four eight times, fifth most all time.
He is 69. Roy Williams walked away from North Carolina at 70. Mike Krzyzewski hung in there until 75.
Izzo reached the Final Four as recently as 2019, and his 2020 squad, led by Cassius Winston, appeared to be peaking at just the right time before the pandemic took away a legitimate NCAA championship shot.
Winston, Denzel Valentine, Draymond Green are emblematic of classic Izzo-developed stars. Each started out slowly before building to crescendos as upperclassmen.
That simply hasn’t happened with Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, Malik Hall and Jaden Atkins.
They have all developed into double-digit scorers, but that killer instinct Izzo’s teams are famous for isn’t there.
Tenacious is a good word to describe a typical Izzo team. This one hasn’t been. Tentative is more like it.
The freshman class has fallen far short of the desired impact, and the chances of players sticking around for four years to be molded into greatness by Izzo is far less likely in this era of the transfer portal and NIL.
There are experienced coaches who are thriving with the changed landscape. Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, who like Izzo was mentored by the late Jud Heathcote, has excelled.
But it’s as if Coach K and Williams walked away at just the right time.
And Izzo and Nick Saban are very close.
Izzo has been the one constant, steadying force at MSU where turmoil has been a way of life for decades.
Being driven has never been an issue. He prospers from the usual motivation points prevalent in sports, especially what he perceives as disrespect.
He captured the Big Ten’s last NCAA title, but 2000 was nearly a quarter century ago.
At the beginning of this season, it appeared the Spartans had a bonafide chance for Izzo’s second title.
Not anymore. Izzo’s teams have often been written off only to make deep postseason runs. This team has experience but reaching the Sweet 16 again would take a complete turnaround.
In the meantime, another year will pass.
Izzo is in the Hall of Fame.
He has coached his son and made enough money to buy Iron Mountain thrice over.
He has seen iconic contemporaries he is mentioned with walk away before it turned sour like it did for Jim Boeheim.
This much is for sure: Final Four appearances are no longer taken for granted in East Lansing.
Izzo has a well-deserved reputation for intensity. At times, he’s gone dangerously close to crossing the line.
But he is, above all else, effectively introspective. Izzo pokes and prods, in-season and out-of-season, until he gets it right.
Yet, this challenge is uniquely different.
So far, frankly, it hasn’t been so good.