A quiet offseason is turning noisy for the Tigers. They left the Winter Meetings having signed one unspectacular player in Alex Cobb, a continuation of their conservative approach under Scott Harris. They did not look or sound all that motivated to enhance their roster after their first trip to the playoffs in 10 years. Their payroll projected to remain among the lowest in the majors.
Not anymore. First, a $15 million upgrade at second base in Gleyber Torres, who brings a needed right-handed bat to the middle of the lineup. Then, a $7.75 million addition to the bullpen in Tommy Kahnle, who makes an already sturdy unit stronger. And now, a $35 million investment in Jack Flaherty, who reunites with Tarik Skubal at the top of what looks like a stout rotation.
And next? Well, Alex Bregman remains unsigned, and the Tigers remain very much interested.
Bregman would be the booming finale of a fantastic offseason for the Tigers. He boasts every asset they're looking for, a mature right-handed hitter, a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman, a clubhouse leader and a proven October winner under A.J Hinch. As Hinch told the Tigers after they were eliminated last year in Cleveland, "Once you play in one October, you never want to miss one the rest of your career." Bregman has played in every October since becoming a regular for the Astros in 2017, and ranks sixth all time with 19 postseason homers.
To those who say he declined last year, he really just started slowly -- as he tends to do. From the start of May, Bregman was a top-20 position player and a top-three third baseman in the majors with 4.0 fWAR; Riley Greene led the Tigers over this stretch at 2.8. And Bregman was a top-30 hitter with a 129 wRC+; Greene led the Tigers over this stretch at 128. Bregman's OPS from the start of June (.837) basically mirrors that of his career.
Bregman turns 31 next season and is seeking a long-term deal that the Tigers are apparently unwilling to give him; he's already turned down a six-year, $156 million offer to stay with the Astros. Might Harris and Hinch meet him in the middle on a three- or four-year pact worth significantly more than Houston's offer annually?
As it is, the Tigers have shown they're inclined to spend again. No, not in the swashbuckling manner that marked -- and ultimately marred -- the end of the late Mike Ilitch's tenure as owner, but perhaps with more purpose and focus. Those sounded like strengths of Harris when he arrived, and are starting to look like them now.
With their $25 million outlay on Flaherty this year, the Tigers' projected payroll of about $128 million has jumped from 26th in the majors last year to 17th, per Spotrac -- and from last in the AL Central to first. They're still well below the MLB average of $152 million, which leaves them, say, $30 million to commit to Bregman while remaining comfortably in the middle of big-league spenders.
The last time the Tigers had the highest payroll in the AL Central was 2017, when they ranked fifth overall thanks to bloated deals for Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann. Those contracts became handcuffs, Cabrera's in particular. There's no sound reason to spend like that again. It was short-sighted more than shrewd.
But the Tigers are in a spot to spend both willingly and wisely, even while allowing for a huge extension for Tarik Skubal at some point in the next two years. To wit, $31 million annually over eight years for Cabrera, starting at age 33, is quite different than the same amount over four years for Bregman starting at age 31.
Detroit is on the precipice of contention in the American League, and firmly in the fray in the Central. In fact, the Tigers are tied with the Twins for the best World Series odds in the division. They have a wealth of cost-controlled homegrown players, with more on the way. After reaching the playoffs, it's natural to reach higher; the Tigers were a Skubal pitch away last year from being one of two teams standing in the AL.
They might be a third baseman away from breaking through this year. And they might just go get him.