The worst news for the Magic might be the best news for the Pistons.
Franz Wagner has been ruled out for Game 6 Friday night, sidelined for a second straight game with the calf strain he suffered late in Game 4. Suddenly, it feels like the Pistons have a real shot to steal the series after falling into a 3-1 hole.
Wagner is the difference for the Magic, who are an ordinary team without him. His return late in the season after missing more than three months due to injuries is what made Orlando such a dangerous 8 seed. They wouldn't have wound up in that spot had Wagner been healthy for most of the year. And the Pistons almost certainly wouldn't have wound up here, in danger of becoming the third team in NBA history to win 60 games in the regular season and lose in the first round of the playoffs.
The Magic are 23-14 this season, playoffs included, when Wagner plays (at least 10 minutes) -- a 50-win pace befitting their overall talent. They're 25-25 when he doesn't, including their 116-109 loss to the Pistons in Game 5 Wednesday night when Cade Cunningham went off for 45 points. And while it took that much from Cunningham for the Pistons to survive, it took just as much from Paolo Banchero and 17 threes from a bad three-point shooting team just for the Magic to keep it close.
For the Magic, a similar with/without trend applies this season to point guard Jalen Suggs, though he didn't miss nearly as much time as Wagner. And Wagner's status for a potential Game 7 in Detroit would be in doubt.
In this series alone, the Magic have been 42 points better with Wagner on the floor than without him. By that measure, he's been even more valuable to Orlando than Cunningham has been to Detroit, who have been 29 points better with Cunningham on the floor than without him.
And the one-on-one matchup has tilted in the favor of Wagner, who has bothered Cunningham defensively with his length. Cunningham has shot 33 percent (6-for-18) on field goal attempts contested by Wagner this series; he's at 48 percent on all other shots.
Not to take anything away from Cunningham's virtuoso performance Wednesday night, but it came with Wagner on the bench. Other players for the Magic have guarded Cunningham, too, including Jamal Cain. But none have them have the same combination of size, strength and athleticism as the 6'10 Wagner.
"He kept getting to his spots and shots just kept falling," Isaiah Stewart said after Cunningham's historic Game 5. "He wasn’t sped up. He went at his own pace. And once he’s doing that, once he's in the zone, nobody can stop him."
Offensively, Wagner has averaged 16.8 points per game this series as Orlando's primary threat next to Paolo Banchero. He's been a particular problem for the Pistons late in games, barreling his way to the rim. Detroit's top supporting scorer this series, Tobias Harris, is questionable himself for Game 6 with an ankle injury he suffered in Game 5, but the Pistons have been able to win this season without him.
The Magic still have the upper hand, heading home with a chance to close out the series in six. But they are not the same team without Wagner. They are the 8 seed the Pistons signed up to play.
