The only thing standing between Michigan and its third straight Big Ten title is the nation's worst offense -- and one of its best defenses. Iowa football at its finest.
"They win," Jim Harbaugh said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket, and you can't take that from the Hawkeyes, who are 10-2, No. 16 in the country and haven't had a losing season in their last decade under Kirk Ferentz, the longest-tenured head coach in college football.
"They win, and they’ve done it with great defense," Harbaugh said. "And they play our kind of football on offense, they play real football. Physical, tough, always locked-in to the special teams. We know how they play, disciplined, and we know they’ll be locked, cocked and ready to rock Saturday night."
Iowa ranks seventh in the country in total defense and fourth in scoring defense (12.2 points per game). Of course, Michigan ranks fourth in total defense and first in scoring defense (10.6), so Iowa's usual edge is negated. Still, the Hawkeyes defense is stout, a top-10 unit against both the run and the pass. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy said this week that Ferentz "does a great job making sure they’re well-coached and in the right spots at all times."
"That’s something about the Iowa defense that makes them so good all the time, they’re disciplined," he said. "Their techniques and their coverages, everything about it, they don’t do a lot but they do it really, really well. And obviously they have some athletes back there that can make splays and get to the ball and disrupt the ball in the air.
"The biggest thing, though, is just their discipline with their rules and just not getting out of what they do and allowing busted coverages or rushing lanes to open up for me to scramble. They’re just very fundamentally sound."
The offense, of course, is a different story. The Hawkeyes might try to play like Michigan and control the game by pounding the rock, but they don't do a great impression. They are dead last, out of 133 FBS schools, in total offense and 120th in scoring offense (18.0 points per game). Michigan is 55th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense (37.6).
Ferentz told reporters this week that it "would actually be kind of funny" if the Hawkeyes win, because it would "screw things up" in the College Football Playoff. Michigan, unbeaten and ranked No. 2, would surely be eliminated with a loss. It just doesn't feel possible, with the Wolverines listed as 23-point favorites. They were 11-point favorites when they played Iowa for the Big Ten title in 2021 and won 42-3.
The Hawkeyes' only path to success requires slowing down Michigan's run game, which could sputter after the loss of the team's best offensive lineman Zak Zinter, grabbing a couple takeaways and hitting a few big plays -- likely trick plays -- on offense. They'll have to drag Michigan into the mud and make it ugly. Of course, Michigan is just as happy to play that way.
"It just comes down to our offensive line," said McCarthy. "With Zak going out, it’ll be great to see them mesh really well this week and be on the same page with everything in the running game, passing game. It’s going to be a great challenge for them to be on the same page every single snap."
McCarthy, whose mobility has been limited the past two games due to a lower-leg injury he suffered against Penn State, said the injury is "almost perfectly healed," adding, "It was a rough couple of weeks, but the athletic training staff did a tremendous job every single day, so it’s doing good."
If Saturday's game unfolds as expected, McCarthy should be resting on the sidelines by the fourth quarter.
"We walk by our sign every day that says, ‘Those who stay will be champions,’ and here’s our chance to win a third straight Big Ten championship," Harbaugh said. "We’re going to plan, prepare, practice and go out and execute, and we’ll have to play really good to win."