Better than anyone at Michigan, better than anyone in Michigan, better than basically anyone other than Jay Wright himself, Phil Martelli knows what Michigan is up against Thursday night. The former St. Joseph's head coach battled Wright and his Villanova teams for 18 years straight in college basketball's 'Holy War.'
Martelli, now an assistant coach at Michigan, emerged with a few wins and a bunch of lessons, lessons he's imparting on the Wolverines as they prepare to face the 2-seed Wildcats in the Sweet 16.
"To be honest with you, it’s nothing about style of play," Martelli said Thursday on 97.1 The Ticket. "What I can relay and have relayed is this: ‘Nova will not beat themselves. They will not lose tonight’s game. That puts the burden or the responsibility on us to win the game. They’re going to play 40 minutes, they’re going to compete for 40 minutes, they believe that every loose ball is theirs. They are historically now the greatest foul shooting team in college basketball. There’s not going to be any cracks."
Indeed, Villanova is on the precipice of history entering Thursday night, even as it aims to make more. The Wildcats, aiming for their third national title in the last six Tournaments, don't just lead the country with a free-throw percentage of 82.6 percent; they've overtaken the 1983-84 Harvard team that holds the all-time record at 82.2 percent. (They outpaced even themselves in the first two games of the tournament, going 28-32 from the line.) And if you're looking for turnovers, look somewhere else: Villanova commits the 13th fewest in the nation.
They will not lose tonight's game.
"We are going to have to take this, and that’s what I’ve been able to relay, along with what everybody sees: they run an isolation-based offense, they switch on defense, there’s going to be some three-quarter court pressure," Martelli said. "But eventually, you have to take their heart, is what we’re going to have to do. That’s by being sharper in every special situation and a big deal – and it sounds simple – you have to make shots to keep the game pressure on them."
Villanova makes plenty of shots itself, especially from deep. No one makes more than two-time Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie. The fifth-year point guard, who backed up Jalen Brunson as a freshman on the Villanova team that beat Michigan in the 2018 National Championship, is good for at least a couple back-breaking shots every game. It will be up to Michigan -- and fifth-year point guard Eli Brooks -- to make a few of their own.
But in Martelli's eyes, "the X-factor is (Caleb) Daniels," the senior guard "who comes off the bench."
"They only plays six guys, but they’re six starters and they’re six very, very efficient players. As I look at it over and over again, my feeling is that he can be an X-factor for them. ... If I had to put an eye on one guy, it’s going to be Daniels," said Martelli.
While they won't lose on their own, the Wildcats are beatable. They were nearly toppled in the second round by Ohio State, even while leading from wire to wire. Their slow pace of play tends to keep games close. And they lack size inside, where Michigan's Hunter Dickinson will have a significant advantage over anyone guarding him, a job that will likely fall to 6'8 forward Eric Dixon.
The 7'1 Dickinson has 48 points through the first two games of the Tournament, most by a Michigan player since Juwan Howard in 1994. His dominance is the biggest reason the 11-seed Wolverines are still dancing, while most of the Big Ten, in Dickinson words, is "watching us back in their cribs."
"I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a little personality in the game," Martelli said when asked about Dickinson's 'villain' role. "I do and have said to him, ‘Man, you’re going to make it hard to go on the road,’ but that’s really why he came back to college basketball. He came back to college basketball for these moments and for that press conference and for all the excitement with which he plays. Just Hunter being Hunter."