The Red Wings snapped a two-game skid Tuesday while a core piece of their future, or so we're told, watched from the weight room. That's because Filip Zadina had been scratched. He had been scratched because he had been struggling, which too often gets conflated with "struggling to score." Zadina simply hadn't played well in the first two games out of the Wings' COVID-19 induced layoff, so Jeff Blashill sat him for Givani Smith -- and imagine reading those words four years ago when Detroit drafted Zadina sixth overall.
"I don’t think he played as good the last two games as he did prior to the break, and he just has to get his game back going," Blashill said Thursday.
Of course, Zadina had been struggling to score for a while. He had one goal in his last 14 games before being scratched, and one goal in his last nine games before that. He has four goals in 32 games this season, but you know this. A goalscorer by trade, Zadina has been struggling to score goals since he entered the NHL. Turns out, scoring goals in the NHL is hard.
Zadina was supposed to make it look easy. If he lacked the speed and size, he was supposed to have the shot to torment opposing goalies, to "fill their nets with pucks." He flashed in 2019-20, scoring eight goals in 28 games, a 23-goal pace over a full season. He's one game shy of a full season since, with 10 goals to his name. Is this Filip Zadina as we'll know him?
"I think Filip’s going to become a good NHL player, for sure," Blashill said Wednesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "And he’s continuing to work extremely hard. I think it’s just learning how to be effective at this level, learning what you can do better than other people. Now, how good a scorer? I don’t know. That’s something that you just never know until they actually do it.
"Unfortunately for Filip, he came in with lots of hype as a goalscorer and I think people wanted him to walk in and score 30 right away. It took us a long time before we had somebody that scored 30. I think it was multiple years from the time that a guy scored 30 until Larkin and Double-A did it a couple years ago. That’s not easy to do."
Blashill is right. Before Larkin and Andreas Athanasiou broke the 30-goal barrier in the 2018-19 season, the Wings hadn't had a 30-goal scorer since the last time they played for the Cup. (Hossa, Franzen, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, 2008-09.) In the interim, four 100-point teams in Detroit went without a 30-goal scorer. Those were slightly different times and much different teams. It's awfully hard to win these days without an elite goal scorer or two, and harder to score goals than ever. That's why Zadina felt like such a boon to Detroit's rebuild.
Now it's starting to gain ground without him.
"Filip Zadina is going to score goals," Blashill said. "He’s going to be a good offensive player. He’s working hard to make his game real well-rounded and he’ll continue to improve. He’s a competitive person. Everybody’s timeline is a little bit different. I think if Filip can continue to work and grind away, he’s going to become a real good NHL player."
Again, Blashill is right. Even high draft picks develop on different timelines. But by now, most high draft picks who become "real good NHL players" are already great. Some are elite. Especially in the case of wingers. 118 games into his career, Zadina has 19 goals and 47 points (but you know this). At the same point in their careers, the 15 other wingers drafted in the top 10 from 2013-18 who have played at least 118 games had, on average, 27 goals and 64 points. And now they were turning up the dial.
In terms of production, the closest comparison to Zadina among this group is Valeri Nichushkin, drafted 10th overall in 2013. He had 18 goals and 48 points through 118 games. That's about even with what he's done since, though he's off to a great start this season. The next closest is Nick Ritchie, drafted 10th overall in 2014. He had 17 goals and 35 points; he's been a slightly higher point producer since. Jonathan Drouin, drafted third overall in 2013, had the same number of goals as Zadina through 118 games, but 62 points. Timo Meier, drafted ninth overall in 2015, had fewer points than Zadina, but 25 goals. Meier has become a good player. Drouin has not.
Of the aforementioned 15 players, Zadina has more goals through 118 games than Nichushkin, Ritchie, Jesse Puljujarvi and Jake Virtanen. By now, the rest were miles ahead. The names, working backward from 2018: Brady Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, Clayton Keller, Matthew Tkachuk, Patrik Laine, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner, Nikolah Ehlers and William Nylander (8th). Those are the top-10 wingers who have made it. Zadina has a long way to go to catch them.
"Listen, Z cares a lot," Blashill said. "He tries really hard, competes hard. I don’t think he’s been rewarded on the number of chances he’s had. I think that’ll come."
That's the other piece to this dilemma. Zadina is due some positive regression. He is, right? His career shooting percentage of 7.7 percent is well below the league average. 2018-19 is the one season he finished above it. He was at 18.8 percent when he scored 44 goals in juniors the year he was drafted. Thing is, 118 games is a decent batch of evidence. If 7.7 percent is an
aberration from the norm, it might also be the norm for Zadina.
"How can he score more goals off his shot? No. 1, he’s gotta keep working on getting it off a little bit quicker and then keep working on the accuracy of it," Blashill said. "In junior hockey you can score goals in different parts of the net that you’re not scoring in the NHL. So that accuracy is critical and getting it off quicker is critical. Those two things, sometimes it takes guys a little while to adapt to the NHL, the longer sticks, the better defensemen, the less space, the better goalies."
Wouldn't you know it, Blashill is right. Even Zadina, who admitted he was "disappointed and pissed" about being scratched, agrees. He's talked a lot the past couple years about the need for a quicker release. Goals in the NHL happen in a series of nanoseconds; each one is vital. And while he's shown a sniper's aim in the past, Zadina too often misses his target from close range. He's had enough opportunities this season to have 10-plus goals, which itself is a positive sign. He just hasn't converted them.
"Just keep shooting and hit the spots where the goalie isn’t, I guess," Zadina said Thursday. "Just keep believing and hope that it goes in at some point."
Ever since Zadina debuted for Detroit, Blashill has coached him to be a more well-rounded player. He and Steve Yzerman aren't interested in anything else. For Zadina, that can be a challenge to accept. He's been a goal scorer his whole life. Goal scorers score goals. The last time he was scratched he was a minor playing in a men's league in the Czech Republic. Now he's 22 in the NHL and trying to become a better player, without the confidence that comes with putting the puck in the net.
Zadina's frustration is evident when he jams the shaft of his stick into his knees or chastises himself after missing a scoring chance. In these moments, the 22-year-old looks weary. And perhaps he's wary of what comes next, a few months ahead of restricted free agency. Zadina is not Yzerman's draft pick, and Yzerman's first-round picks are flourishing. It all has to be weighing on Zadina's shoulders, his lack of production, his uncertain future, his slow fall from grace. Blashill said he's had lots of conversations with Zadina that "you can't just value yourself on whether or not the puck goes in."
"I think Fil is more than just a shooter," said Blashill. "I think he’s valued himself that way and certainly the hype was around his shooting, but I think he’s more than just a shooter. The one thing we’ve talked to him about is becoming more of that give-and-go player. When I watched him play juniors, I saw a guy who could also make plays. That’s what I liked about him. He wasn’t a one-trick pony who could only shoot pucks. When you draft wingers high, I’d like them to be able to do more than just shoot the puck in the net."
That's the challenge for Zadina the rest of this season, and maybe the rest of his career. No one's giving up on Zadina the Goal Scorer, not this soon, but the Wings might be finding the goal scorers they need. Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi are both on a 40-goal pace this season. Rookie Lucas Raymond is pushing 25. And Jakub Vrana, who sure looked like a 30-goal scorer last season, is still waiting in the wings. Zadina has to prove he can impact the game without scoring goals, "whether it’s being great defensively, being hard on the forecheck, getting to rebounds in the dirty areas or being a give-and-go player," said Blashill.
"Certainly we all want all our guys to score a ton," he said, "but there’s more to it."
If there's not more to Zadina, this might be simply what he is. The Red Wings will try to make it two in a row Saturday in LA, ideally with some help from a core piece of their future.