Two years into a six-year, $140 million deal, the Tigers are doing all they can to fix Javy Baez. It won't be easy.
"Right now," Baez told reporters last week, "I feel like nothing is working for me. Absolutely nothing. Not on defense, not on offense, not base-running. It's just the way I'm playing. I know I'm not this guy you guys are seeing out there."
"I think Javy is at his lowest that he's been, certainly as a Tiger, but just generally in his career," A.J. Hinch said the next day.
As Hinch and president of baseball operations Scott Harris wrapped up their first season together in Detroit, they were asked Monday a simple question that comes with a complex answer: How does Javy Baez get better? Harris, who saw Baez at his best over multiple seasons with the Cubs, started by saying: "The work is good." The results, obviously, haven't reflected it.
"He is working really hard behind the scenes," said Harris. "I think there are some things we can change about the specific things that he's working on to make some adjustments that help him both at the plate and in the field, but we haven't done it yet. We haven't gotten the best version out of Javy. We have to do that this offseason. We have some things we're going to share with him in the exit interview, some new ways we feel like we can support him this offseason. It's going to take an organizational effort in Javy."
The fear for the Tigers is that Baez, who turns 31 in December, is a sunk cost and a lost cause. One of the 25 best players in the majors by fWAR over the six seasons before he signed in Detroit, Baez has since been one of the 25 worst. He was the second worst hitter in the bigs this season by wRC+. He was dead last in on-base percentage (.267), for a team that has placed quite the emphasis on getting on base. Baez also committed the third most errors (19) in the bigs, though his work at shortstop still grades out as a plus.
"It's hard," said Hinch, who had a hand in bringing Baez to Detroit when the former regime signed him two offseasons ago. "When players struggle, just so you know, as the manager or coaches, we're not mad at him. That's the biggest emotional difference between being on the inside and being on the outside. We're encouragers by nature. We're trying to find solutions for him, but it's hard."
It's especially hard, said Hinch, when Baez "says he can't see the ball," which he has admitted to, at times, the past couple seasons. Because "if you're not seeing the ball well, that's not something that is necessarily a quick fix."
"I think the hard part is watching him really endure the self-induced pressure and the scrutiny, let alone the external pressures," said Hinch. "But it doesn't stop us from trying to find solutions, it doesn't stop Javy from interacting. He's not in his corner at his locker disengaged."
At the plate, Baez has to get back to hitting the fastball. That's where he's always done the bulk of his damage, even last year when his bat went mute. He hit .201 and slugged .280 against fastballs this season, compared to .273 and .463 last season. He slugged over .500 against fastballs with the Cubs when he was a two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger winner and MVP candidate.
Think of his first hit with the Tigers, a walk-off missile off the right field wall on Opening Day in Detroit, on a 98-mph fastball up in the zone. Think of his first homer with the Tigers, a game-winning bomb to left on a 93-mph heater up by his eyes. Expanding the zone will always be part of his offensive profile. The Tigers have to figure out how to help Baez get the most out of those swings again.
"He's gotta adapt, and I feel like he can adapt to the challenges that are created by (age)," said Hinch. "Our hope this offseason is that one year into this hitting department, our programs will start to (yield) the gains that he can have to be a more productive player."
Hinch had no choice this season but to drop Baez in the order. The Tigers' second highest-paid player spent most of the second half batting seventh or eighth as younger hitters like Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter moved their way up. Hinch believes, or at least hopes, that by relieving some of the pressure on Baez the Tigers will get a better player, and little more bang for their buck.
"Just be our shortstop," said Hinch. "Be the best version of yourself that you can be. He's gotta get better in a lot of areas and we're going to challenge him. We've always been very direct with him, he's been very direct back. He's engaged to attack these things. My hope was that we try to lift the burden of being Javy Baez off of him. Part of that is a high-pay player, part of that is the All-Star, part of that is 'El Mago.'
"Other than Miguel (Cabrera), nobody gets more attention on this team every time he steps on the field than Javy. Moving him down in the order behind some emerging younger players, my hope is that he just goes and plays shortstop."
That's not to say the Tigers are giving up on Baez's bat. They're not. They can't afford to with $98 million remaining on his contract. But Hinch knows Baez better than maybe anyone in the organization. He visited Baez in his native Puerto Rico last offseason so they could forge a personal connection, which paid dividends early this season when Hinch benched Baez for a base-running blunder in Toronto and Baez responded with his best stretch of the year. He posted an .888 OPS over the next 20 games and the Tigers went 13-7, one of their best stretches of the year. Baez slumped for basically the rest of the season.
"The effort that's going into trying to find solutions, just because we haven't been fast at finding them, it isn't nonexistent," said Hinch. "Now, trying harder doesn't necessarily satisfy people when the expectations are super high. Do I think we can just try harder again next spring? No. We gotta make some changes, and he knows that. He's aware. He's not disengaged. We can bring a better version of him to Lakeland in the spring."
Part of fixing Baez probably involves lowering expectations. He's been on a downward trend offensively since 2019, his last All-Star season. He's on the wrong side of 30, which raises concerns about his bat speed, which is further concerning for such a free-swinging hitter. He's still an asset in the field -- he was sixth this season among shortstops in Outs Above Average -- and maybe that's his value on a team with some emerging talent at the plate. But $23 million per year is a lot to pay for a flashy glove and an errant arm.
The Tigers believe, or least hope, that Baez has more in the tank than that. And they're convinced that he's motivated to make changes and prove it: "We can't get anywhere unless we have real investment from the player in himself. And we have that," said Harris. "We just gotta find new ways to reach him."
What remains of Javy Baez, remains to be seen.
