We might not see Kerby Joseph play for Lions again

There's an increasing possibility that Kerby Joseph has played his last snap of football for the Lions.

What would Dan Campbell tell fans who fear that to be true?

"Well, I wish I could make you feel good. I can’t make you feel good," Dan Campbell said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "It’s going to come as it comes, and he’s not ready. We’re trying to get him there as fast as we can and we’re trying to be as smart about it as we can, and if he’s ready, when he’s ready, of course we want to play him and get him on the field."

Joseph hasn't played for the Lions since re-injuring his knee last October in a loss to the Chiefs. He suffered his first knee injury in training camp last season, then another in September against the Browns. It is a chronic, degenerative issue, presumably related to a loss of cartilage, that can't be fixed by surgery.

When Joseph tried to return late last season, he lasted one practice before the knee flared up again. He has been resting and rehabbing for almost a full year, with no clear return date in sight. Complicating matters is that he's in the first season of a four-year, $86 million extension.

Campbell, at this point, is growing tired of the questions, but people -- fans -- want answers. Surely so does he. When he was asked Tuesday what needs to change for Joseph to get back on the field, Campbell replied in annoyance, "I guess nothing."

It shouldn't be taken literally. What needs to change is exactly what Campbell and the Lions have said all along: Joseph needs to restrengthen the muscles around his knee to the point that he can trust it and play at top gear. Pain will likely always come with it; it's a matter of how much he can tolerate, and how much burst he's already lost.

Joseph said he woke up one morning last season and "my knee was just swollen. I didn’t think nothing much, I could still run, do all this, (went) out there and practiced, we had a scrimmage, but I’m running, like, 'Man, I ain’t that fast today.'"

The Lions believed Joseph was making progress this summer. The rehab appeared to be working. He was running hard on the sidelines during training camp practices, clearly pushing his knee. But Joseph left the team in the middle of camp for personal reasons -- around the same time that he went dark on social media after a period of rampant, mysterious messaging on X -- and the Lions had to stall his rehab while he was away.

He returned to the team around the start of the regular season, but Joseph's absence was another hurdle in his recovery.

"I just know we were strengthening the knee, and it wasn't a setback, but there was a little time there where we weren't able to do everything we needed to do," Campbell said Monday. "So now we're back at it. And until we can get the knee to a certain point to where it feels strong -- as strong as we can possibly get it -- and he feels comfortable, we're not going to put him out there."

At some point the Lions need to push Joseph in practice to see how the knee responds. It's the only way they'll gain clarity on his status, one way or the other. The worst-case scenario is that they discover, beyond doubt, that he's done for the season (and very likely done for good). As much as that would sting, it would be more instructive for their short- and long-term planning purposes than being stuck in limbo.

By waiting -- and waiting and waiting -- to find out, the Lions are essentially falling into the very trap Campbell said they would avoid this season: "We're not going to let anybody hold us hostage." Campbell was referring to the development of young players when he shared that sentiment back in the spring, but his larger point holds as it relates to Joseph: "At some point, you can't wait anymore."

"It's not fair to everybody else on this roster, or the coaches, or us, or anybody," he said.

Joseph, obviously, has earned a longer grace period than an unproven player. It wasn't long ago that he was the best hall-hawk in the game. It wasn't outlandish, at the time, to suggest that he was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His 17 interceptions through his first three seasons were the most by any NFL safety since Hall of Famer Ed Reed. He was worth every penny the Lions paid him after the 2024 season, before there was a single concern about his knee.

That's one of the reasons they continue to wait. They know exactly how he can tilt the field in their favor. The Lions originally hoped to get Joseph back at practice either late in camp or early in September. Ditto Branch, who's closer to a return than Joseph as he rehabs a torn Achilles, but still a ways out from games.

Now that Joseph's timeline has been thrown back in the blender, the Lions might simply be saving him for when they need him most, fearing -- or knowing -- that his knee will only hold up for a few games, at best. Trouble is, that time might be right now. The Lions are so thin at safety after losing Branch's replacement Avonte Maddox to season-ending foot surgery that they're working out veterans off the street and talking about poaching young players from practice squads around the league.

They signed Jalen Mills to their own practice squad Monday, the 32-year-old safety who joined the Lions down the stretch last season after they lost Branch. Their defense has surrendered the second most points and second most passing yards in the NFL through two games. Their secondary, despite being long on experience, has looked entirely out of sorts.

The Lions can't rush Joseph back into action. That's one way to ensure he won't play again this year. And there are contractual factors at play for both sides, which is another reason for the waiting game. Joseph's knee is clearly beyond the point of complete repair. If both sides are coming to the conclusion that it's doomed, they might have clashing motivations.

Joseph would likely rather be cut and collect what's left of the guaranteed money on his deal than retire of his own accord and potentially leave said money behind. The Lions would likely rather see Joseph retire early in hopes of recouping some of his bonus money, as they did with Frank Ragnow (and Calvin Johnson before that).

Neither side can voice this dilemma publicly, hence Joseph's claims of optimism about his health when he last spoke with the media in July and the Lions' stance that they're doing everything they can to get him back on the field. Neither party is necessarily lying, nor is it in a spot to tell the full truth.

The most likely outcome here, barring a medical miracle, is that the Lions cut ties with Joseph after this season. The way his contract is structured with increasingly expensive option bonuses, releasing him becomes more costly to the cap with each passing year. Cutting Joseph in 2027 would come with a $13.7 million dead cap hit, per Pride of Detroit (which has a thorough breakdown of all the financial ramifications), and that would be that.

The longer the Lions wait, the more prohibitive the dead cap hits would become.

It's an unfortunate situation that's turned into a saga, mostly out of everyone's control. The Lions could have removed some of the mystery at the outset by being more realistic about Joseph's chances of making a full recovery, but even then, what did they know? The only timeline they've ever had amounted to, the knee will be ready when it's ready.

If it ever is ready this season, Joseph and the Lions will push it. And that might push both sides toward what feels like the inevitable split. The fact that it's not ready yet probably says all you need to know.