'Opportunity lost:' Tigers make wrong statement to front office ahead of trade deadline

One from Jacob Waguespeck. Another from Drew Sommers. Two fatal pitches, and perhaps the killshot to Detroit's deadline dreams.

The Tigers have spent the last two months trying to make a statement to the front office. Splitting four games with the last-place Royals minus their two best players, after taking the first two and leading late in each of the last two, speaks pretty clearly to who the Tigers are.

And what they are not. They are not stout enough in the bullpen. They are not strong enough at the plate. They are not sturdy enough to string together multiple wins in a row, even as they’ve played winning baseball since the start of June. They are not worthy, at this rate, of keeping Tarik Skubal and buying.

It’s a shame. The Tigers have the third best rotation in the majors and the best in the AL, with a 3.48 ERA. Even with a clunky outing Sunday by Framber Valdez, their starters allowed six earned runs in four games against KC, albeit without Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia in the Royals’ lineup. Their bullpen allowed five, in about half as many innings. It blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th on Thursday before the Tigers rallied to win, a 2-1 lead in the 7th on Saturday and a 4-3 lead in the 8th on Sunday.

Detroit has more blown saves this season — 24, most in the American League — than saves.

The offense is complicit here, too, as it has been for most of the season. The Tigers looked tame all weekend against a lame pitching staff. They put the first two runners on in the 9th on Sunday, then watched their 2, 3, 4 hitters go down in order, Gleyber Torres and Riley Greene striking out to end it. Zach McKinstry ran into a costly out on the bases in the 8th.

Still, the game was in the Tigers’ hands when they gave the ball to Sommers, as it was on Saturday when they gave it to Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan, who has dodged trouble from most of the year, served up a game-tying bomb to Salvy Perez, before Waguespeck surrendered the go-ahead dinger in the ninth to Nick Loftin.

Sommers was a strike away from doing his job on Sunday when Michael Massey sent a slider deep into the seats in right, a two-run bomb that flipped the game on its head. That Waguespeck and Sommers, two entirely unproven arms, are entrusted with such important outs in such crucial games is a problem partly of Scott Harris’ creation.

Had the Tigers taken care of business against a reeling Royals team, they would be 1.5 games back in the wild card race with two teams to jump, two games under .500 and mounting a real push. Instead, they are 3.5 games back with five teams to jump, six games under .500 and reeling now themselves.

“We didn’t capitalize on having some traffic in the latter innings, and we got beat by a two-strike soft-contact (single) and a two-strike homer (in the 8th). That’s what it feels like,” said A.J. Hinch. “There are many things in this game that could have swung it either way, but opportunity lost to win a series.”

Hinch said he “felt great” bringing Sommers back out for the 8th after the lefty got the final out of the 7th. Then Sommers got beat by a lefty with his second-best pitch.

“I know the way it ended feels hollow, but that’s exactly the guy we want in there against those guys in that situation, with the explosive fastball that he has,” said Hinch. “He spun a breaking ball middle down and Massey didn’t miss it, but if that ball pops up to right field we’re loving that outing that would have been four outs.”

It’s been a what-if sort of season for the Tigers, a would’ve-should’ve team with an expected record of 56-50 based on their positive run differential and an actual record of 50-56. They are 12-19 in one-run games and a staggering 15-35 in games decided by two runs or fewer. The latter mark is the worst in the majors and owes largely to all those blown saves.

They could try to fix their flaws at the deadline while also trading Skubal, but their best strength — their only strength — would be severely diminished. They could keep Skubal and go all-in, but are they really robbing their farm system to do that?

They are careening toward what feels like their final destination. As much as Skubal wants to stay a few more months and see the Tigers add, it feels like he has come to the end of his line in Detroit. The Tigers have a future to consider here that Skubal doesn’t, and things aren’t promising enough in the present to take precedence.

The Tigers do have some reinforcements coming in the form of Jackson Jobe and, eventually, Will Vest. Spark-plug Javy Baez will likely be back in the next few days. Harris will almost certainly herald Jobe’s return as a type of addition at the deadline. But those aren’t real solutions to the Tigers’ problems on the mound and at the plate. Trading Skubal, painful as it would be, could help them critically address the latter, for years to come.

It’s never a sure thing. But if a contender that’s rich with enticing young bats makes the right offer, like the Brewers, Dodgers or even the Cubs, Harris would be hard-pressed to say no. Casey Mize and Gleyber Torres should be on the table as well.

It’s not the last two games in isolation that should compel the Tigers to sell. It’s what those games represent, a club that can’t be trusted. The Tigers are fifth in the majors in ERA. Every other team in the top six — the Yankees, Brewers, Red Sox, Dodgers and Braves — is in a playoff spot. The only way the Tigers can justify keeping Skubal is by adding high-octane, swing and miss arms (plural) to their bullpen, which never come cheap.

Again: unlikely.

Kevin McGonigle was annoyed with himself after Sunday’s loss. The star rookie reached base safely three times, but was the first of those three empty at-bats in the ninth with the game on the line. He was lamenting his soft fly-out to left and the close losses of the last two days when he happened to summarize the Tigers’ season.

“Tight scores, it could be one swing that wins it, it could be one great play that wins it," he said. "It’s frustrating the last two games, we fell short twice. But like I said, I don’t think the momentum will stop going into the next series against Baltimore.”

Sometimes, it's one bad pitch that loses it. Six games remain for the Tigers to get back on the horse before the Aug. 3 deadline, against the O’s and A’s. But this was a stumble from which they might not recover. If so, it was a fitting fall for a team that’s spent most of the year blowing leads and, by all appearances, its final season with the best pitcher in baseball.