The New Orleans Saints' season is teetering on the brink of over, needing a five-game win streak to close out the season to even reach .500. Still, as long as a road exists, they'll do their best to stay on it.
The Giants can't say the same thing, and that's what makes this game dangerous. The Saints have motivation, the Giants don't. If it doesn't look that way throughout the game, the last month of the season could get U-G-L-Y.
THE GAME | Saints (4-8) at Giants (2-10)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Dec. 8
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
- Series history: Giants lead 17-15
- Last meeting: 2023, Saints 24, Giants 6
- Betting: Giants +5.5
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Charlie Long, 8-10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m.-noon
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching most closely, and a bit of lagniappe, in the Saints' weekend showdown.
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1. DEREK CARR VALUE GAME
There were several reasons the Saints opted to pay Derek Carr last season. One of the big ones was simple: Veteran QBs give your offense a higher baseline -- at least they should.
At the most important position on the field, teams that expect to be in contention aren't often going to point to a rookie QB and say "good luck, let's see what you got." Some teams don't have a choice. Some teams have spent premium draft picks on a QB and need to evaluate. The Saints are neither of those things -- or at least they haven't been.
The Saints are currently sitting at No. 9 in the projected draft order, but with winnable games ahead and the ability to move significantly in either direction based on the results in the final five games. That's where Derek Carr comes in, because he's probably the biggest element that will prevent that high draft pick.
Is that a good thing for the Saints at the end of the day -- probably not. This roster doesn't feel like it has the depth to truly contend for a Super Bowl, and it's hard to see a scenario where the Saints infuse enough young talent to get there by the time star veterans like Demario Davis and others age out (I don't know when that will be, but it's getting closer and closer.
For it not to be a bad thing, it has to be because Carr is the answer, at least in the short term. You can do whatever you want at QB in the draft, but this needs to be the type of game that Carr looks like the far and away better option than a Drew Lock. The Giants are starting a replacement level QB that they're paying $5M on a 1-year deal. That level of QB is all over the place, particularly if you're offering them a chance to start. What Carr needs to do is show exactly why he's a better option, and he does that by going out and dominating as dominatable a matchup as there is in the 2024 version of the NFL landscape.
In fairness, Carr has done that throughout his stint with the Saints. New Orleans has won most of the matchups they've had the QB advantage in, with a few notable exceptions (Vikings/Dobbs stands out).
I view this stretch as a pivotal one for a lot of people in the organization as it heads into next season. In my opinion, the only realistic shot the current coaching regime -- Darren Rizzi and Co. -- has at sticking around is if the current version of the offense is one you want to stick with. A new head coach would likely mean a third offense in as many years. If that's happening anyway, don't handcuff that person to a veteran QB that a large swath of the fanbase isn't really sold on. They've got to show something over the final five games to make that make sense.
If that's gonna happen, it's got to start on Sunday at MetLife.
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2. KENDRE MILLER SHOT OUT OF A CANNON GAME
To say Kendre Miller is motivated for this game is a bit of an understatement.
The second-year RB is coming back from his second IR stint of the year, and if you ask him it wasn’t one that had to happen at all. His most recent hamstring injury was minor, and he said he could’ve played in any of the past four games if he was asked.
Instead he was on the pine, continuing a trend of not being available that’s turned the start for a promising young player into a frustrating ordeal. It was clear that he was not a favorite of Dennis Allen, and it’s not too difficult to understand why. Coaches that don’t win games get fired. It’s a lot harder to win games when quality players can’t get on the field.
I still see Kendre as a quality player. It’s clear interim head coach Darren Rizzi does as well. One of his first acts as head coach was to sit down with every player 1-on-1 and give them a frank assessment of where things were and where they needed to go. For Kendre the message was: There’s no doghouse, and he’s certainly not in it. It’s time to play.
Kendre took that message to heart. He’s kept working. He’s healthy now, and the timing is good, considering the Saints are without Taysom Hill the rest of the way, who had been a key piece to the run game.
When Kendre has played he’s been effective. It’s time to combine that with availability. That starts on a brisk Sunday in the Meadowlands. Let’s see what he’s got.
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3. HOT OR COLD GAME
This is going to be the coldest game the Saints have played in the last two seasons, but it won’t be the coldest game they play this month.
The Saints get a brisk day up in the Meadowlands, and in two weeks they’ll turn to an apocalyptically cold day in Green Bay.
As I type this the current temperature in New York City (they play in Jersey, but you get the idea) is a brisk 36 degrees. The temperature in Green Bay is 25.
This will be a day game, so at least the sunshine will help warm things up. In Green Bay? That’s MNF, under the stars.
I asked a few players this week what their experience was in the cold and if there was anything, reasonably, that could be done to prepare. The answer: Not really. The Saints practiced outside this week in admittedly colder New Orleans temperatures, but ultimately all you can do is go out there and do it.
Derek Carr, who spent the majority of his career in the AFC North and took part in his fair share of cold games, relayed some advice from a former coach: “If you let it affect you, it will.”
Fair. I don’t buy the whole “cold is a state of mind” thing. Cold is cold. But if you can convince yourself it’s not, or at least that it’s not an issue that should prevent you from winning, you’ll give yourself a chance to win.
All that is to say: The temperatures shouldn’t be a huge problem for this game. It’s an obstacle, but one that should be overcome.
If the temperature becomes an issue this week and the Saints play like a team that can’t handle it, find something else to do a few Mondays from now because that game will be an absolutely bloodbath (and let’s be real, it might be regardless).
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LAGNIAPPE
Alvin Kamara is currently sitting at 894 rushing yards, just 38 yards away from his career high set in 2020. One of the few things that Alvin Kamara hasn't done in his illustrious career is rush for 1,000 yards. He feels like a lock to do that this season if he stays on the field, perhaps a monster game against the Giants will be enough? 106 against this defense feels possible. He's also got a good shot to set a new career high in yards from scrimmage, currently sitting at 1688 (2020). Alvin has 1,344, meaning he'll need to average 68.8 yards over his final five games to get there. The number that feels safe is 2,157, the record set by Deuce McAllister in 2003. Alvin would need to average more than 162 yards per game to get there. ... You can't force opportunity to arrive, all you can do is be ready if and when it does, and that's the story of Kevin Austin Jr.'s season. No one was really talking about the intriguing WR over the first three months of the season, but he was toiling away on the practice squad. KA was working hard, and people noticed, so much so that when Darren Rizzi took over as interim, he had veteran players telling him that the kid should get a shot with so many WRs out. He did in the form of practice squad elevations in each of the past three weeks. He's responded with 6 catches on 7 targets, with all six catches going for 1st downs, several in key moments. He even has a carry for 9 yards on an end around. With his call-ups exhausted Austin will be getting signed to the active roster. He's earned it, now he has to keep taking advantage of his opportunity. ... Cesar Ruiz has cleared concussion protocol, while Erik McCoy and Lucas Patrick practiced in full on Friday and have no injury designation. That means the Saints, barring any weirdness or setbacks, will be rolling out their starting offensive line in full for the first time since Week 3. That feels like a lifetime ago. Injuries have been as big a story of this season as any, but when that group has been out there the team has played well. Let's see what they've got. ... Did you know that Blake Grupe currently is the Saints franchise leader in career FG% among players with at least 25 attempts? It's not a long list, but Grupe is at 84.7% (50-59). Wil Lutz is next at 84.6% (165/195). Believe it or not, Hall of Fame kicker Morten Andersen is all the way in 7th with a make percentage of 77.6% (302/389). Grupe has made 11 of his 14 kicks from 50-plus (78%). Lutz was 17 of 29 (58%), while Andersen was 22/53 (41%). All this is to say that for whatever reason we're not talking about Grupe's season (20-22 overall/5-5 from 50-plus) nearly as much as we should be. In Lutz's seven seasons with the Saints he never had more than four makes from outside 50 in any year. Lutz's best season was Year 3 when he went 28-30 overall (93%). In Years 1-2 Grupe and Lutz compare favorably. I only mention this because the Saints have a pair of outdoor games coming up and Grupe will need to perform well to keep his numbers where they are. In the end I think a lot of folks would try to argue that keeping Grupe over Lutz has been a downgrade, and it simply hasn't been that. ... MVS has caught four touchdowns in his last three games. He's the Saints' team leader in TD catches and he's done it on 11 targets. That's a Jimmy Graham level of scoring efficiency right there.
