After the first practice of training camp, optimism as high as the sun in the sky, David Montgomery reflected on two years of coming painfully close to glory and called this "the Year of the Reckoning" for the Lions. Four months later, another reckoning is upon them: Is it time for the defense to lead the way?
The Lions lost to the Eagles last Sunday night largely because Dan Campbell leaned on a strength that might no longer exist. This is not the offensive line that bullied teams in years past. That much is clear. It came into glaring focus against the best defensive front the Lions have seen this season when they went 0-for-5 on fourth down and 3-for-13 on third. When they tried to pass, Jared Goff was pressured into poor throws. When they tried to run, they got stuffed.
Campbell appeared to coach that game under a couple false impressions: that it would require touchdowns to keep up and that his offensive line hasn't sprung leaks. He failed to adjust until it was too late, which he tacitly admitted after the Lions' 16-9 defeat when he said that a more "conservative" approach would've given them "a better chance of winning that game than some of those decisions I made."
Even allowing for what Campbell called "unique" circumstances, between the blustery conditions and a couple instances where the offense was in "no-man's land," two of the Lions' failed fourth down attempts came in field goal range -- one would have been from 21 yards, the other from 50 -- and two others led to field goals for the Eagles. A potential 12-point swing on a night that points of any kind -- not necessarily touchdowns -- were at a premium.
Detroit's "freaking defense is playing outstanding right now," Campbell said Tuesday. It is more talented and more cohesive than ever in his time as head coach, Kelvin Sheppard picking up where Aaron Glenn left off last year before the unit was crushed by injuries. It ranks fifth in the NFL. So does the offense, but the latter has been far more consistent than the former. Campbell didn't take over for John Morton as play-caller on a whim.
Over the last four games, the Lions have allowed an average of 267.4 yards, which would rank second in the league over the course of this season, and 4.36 yards per play, which would rank first. And the defense is only getting healthier, with No. 1 corner DJ Reed, All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph, No. 2 corner Terrion Arnold and defensive ends Marcus Davenport and Josh Pashcal all nearing returns from injury.
With that as the backdrop, Campbell was asked Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket if it might be time to modify his aggressive approach on offense, which has been a hallmark of the Lions since he arrived. Field position, especially in games against defenses like Philly's, might be more valuable than an extra crack at a first down. Conceding the ball or the chance at a touchdown might be less damaging than turning down points.
"I come out of those games and I think about everything and I look at everything," Campbell said. "I try not to play the hindsight game. I know this: no matter what we do, how we go here, just like we’ve done going on year five now, we’re going to play to the strength of our team, however that goes. And you learn, you evolve as you go. As the season goes, you figure out who you are and truly what your strengths are, and you adapt and you adjust. Every game you have to adjust. And the opponent is different every week."
From the moment he showed up, Campbell has always -- always -- pointed to the O-line as Detroit's signature strength. It has been the backbone to their identity. So it was telling, almost jarring, when he was asked to name the strengths of this team 10 games into the season, seven to go, and Campbell listed, in order, their "explosive skill players" on offense, "a quarterback that can put it on the money and can facilitate the ball to those skill players", and then every aspect of "our freaking defense," followed by their "coverage units on special teams."
"I think our front seven and our backend is sticky, man, rush and coverage, we stop the run, we have the right balance over there. Shep's doing a hell of a job, that whole defensive staff," Campbell said. "We can stop the run, we can cover backs, tight ends, we can cover their receivers, and we can make it a hard, long day for them over there."
Campbell is exceptionally honest for an NFL head coach. He does not say things simply to say them. And without saying it directly, he acknowledged for maybe the first time in his tenure in Detroit that the O-line is not an obvious asset. That should change the way the Lions attack teams moving forward, even if it clashes with Campbell's offensive mind and every strand of his competitive fiber.
It doesn't mean the Lions should pack it in and punt on every fourth down, not at all. Campbell's gambles, more often than not, give his offense and his team an edge, and are part and parcel to "who we are," as he said Sunday night. They put stress on the opposition. And entering the Eagles game, the Lions did have one of the highest fourth-down conversion rates in the NFL this year at 72.2 percent, actually higher than last year.
But the opponent matters, along with your own personnel. It should not have been much of a surprise that after Jahmyr Gibbs was stuffed by Jalen Carter and Jaelen Phillips on 3rd and 1 near midfield early in the second quarter, he was stuffed again on 4th and 1 by Carter and breakout defensive tackle Moro Ojomo, running behind Graham Glasgow, Trystan Colon and Kayode Awosika, two backup guards and a former guard playing center.
And while it was a surprise to see Penei Sewell whiff on Phillips on 4th and goal three yards from the end zone in the third quarter, it shouldn't have been a shock that Awosika was beaten cleanly by Jordan Davis up the middle. The interior pressure prevented Goff from stepping up in the pocket and finding Brock Wright wide open for a walk-in touchdown. He instead forced an incomplete pass to a well-covered Amon-Ra St. Brown in the back of the end zone.
"Sometimes it's just one of those games," Campbell said. "And sometimes if things aren't on with one player or another, the other player or the other players can pick up the slack a little bit and maybe it goes unnoticed or the play still gets made and we're all excited because it was a huge play. But when everything is just off a little bit -- from that, to the pressures that are there, or the precision of the routes, the depth, the technique, to my play calls -- then, man, it doesn’t help. And it becomes the perfect storm. We were a little off and just couldn’t ever really find it, find that true balance."
The Lions will have plenty of chances to re-establish their offensive flow against poor defenses in the weeks ahead, starting Sunday against the Giants. But it won't really matter if they can't sustain it against the types of teams they will have to beat in the playoffs -- assuming they get there -- like the Eagles, Packers and Chiefs, all of whom have smothered Detroit this season. The Lions' four most prolific performances this year have come against the three worst defenses in the league by yards allowed per play -- the Commanders, Bengals and Bears -- and the Ravens, who at the time were missing their two best defensive linemen.
The ceiling for the Lions' offense will always be high thanks to their wealth of talent. Few teams, if any, boast as many playmakers around a top-tier quarterback, though the loss of Sam LaPorta looms large, especially on key downs. But their floor isn't as stable as it used to be without the same pillars up front. Campbell has to be honest about that in his game-planning and play-calling moving forward.
Behind last year's line of Sewell, Kevin Zeitler, Frank Ragnow, Glasgow and Taylor Decker, the Lions converted two-thirds of their fourth down attempts when the NFL average was about 57 percent. Their ability to move the line of scrimmage swung the numbers in their favor and changed the calculus for Campbell, to the point that he really wasn't gambling at all. The gamble by the end of the season and for most of seasons past would have been giving the ball back to the opposing team and trusting a porous defense.
Behind the current line of Sewell, Awosika, Glasgow, Tate Ratledge and a battered Decker, the calculus has changed again. At every position other than right tackle, the Lions have an inferior version of the player they had last year. It's hard to imagine a drastic change in the weeks ahead. With seven games to go, Detroit is outside the playoffs looking in. Against teams with elite defenses -- especially up front -- it's time for Campbell and the Lions to start trusting their own.