Not so long ago, the Tigers might have already signed the starting pitcher they're seeking. They might have even made a run at Framber Valdez. That was then, when late owner Mike Ilitch spent without restraint. This is now, when a $13 million decision in Tarik Skubal's arbitration hearing Wednesday could determine whether or not the Tigers reach back into their pockets to fortify their roster for 2026.
"If the Tigers end up winning the hearing, they’ll have a significant amount of money, more than $10 million, to potentially sign one more pitcher if they want," MLB insider Jon Morosi said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "And if they lose, they won’t have that money. And this is certainly in contrast to the way it used to run, you could say, 20 years ago. They would have just signed the additional pitcher no matter what. That’s not the way it works anymore. There’s more of a budget. They’re more conscious about that kind of thing."
The Tigers have been linked to free agent pitchers Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez and Jose Quintana. On Wednesday, an independent arbiter will rule whether the Tigers pay Skubal $19 million or $32 million in 2026, which represents the largest gap in MLB arbitration history.
"And so in a very sort of upside-down idea," said Morosi, "there’s a lot at stake for the Tigers as it relates to how the roster looks, because if they have the lower salary for Skubal there is more money for them to sign one more player, which is what they want to do."
What Wednesday's decision likely won't impact is Skubal's future with the Tigers beyond this year. This is likely his final season in Detroit either way, barring a dramatic change in conversations between the Tigers and Skubal's camp.
"I don’t look at it as necessarily moving the needle all that much with respect to how likely it is that they’re able to sign Skubal long term, simply because there’s not much of a chance of that happening, as far as I’m concerned and based on everything I’ve been told this winter. I don’t see it as being terribly likely," Morosi said. "They’ve never really made any meaningful progress that I can discern on a long-term extension."
If the Tigers do wind up signing another free agent, it's expected to be an arm. But after their offense sputtered down the stretch and into the playoffs last season, "I agree that they should have added one more bat," Morosi said. Recent signees like Eugenio Suarez (one year, $15 million with the Reds) and Luiz Arraez (one year, $12 million with the Giants) would have made some sense for Detroit.
Instead, "you’re looking at the roster and asking yourself, how are they better? How are they better than they were when we saw them in Game 5 in Seattle? And I don’t think they are," Morosi. "I think they’re about as good. But I would have a hard time saying that they’re going to be appreciably better.
"Now, the caveat is that the front office believes that (Kevin) McGonigle will help this year and (Max) Clark will help this year, and if those players are as good as the front office says they are, then everything might work out just fine for the Tigers in 2026. But they’re putting an awful lot — an awful lot — of importance on their own ability to develop high-end players that are impactful early in their careers. Because if they’re wrong, then they are going to be a bat or two short and the outcome is probably going to be similar to what it was the last two years, which is that you’re not quite good enough to get out of the Division Series."