Life is good for Jamaal Williams. The Lions running back is headed for free agency coming off the best season of his career. Of course, Williams would just as soon avoid the racket of a payday. Asked this week at the Super Bowl about his approach to free agency, Williams groaned like he was being asked to come inside and do chores.
"First thing, I do not like change," Williams told the Jim Rome Show. "But if I gots to because of the business part of the game, I’ll do it. But I would love to be in Detroit. I feel like it’s a second home to me."
The feeling is mutual. Williams has been everything Brad Holmes and the Lions envisioned when they signed him to a two-year, $6 million deal in 2021. Everything and more. Not only did he lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns and become Detroit's first 1,000-yard rusher in nearly a decade this season, he emerged as the heartbeat of the team. "Our leader," said former assistant head coach Duce Staley said.
"One of the best teammates I’ve ever had in my life," said Taylor Decker, the Lions' longest-tenured player. "We love him."
And Williams loves them back, "the coaches, the players, everybody," he said. "The environment. And the fans."
"I just like the unity, the loyalty, the pride of being a Lion. No matter what the Lions have been in the past or what they’ve been through, they come with that new energy ever year," Williams said. "At the same time, we’re putting in the work and we’re showing people this is a team to be reckoned with."
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In case you couldn't tell, Williams intends to be back. While he acknowledged that 2022 "was a great year" for the Lions, who rallied from 1-6 to finish 9-8, "it still didn't meet our satisfaction," he said. "We wanted to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl."
Asked on ESPN's First Take about his expectations for 2023, Williams said, "We takin' the North. The change has started."
Williams headlines a long list of priority free agents for Detroit, including linebacker Alex Anzalone, receiver DJ Chark and defensive linemen Isaiah Buggs and John Comsinky. The Lions, no doubt, will have to pay up to keep him. How much? Depends how much is out there on the open market. (And how much they want to guarantee on a new deal.)
Consider this: James Conner was coming off his fifth NFL season at age 26 after rushing 202 times for 752 yards (3.7 yards/carry) and 15 touchdowns in 2021 when he signed a three-year, $21 million extension with the Cardinals. Conner, though, does much more in the passing game than Williams.
So consider this: Kenyan Drake was coming off his fifth NFL season at age 26 after rushing 239 times for 955 yards (4.0 yards/carry) and 10 touchdowns in 2020 when he signed a two-year, $11 million deal with the Raiders, worth up to $14.5 million with incentives. Drake, like Williams, is a traditional halfback.
Williams is coming off his sixth NFL season at age 27 after rushing 262 times for 1,066 yards (4.1 yards/carry) and 17 touchdowns in 2022.
And then there's Leonard Fournette, who was coming off his fifth NFL season at age 27 after rushing 180 times for 812 yards (4.5 yards/carry) and eight touchdowns in 2021 when he re-signed with the Bucs on a three-year, $21 million deal, worth up to $24 million in incentives. Like Conner, he brings extra value as a pass catcher.
For the Lions, the cost to retain Williams likely lies somewhere between Drake and Conner/Fournette. Spotrac.com estimates his market value at $4.1 million per year, but that feels a little low. Would a three-year, $14-15 million deal get it done? With D'Andre Swift entering the final year of his contract, Detroit could use some stability in the backfield.
If the Lions are wary of that much term for a soon-to-be 28-year-old running back, how about two years, $12 million, with extra in incentives? That would double Williams' average annual salary and reward him further if he continues to produce the way he did this season.
Holmes and the Lions do have to be careful here. For one, they can only pay so much for heart and soul. Moreover, Williams had more touchdowns this season than he had in his first five seasons combined, and 13 of them came from inside the two-yard line. And prior to 2022, his career high in rushing was 601 yards. He bulked up his numbers this season thanks to the seventh most carries in the NFL.
None of this is meant to diminish what Williams just accomplished. There is real value in durability and dependability, especially at running back. Williams deserves a substantial raise, and all signs point to him getting one in Detroit. Indeed, he's already talking like he'll be back.
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