The New Orleans Saints have lost three games in a row. It's a skid that needs correcting soon, and there's two games in a span of five days for that to happen.
The first challenge is the Bucs, a team that would like nothing more than to force the Saints closer to the cellar of the NFC South race. A team that's coming off 10 days of rest, though they've had to navigate Hurricane Milton and have been in New Orleans since Tuesday. Oh, and the Saints are looking to a rookie making his NFL Debut in Spencer Rattler after an injury to Derek Carr.
What could go wrong?
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching the most closely when the Saints face off with the Bucs in this pivotal, Week 6 NFC South showdown.
━━
1. Get off the field
I should probably start this off with a Spencer Rattler note, considering that's the exciting thing to talk about, but I just don't see it as the most important. I don't care who this Saints team is starting at quarterback, if they can't get off the field on more third downs, you're not winning games.
That issue was more pronounced than ever against the Chiefs when Kansas City converted on seemingly every 3rd down, even if the numbers don't show that perfectly. In the end it was 6-14 (43%), but situationally that's a lot more problematic. The Saints had eight third down scenarios where they could've feasibly forced a punt, and "succeeded" in two of them. One forced a Matt Araiza punt on the second drive of the game, and the other was the series that saw the Saints allow a first-down on fourth and short after getting the Chiefs into a 3rd and 22 situation. Not exactly ideal.
The Saints' red zone defense is currently No. 1 in the NFL at a rate of 25% touchdowns allowed, but they've also allowed drive into that part of the field far too often. The Saints will almost certainly regress closer to the mean in that regard, and these close games won't feel nearly as close.
“It’s been an issue, something we actually addressed [Thursday] morning with the whole group, but it’s really tackling the quarterback, too many missed tackles," Joe Woods said, noting a drive against the Eagles where a missed third down tackle led to a 15-play drive. That possession ended in a turnover on downs, but those body blows add up throughout the course of a game.
"We might have took 50-60 extra plays just because we simply missed a tackle, we didn’t get the quarterback down when we had them in our grasp, so it’s really more of us just finishing in space,” Woods continued.
In Weeks 1-2 the Saints held their opponents to 30.4% on 3rd downs, a figure that ranked among the best in the NFL. In Weeks 3-5 they've allowed conversions on 41% of 3rd downs (16-39). It might not sound like a lot, but it's often the difference between a 3 and out and a long drive, regardless of how it ends. It's how you end up on defense for 40 minutes of a 60-minute game. It's the difference between a defense that's fresh in the 4th quarter and the biggest moments, and one that's gassed and falls flat in opportunities to close out wins.
Now, Baker Mayfield is no Pat Mahomes, but he's definitely a player who understands how to scramble and extend a play if you don't have your rush plan on point. That was a big factor in the Week 4 loss a year ago, while the Saints did a much better job in the Week 17 win. Get Baker to the ground, get off the field.
Forcing turnovers is how a defense changes a game. Holding up on third down is how a defense dominates a game. It's a subtle difference, but an important one.
The Saints are playing with fire if they keep relying on red zone efficiency, particularly with a rookie QB that's going to need all the help they can get. That's what I'm watching this week.
━━
2. How many answers does Rattler have?
As you're watching Spencer Rattler this week, understand that there will be two distinct games that he's playing.
The first will occur in the planned portion of the game, whether that's in the actual script to start the game or in the scouted scenarios that coaches have given him to attack. I anticipate that he'll handle those situations well, and hopefully that makes for a fast start.
The second game? That'll be the one where he simply has to react. It'll be when the defense does something he isn't expecting or simply has never seen before. How does he handle those situations?
It's the reason that teams are often hesitant to turn to rookie QBs in big moments, at least the ones where they have a choice. If you're taking a QB in the top 10, the clock ticks loudly. The Patriots are one of the few teams in quite a while who had the guts to let their top-5 QB sit and wait, but even that only lasted a little over a month into the season. Drake Maye, another QB emerging from the Carolinas, will be getting his first career start in the same week. J.J. McCarthy is hurt and Michael Penix is behind Kirk Cousins. Otherwise the rookies are all getting thrown into the fire.
Some youngsters fare better than others, but struggling is the rule, excelling is the exception. That's particularly true early on. For every Jayden Daniels and CJ Stroud there are a dozen examples of players who couldn't hack it. Even young players that looked like they had it early, like a Wil Levis, have found ways to struggle. It's a tough life as a young QB in the NFL.
That's why it's incumbent on the Saints, in a game they desperately need to win, to give Rattler the best chance possible. The plan has to be on point. The scheme has to hold answers to all the obvious questions and Rattler has to know them like the back of his hand. One positive thing is we've seen how this defense has attacked rookies already this year. They had success going at Jayden Daniels in Week 1, though he still had a solid debut and was able to make things happen with his legs. They struggled mightily against the Broncos and allowed Bo Nix to have easily the best game of his young career.
There's hope that this goes well, but it's a narrow road. In my eyes, the way the Saints win this game is if they're opportunistic, particularly early on in the portion of the game that they'll feel the most confident in. I need to pay off drives with points early before the Bucs find things to target. I need to play this game on my terms, not on theirs. If the Saints can do that, they'll have a fighting chance. If they get down two scores at any point, I have a hard time seeing this going well.
One prediction: If the Saints win the toss, they're taking the ball first.
━━
3. Clean it up
This isn't really an offensive or defensive note, it's just a fact: If the Saints can't play a clean game, their path to a win becomes a lot more difficult.
It's not all on the rookie, but I am worried about how the procedural elements go this week. Being calm and cool in big moments is one of the main perks of going with a veteran. We've honestly seen that from Derek Carr in each of the last three games, despite the losses. Sure there have been mistakes -- the opening drive interception in Kansas City was one of the most boneheaded things I've seen in a long time -- but there have also been clutch up moments. Against the Eagles you had a go-ahead TD drive that resulted in a lead with 2 minutes remaining. Against the Falcons you had a go-ahead TD drive that results in a lead with a minute remaining. In both of those instances there were penalties early in the drive that made them more difficult.
Against the Chiefs and in a game you got utterly dominated, there was an 8-play, 65-yard TD drive that cut the game to 3 points early in the 4th quarter. In all three instances the game went the wrong way from that point on, but those are still the type of clutch drives that you need to have to win football games.
can Rattler have a moment like that? We'll have to wait and see, but I'd rather not have to find out. The margin is gone. There can be no costly pass interference penalties downfield. There can be no muffed punts. There can be no pick-sixes. There can be no illegal motions and formations on key third downs, not if you want to give yourself the best chance to win.
I'll quote Deuce McAllister here, because he said it perfectly: "The job of the other 10 players that are on that field with [Spencer Rattler] is to make his job easier."
Yup. Let's see if that can actually happen.
━━
LAGNIAPPE
OK, Blake Grupe, I hope we don't have to talk about this again. PATs need to be automatic. A good way to lose your a grip on a kicking job is to allow kicks from 35 yards and in to be a rollercoaster ride. I love the fact that you can bomb them from 50-plus, but man, I need my TDs to be worth 7. So far this season we've seen a PAT blocked (not his fault), a kick from inside 40 clanged off the right upright and through, and a missed extra point. We've also seen him go 8-8 on kicks worth 3 points. I don't know, whatever the issue is, straighten it out, because if that game ended differently and the Saints went on to kick a game-tying FG instead of a go-ahead FG, that miss would've been a lot louder. ... Where's the run game? In the Saints' two most frustrating offensive performances (Eagles and Chiefs), Alvin Kamara has managed just 113 rushing yards on 37 carries (3.1 YPC). In the other three games that figure is 275 yards and 5 TDs on 54 carries (5.1 YPC). It's not a coincidence that when the run game gets established, things get a lot easier. Now, I don't know how things will change with Rattler being a bit more mobile and a threat to run himself, but I can't have him dropping back to pass 30-plus times. Let's find a way to run the ball. I wish I could say whether I expected Kendre Miller to be back or not. We'll have to wait and see. He was a full participant in practice all week, so it's certainly not a health issue. ... Willie Gay is back, and that's a good thing. I think his absence has been significant, particularly on run defense, the last two weeks. Hopefully that changes things. ... Who starts at safety? I expect Will Harris to land on IR, so Johnathan Abram would feel the most likely. Kool-Aid McKinstry and Jordan Howden will also be options, but it seems this team is more comfortable with Abram at this point. If nothing else he's a hard hitter and a tonesetter, but I do think he's a liability in coverage. ... Payton Turner is questionable for the game. For whatever reason every time I note that he's potentially back this week all I get is a shrug, but I think we might be undervaluing his impact to this point. When he's been on the field he's been productive. He has inside-outside versatility and made a massive play against the Falcons that should've been a fumble if Nathan Shepherd could've held onto it. I'm just saying, that DE rotation looks a lot more formidable when he's involved in it.
