The Red Wings are coming, with Alex DeBrincat coming home.
After years of losing and months of speculation, Steve Yzerman made the move everyone was waiting for. He called the Senators, and called and called until he'd acquired a proven NHL goal scorer who's just 25 years old and a native of Farmington Hills in exchange for a 2024 first-round pick, a 2024 fourth-rounder, forward Dominik Kubalik and defensive prospect Donovan Sebrango. And when Yzerman immediately signed DeBrincat to a four-year deal worth $7.875 million annually, he dramatically altered the look of today and tomorrow for the Red Wings.
Suddenly, this is a team that can, and arguably should, expect to make the playoffs next season for the first time in eight years. DeBrincat is that good, and that suitable to the Red Wings' biggest need, a two-time 40-goal scorer who looks like a natural fit next to Dylan Larkin, a burgeoning playmaker in his own right. Yzerman had added depth and toughness to Detroit's roster this offseason, especially to the middle two forward lines. DeBrincat adds top-line talent.
"Good teams have depth. I think we have some depth," Yzerman said last week after a series of free agency signings. "We would all love a couple of big-time scorers. We’ll continue to work at that, and how we go about it is a bit of a challenge."
Don't be fooled by DeBrincat's size. The 5'8 sniper is about as big-time as they come. His 187 goals are 14th most in the NHL over his six-year career. He's one of only four wingers with multiple seasons of more than 40 goals in the last five years, a list otherwise comprised of Ovechkin, Pastrnak and Robertson. DeBrincat also scored at a 50-goal pace in the COVID-shortened season of 2020-21, when his 32 goals trailed only McDavid and Matthews. These are names you know. And when it comes to putting the puck in the net, this is the company DeBrincat keeps.
Critics will understandably point out that DeBrincat is coming off a down season in which he scored just 27 goals and finished minus-31. We'd only counter that 27 goals still would have ranked second on his new team and that his shooting percentage is likely to rebound to his career norm after a rather precipitous drop last season. And that even if it doesn't, DeBrincat's plus-minus should benefit from the Red Wings' improved defensive structure under Derek Lalonde.
And that, ultimately, Yzerman had to take a chance on a game-breaking talent. The Red Wings scored one goal or fewer in 20 games last season, and lost all of them. They scored two goals or fewer in 35 games, and lost 33 of them. Lots of those losses were by a single goal. Even coupled with internal growth, Yzerman knew the additions he made in free agency weren't enough to solve Detroit's deficiency in the finishing department: "Collectively, I expect us to improve a little bit. It's probably still not where we’d all like it to be."
DeBrincat will improve it individually. In a league where so many games hinge on a few decisive moments -- a crossbar at one end, a converted chance at the other -- DeBrincat is the kind of scorer who can turn a handful of close losses into wins over the course of a season. (We'd also point out that he's missed just four games in his six NHL seasons.) And a handful of more wins next season would push the Wings toward 90 points and into a legitimate playoff race.
Yzerman said Monday that he views DeBrincat as "more than a goal scorer," a "really smart hockey player" who's "not just a shooter." He also spelled out the essence of DeBrincat's value to the Red Wings: "There just aren’t a lot of guys around the league who can get it on their stick and any time they shoot it, it has a chance of going in. We categorize Alex in that mold: a sniper. One shot can change a game."
"They were looking for a goal scorer and I think I can really help them fill that void and hopefully be the solution to getting into the playoffs and being a contender again," DeBrincat said on NHL Network Radio. "I grew up watching the Red Wings and following their success, and I'm excited to be here and hopefully have that same success that they had."
This is as much to do with tomorrow as today. Adding a player of DeBrincat's caliber for the next four seasons, at a very reasonable cap hit, brightens the future for Detroit in a big way. It helps the club make the most of Larkin's prime, without hitching it to so many unproven prospects. A lot of pieces still have to fall into place for the Red Wings to emerge as legitimate contenders in the East, but they weren't threatening anyone without this one. The fact that Yzerman was willing to part with a first-round pick to get it done -- while retaining the higher of Detroit's two first-rounders on the table, per the terms of the trade -- signals that he's ready to "go for it, so to speak."
It's invigorating for a franchise that's fallen on hard times, in a city whose teams are rebuilding out of the rubble. DeBrincat is a star, and now he's Detroit's. Yzerman has had his eye on him for a while, even pointing out back in March that after the Senators acquired DeBrincat for draft picks "coming into the next phase of their development" last summer, "it will be interesting now, DeBrincat has one year to go on his contract, what they do with that."
Ultimately, Yzerman used it to his advantage. He brought DeBrincat home. This is a win for the Wings, who have finally taken a swing.
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