During his extended stay on the injured list, Kerry Carpenter had a lot of time to sit back and watch his teammates. He marveled at the growth of Colt Keith.
"It's pretty impressive to have the start that he had and to work through that and do what he's doing," Carpenter said Tuesday ahead of his return to the Tigers' lineup after recovering from a back injury that cost him two and a half months. "I've seen some of the stats where, like, from May 1st he's been the best rookie in the big leagues basically.
"And it's not surprising. I've played with him enough in instructs and spring training where I remember telling people, 'I love his swing, I love what he's got going on.' Yeah, he's going to be a stud. The fact that he figured it out so quickly is really impressive."
Through April, Keith was the worst qualified hitter in the majors. He was batting .154 with a .387 OPS, just a few months after signing an extension worth up to $82 million over nine years before he'd played a game in the big leagues. He admitted, with a laugh, that it was a grind "to come to the field every day knowing that even if I go 4-for-4 today, my average won't be out of the .150's." To cope, Keith decided to ignore the numbers and "just focus on the game at hand, and doing that I was able to dig myself out of that hole."
Tuesday on MLB Network Radio, A.J. Hinch was discussing the Tigers' young hitters when he said, "Colt Keith, we are going to start talking about him in the Rookie of the Year race, because of all the things that he's done and how he's gotten there."
"Oh wow," said Keith, sitting at his locker a few hours later. "Is it a close race?"
In short, not yet. The award right now likely belongs to Colton Cowser, the Orioles outfielder who has 18 homers and leads AL rookies in fWAR. Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil, who's likely to face the Tigers this weekend, has a strong case as well. And Yankees catcher Austin Wells and outfielder Wilyer Abreu and outfielder/infielder Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox all have better odds at the moment than Keith. But Keith is closing the gap.
Among American League rookie position players since the beginning of May, Keith is tied for first in fWAR (1.8) with Cowser and Max Schuemann of the A's. He's first in slugging (.454), OPS (.786) and wRC+ (120), second in average (.282) and RBI (38) and tied for second in homers (11). Remove the rookie distinction and Keith ranks among some of the top hitters in baseball during this stretch. His 23 multi-hit games this season are eighth most in the bigs.
"He's a real hitter," said Hinch. "He's a real threat. And he is defending himself against lefties. I'm glad he's ours."
Keith said that when he arrived in the majors this season, one of his goals was to win Rookie of the Year. Had you told him at the end of April that he'd be in the conversation come August, he laughed and said, "Shoot, the way I was playing, I would have just hoped I was still in the big leagues by the end of the year."
"I mean, I was really struggling. Just the way I was able to turn it around and keep getting better every day, I'm really proud of that. I think it shows mental toughness, and dedication, and motivation. And being able to stay healthy for as long as we've played has been great, shoulder's held up. Yeah, definitely would have been surprised for you to say after April that I'm in the Rookie of the Year conversation, but I'm obviously happy that it went the way it did. I'll be a better player because of it," he said.
When Keith staggered through April, Carpenter said the two of them talked often. They have similar approaches at the plate. While it might "look different to the naked eye," Carpenter said, "we both love to be ready super early and stay on our back leg — he might do it better than me. I love watching him hit and his approach using the opposite field, hitting every pitch, fastball, off-speed, whatever, it doesn't matter."
A left-handed hitter, Keith is batting .294 against left-handed pitchers. He does not give up the plate. He doesn't walk much, but he rarely strikes out for a rookie. Overall, he's hitting .288 against fastballs, a testament to his ability to use all fields. He's hitting just .202 against breaking pitches, an area where he should improve with time. And for all his success since May, even more so since July (.868 OPS), Keith is still searching for the best version of himself in the box.
"I haven't really felt like myself all year with my swing and stuff, but I think we're getting there," he said. "The more at-bats I take, the more comfortable I get. Hopefully something clicks here in the next couple games and I hit a heater and we go the rest of the year feeling like I did last year where I felt like I was the best guy on the field at all times and felt like I could drive every ball."
It's harder than ever for young players to hit big-league pitching. The fact that Keith, who turns 23 on Wednesday, has seemingly figured it out as a rookie bodes exceptionally well for his future. His odds are long to win Rookie of the Year, and the growth in his game is much more significant than any trophy on the mantle. But why not go for it? In a race where he was getting lapped this spring, Keith is mounting a charge down the stretch.
"I think if I can just keep on the gas these last six weeks, try to win games, hopefully make a playoff push and just keep having good at-bats and get hot the rest of the year, then it's definitely possible," he said. "I don't know what the stats look like, but I think if I can get on a heater these last 45 games, my numbers will take care of themselves and I'll definitely be in the conversation. Plenty of time left to make a splash and make some noise."
