It's going to be a good offseason to be in the market for a star shortstop, as long as you're willing to pony up a very lucrative contract.
Over on The New York Post, Jon Heyman ranked his top 30 free agents for the upcoming offseason. In it, he posted contract projections from "an outside expert," including for what's set to be a star-studded shortstop class:
- Carlos Correa: Nine Years/$275 Million
- Trea Turner: Nine Years/$275 Million
- Xander Bogaerts: Eight Years/$225 Million
- Dansby Swanson: Seven Years/$175 Million
Correa -- who recently turned 28 -- is widely expected to opt out of the final two years of a three-year/$105.3 million contract that he signed last offseason with the Minnesota Twins.
In his first season away from the Houston Astros, Correa slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs, 64 RBIs and an .834 OPS. However, Correa's defensive metrics slipped significantly year over year. He posted 20 defensive runs saved and 12 outs above average in his final season with the Astros, en route to winning the Gold Glove Award. In 2022, Correa posted three defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average.
With some injury concerns, no team was willing to commit to a decade -- give or take -- with Correa at a price he liked when he was a free agent last offseason. It's unclear if one will this time around.
Turner, meanwhile, has gone from one of baseball's best-kept secrets to one of the most universally appreciated players in the league. In his first full season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he hit .298 with 21 home runs, 100 RBIs, 27 stolen bases and a 6.3 WAR, per FanGraphs.
But while virtually every team in the league would love to sign Turner, if he's looking an eight to 10-year deal, quite a few will bow out. Turner will turn 30 next June, and already isn't a special defender (-1 defensive runs saved, zero outs above average). He has experience at second base and could shift there at some point during his deal, but it's fair to wonder how a player that's game is based so much on his tremendous athleticism will age. Turner will remain a star in the early years of his contract, but the later years count just as much.
Like Correa, Bogaerts is expected to exercise his opt-out clause this offseason, choosing free agency instead of $60 million guaranteed over the next three seasons. Also like Correa, there's a real sense Bogaerts could be playing for a new team in 2022, given that he was said to have viewed a four-year/$90 million offer from the Boston Red Sox, or something in that neighborhood, as "a slap in the face."
Still, Bogaerts is the oldest of these four shortstops, having turned 30 last month. And while Bogaerts was deservedly a Gold Glove finalist in 2022, he still has -51 defensive runs saved and -35 outs above average in his career, so teams may be skeptical of how long he can remain at shortstop for.
A four-time All-Star, Bogaerts is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, coming off of a season where he slashed .307/.377/.456. But perhaps his most appealing quality, in theory, would be that he wouldn't require as long of a commitment as Correa or Turner. If Bogaerts could be had on a six-year deal, there's real value there. But if he's going to end up with eight years, teams may be more inclined to just go all in on Correa or Turner, which will likely only take an extra season or two of commitment.
And finally, Swanson is maybe the hardest of these four to gauge, because for much of his career, he's been an above-average player. In 2022, he was a star, homering 25 times, driving in 96 runs and making his first career All-Star Game appearance. Swanson had nine defensive runs saved and 20 outs above average at shortstop this past season, earning him a Gold Glove Award.
If he's going to be that player moving forward, seven years and $175 million would be a bargain. But if Swanson reverts back to the level he played at in 2021 -- .248/.311/.449 with a 3.4 WAR, per FanGraphs -- it would be an overpay. The contract wouldn't be an albatross because Swanson has always been a nice player. But it would be very rich for just a solid player.
Set to turn 29 in February, Swanson was a World Series hero for his hometown Atlanta Braves in 2021. But if past history is any indication, he'll have to take a team-friendly contract to remain in Atlanta. That's why Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are signed to long-term deals with the Braves, and Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson are elsewhere. If you're going to work out a long-term deal with Alex Anthopoulos, it's going to be on his terms.
And so, for the second consecutive offseason, there are a slew of star shortstops set to hit the open market. But as we found out last winter, the list of teams willing to offer nearly a decade to shortstops who are at or around 30 years old is a small one.
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