The Lions bucked conventional wisdom two years ago when they drafted Jeff Okudah third overall, the first time a cornerback had been drafted that high in three decades.
Could they do the same for another defensive back this year?
Detroit is picking second overall, and Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is emerging as a top-three pick ahead of next week's combine.
No team has drafted a safety in the top two since the Browns took Eric Turner second overall in 1991. Turner had a strong nine-year career, a two-time Pro Bowler and an All-Pro. But he didn't make much of a difference for the Browns who finished above .500 just once in his five seasons in Cleveland.
Would Hamilton make an impact for the Lions?
In short, yes. Detroit allowed the third highest passer rating in the NFL last season. Of course, it also produced the third fewest sacks. And there will be at least one, possibly two elite edge rushers on the board at No. 2 in Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Best cure for a weak secondary is a strong pass rush, right?
To that end, NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah said Friday that he would take Hutchinson at No. 2 if the Michigan All-American is still on the board, as he did in his first mock draft after sending Alabama OT Evan Neal to the Jaguars.
But if Hutchinson's gone, Jeremiah said he would have "no issues whatsoever with (the Lions) taking Kyle Hamilton and saying, 'This is a plug-and-play guy who’s going to give us something we desperately need, which is somebody that can make a play.'"
Hamilton made a whole bunch of them over three seasons at Notre Dame, a do everything-safety with cornerback speed and linebacker size. He had three picks in seven games last season, before going down with a knee injury. The Lions' safety corps had two picks combined.
Jeremiah said that "in a different draft, you might say, ‘I’ll lean toward the edge rusher, positional value,’ all that stuff. But I think Kyle Hamilton stacks up really well with everybody in this draft."
Hamilton's potential value to the Lions depends a lot on Tracy Walker. If they re-sign their starting free safety and leading tackler last season, they could form a dynamic duo in the defensive backfield. But if they draft Hamilton after letting Walker go, they're merely plugging a hole of their own making -- and how'd that work when the former regime drafted Okudah to replace Darius Slay?
Either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux would immediately make the Lions better. Their need at defensive end is already severe. Their need is only that severe at safety if Walker's out of the picture, and swapping Walker for Hamilton doesn't necessarily make the Lions better. Not to any substantial degree. You have to get better with the second overall pick.
The highest-drafted safety in the last five years is Jamal Adams, 6th overall by the Jets in 2017. Adams was an immediate star, exactly what you're looking for inside the top 10. But the Jets' defense didn't get any better until Adams' third season, by which point he wanted out. Now he's a star for the Seahawks.
Only two safeties in the last 30 years have been drafted in the top five: Eric Berry, fifth overall by the Chiefs in 2010, and Sean Taylor, fifth overall by the Redskins in 2004. Berry, a three-time All-Pro and a member of the NFL's All-2010's team, made a lasting impact in Kansas City. Taylor's impact is still reverberating in the bones of ball-carriers everywhere.
It's not so much 'buyer beware' when drafting a safety high in the draft. It's something closer to 'buyer be certain.' Washington went back to the well in 2007 and drafted a Pro Bowl safety and longtime starter in LaRon Landry sixth overall. The four highest-drafted safeties this century -- Adams, Berry, Landry and Taylor -- all lived up to their potential. We can safely assume Hamilton will, too.
So it's not a question of whether Hamilton is worth the second overall pick. It's whether he's worth it to the Lions. If they believe he will improve their team to a greater degree than Hutchinson or Thibodeaux, they should take him -- convention be damned. But with so many holes in that defense, they better be sure of it.