Before Casey Mize took the mound Monday afternoon against the Yankees, with temperatures in Detroit in the 30's, snow on the way and winds blowing out to left, A.J. Hinch wondered to Chris Fetter whether Mize would be able to grip his splitter. Sure enough, Mize sailed the first one he threw. He sailed smoothly from there.
Mize has navigated some rocky waters in Detroit. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 after undergoing surgeries on his elbow and his back. When the Tigers made their long-awaited return to the playoffs last season, Mize was left off the postseason roster after struggling for most of the year. The former No. 1 pick entered this spring fighting for a spot in Detroit's rotation. This feels like the other side of the storm.
"The elements were a little tough," Mize said after holding the Yankees to one run over six innings in Detroit's fourth straight victory, 6-2 amid spring flurries at Comerica Park. "I had trouble at times gripping the ball, but it is what it is. Good day, glad we got the win."
Mize knew these days would come. He has too much belief in his arm to have considered the alternative. This was once the best pitcher in the country, the consensus pick at the top of the draft. Mize never lost that swagger, even as he lost his way, at times, on the mound. He couldn't help but smile Monday when asked if he always knew he'd emerge from the depths of the past few years, because the answer in his own mind couldn't have been clearer: "Yes."
"I have very high expectations for myself, always have, always will," he said. "Were there moments of doubt? Sure, but at the end of the day, I always expected more of myself and knew I would get back to being a quality contributor and even more."
Mize was a quality contributor in 2021, and again early last year. This is what "even more" looks like: in his first two starts of the season, Mize has allowed one run, five hits and struck out 12 over 11 2/3 innings. The six walks are more than he'd like, including a couple that got away from him Monday, but Mize has so far been the best starter in a rotation teeming with talent, which lifts the ceiling for the Tigers. They have dynamic arms from top to bottom, and back to front in the bullpen.
Mize's undoing last year was an inability to miss bats. He couldn't command his splitter -- his neutralizer -- and couldn't keep hitters off balance as a result. Their swings said they were ready for anything he threw. Their at-bats took a toll on his pitch count and eventually his body; Mize lost two months in the middle of the season to a hamstring injury. Their swings this year, said Mize, "are telling me that the things I'm trying to do out there are working,"
"I’m trying a lot of different new stuff and changing things, but the hitters are going to tell me what’s going to stick. And I like what the hitters are telling me so far," he said.
Mize induced 15 whiffs in his season debut last week against the Mariners, including five out of seven swings on his splitter. He induced 10 more against the Yankees, including six out of eight swings on his splitter. He mixed in three variations of his slider to keep New York's sluggers from sitting on his hard stuff, which was a tick down in the cold. Granted, hitting isn't fun in conditions like Monday's. But neither is pitching, and Mize made life rather miserable for the visitors.
It's too early to be giving much weight to stats, but two trends burdened Mize last season. He was in the eighth percentile of MLB pitchers in hard-hit rate, and the 21st percentile in whiff rate. He was battered by the end of the year. Through two starts this season, he's in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 96th percentile in whiff rate. Mize said this is the best he's felt in his career about the way hitters are reacting to his pitches.
"I’ve had some good stretches in the big leagues where things were going well, but to start the year like this, it’s really positive, especially against one of the best offensive teams in baseball right now. You just start getting some funky swings, and swing and miss. That’s what I mean by the hitters telling me things are good, where it’s not always the foul ball that they just missed. You know when guys are on stuff or not, so I like their feedback so far."
The Yankees have been the heaviest-hitting, highest-scoring team in the bigs to start the season. Mize muffled them for six innings, with some help in the third from Jake Rogers, who picked off Ben Rice at third base with one out and Aaron Judge at the plate. It changed the outlook of the inning for Mize, and really the rest of the day. Judge nicked him for an RBI single in the fifth, but Mize responded by striking out Cody Bellinger on a splitter to escape further damage.
Mize completed his outing with nine pitches in a 1-2-3 sixth, and left the mound a winner for the second time this season. He doesn't put much stock in pitching decisions considering the circumstances that surround them, "but if it says my name in the win column, I’m certainly happy about that," he said. "It means our team won."
For two years, Mize couldn't do what he loves most. For another year, he couldn't do it to the standard that he expects. When he was sidelined, all he wanted to do was pitch. When he was back to pitching, all he wanted to do was pitch better. It's dangerously early, but Mize is pitching better than ever before.
"If you take away what I love, which is to play, it’s really difficult to go through that," he said, "so I’m glad I’m back out here doing it."
The sun broke through by the end of Monday's game. Casey Mize has weathered the storm.