In theory, the Lions could have left the first round of the draft with a pair of premium defensive linemen: the Eagles took Georgia stars Jalen Carter No. 10 and Nolan Smith No. 30. Instead, the Lions took running back Jahmyr Gibbs No. 12 and linebacker Jack Campbell No. 18, picks widely panned as reaches.
Which raises an interesting question, says Audacy Sports' NFL insider and former NFL offensive lineman Ross Tucker:
"Did Brad Holmes take Gibbs and Campbell higher than people thought they would go, and at non-premium positions, because they were safe picks? Or because he doesn’t give a you-know-what about what everybody else thinks? He just wants to get the players that he wants and the players that he thinks are good."
The answer, courtesy of Holmes himself, after the second day of the draft: "Once again, we’re just always going to take the best football players. Who is the best guy for us, the highest-rated guy? That’s what we’re doing and it’s been working so far."
You think? In the span of two years, Holmes has transformed the Lions from a division doormat into a legitimate conference contender. Not by following mock drafts, but by following his own board and his own gut. When Holmes says the Lions want "the best players for us," he means players who match "what we’re about from a culture-standpoint, from a character-standpoint, from an intangible standpoint, from an intelligence standpoint. The talent is one thing, but these players fit us. That’s why we’re thrilled about them.”
Related
At No. 12, Holmes said Gibbs was the highest-ranked player on the Lions' board. Ditto Campbell at No. 18, and "by a good margin." For all the talk about positional value, which is warranted, Holmes would rather chase talent: "If you try to get cute and say, ‘Oh, let me get whatever you would tab as a premium position, you better get a pass rusher, you better get a tackle,'" that's exactly how you can take a draft, and ultimately a team.
Furthermore, Gibbs and Campbell were likely coming off the board in the first round whether or not the Lions took them. Holmes intimated as much in the case of Gibbs -- "A lot of people saying they wanted to trade up and get him," -- and Tucker confirmed as much from his conversations with teams around the NFL.
"Listen, I talked to several teams that loved Jahmyr Gibbs. People thought the Jets might have taken him at No. 15. And I know there were teams that loved Jack Campbell and were going to take him in the 20’s," Tucker said. "So if the Lions felt that way about those guys, how do we know that other teams didn’t and that they weren’t going take them? Just because of the mock drafts? Well guess what? The mock drafts had Nolan Smith going No. 8 to Atlanta or No. 10 to Philadelphia and he went 30th. So it works both ways where those mock drafts aren’t right.
"If you’re the Lions and you love these guys, you can’t assume they’re going to be there later. Because if that’s who you love, I think you really look stupid if you’re like, ‘Oh, OK, we’ll just get ‘em later,' and then they’re not there."
Related
In Gibbs and Campbell, the Lions got two players who will make an immediate impact on a team eyeing its first division title in 30 years. And they likely got two more in tight end Sam LaPorta (No. 34 overall) and defensive back Brian Branch (No. 45). Holmes and the Lions have a great chance of emerging from this draft with four plug-and-play contributors as their window opens in the NFC.
"I talked to scouts and people love Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell. Like, love those guys," said Tucker. "They are awesome football players who I think will both start for the Lions. And if they’re starting and making plays, is it really that bad of a pick? It’s almost like we forget that half the first-round picks never become solid starters. It’s like we think all these guys are going to be starters. (People say), ‘They should have taken a corner, they should have taken an edge rusher.’ If you take guys that are good starters and good players, that is a good outcome compared to taking a guy at a better position or a more important position, whatever that means, and he ends up being a bust."
"If the Lions come out of this draft with four starters, go and look at it: How many teams ever have drafts, ever, where four guys actually become long-term starters?"
Related
We'll look at it this way. Of the top 64 picks in last year's draft, a little more than half (35) were primary starters last season (per Pro-Football-Reference). Of the top 64 picks in the '21 draft, a little more than a third (23) were primary starters each of their first two seasons. Less than 30 percent of the top-64 picks from the last five drafts have been five-year primary starters. In other words, top-64 picks are hardly a guarantee. The Lions may have just landed four who will be primary starters for the next several years. Even three out of four would be a darn good haul.
Especially for a team that's ready to make noise.
"Not only to me are they a playoff team – I mean, they should have been a playoff team last year and they were clearly one of the seven best teams in the NFC at the end of the year -- I'm going to go a step further: I think the Lions have an excellent opportunity to go on a playoff run," said Tucker. "I don’t know if I’m going to go out and say they are Super Bowl contenders yet, but what I would say right now is, the five best teams in the NFC are, in some order, the Eagles, the 49ers, the Cowboys, the Seahawks and the Detroit Lions.
"I think they absolutely have a chance, I’d be disappointed if they didn’t make the playoffs. And then once they get there, I think they are good enough that they could do some damage."
Listen live to 97.1 The Ticket via:
Audacy App | Online Stream | Smart Speaker