The New Orleans Saints don't have the playoffs to play for, but that won't stop them from looking to play spoiler against a Bucs squad with much larger ambitions.
Can the Saints end another losing skid and get Spencer Rattler his first NFL win? He'll have to do it as a two-touchdown underdog against a team that can clinch the NFC South with a victory. When these teams met in Rattler's debut back in Week 6 it all went well until it didn't. The Saints scored 27 points in the second quarter to lead at the break, then the Bucs answered with 27 of their own.
THE GAME | Saints (5-11) at Bucs (9-7)
- When: noon, Sunday, Jan. 5
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- Series history: Saints lead 40-26
- Last meeting: 2024, Week 6: Bucs 51, Saints 27
- Betting: Bucs -14; over/under 45
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app (Mike Hoss, play-by-play; Deuce McAllister, color commentary; Jeff Nowak, sideline)
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Charlie Long, 8-10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m.-noon
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching the most closely (and some lagniappe) ahead of the finale in Tampa.
1. DO THE SAINTS OWN THE STATE OF FLORIDA?
One of the more quirky subplots of the last several years for the Saints is going to be tested this week: Whenever the Saints skirt the Gulf Coast to the west, good things seem to happen.
Seriously. It’s the only real reason that I look at this game with a 9-7 Bucs squad needing a win over a 5-11 Saints squad to clinch the division and think they might just have drawn the worst possible matchup.
I don’t know if it’s the cool breeze or the thrill of playing in front a pirate ship or a generally non-intimidating Bucs fanbase, they’ve owned Raymond James Stadium lately.
The Saints are 5-1 in their last six trips to Raymond James Stadium while outscoring the Bucs 149-63. The only loss? That was in 2022, a game quarterback by Andy Dalton that the Saints led 16-3 with less than 4 minutes to play. I’d argue that even in the loss the Saints were dominant.
If you factor in the other two Saints games in Florida (2021 vs Packers in Jacksonville and 2019 vs Jaguars) the Saints are 7-1.
It also hasn’t seemed to matter who the Saints start at quarterback.
Those seven wins included starts by Drew Brees (obviously), Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr last season.
It’s also easy to forget because of how the 2023 campaign ended, but the Bucs had the division title within their grasp when the Saints visited in Week 17 and the Bucs responded with a dud. Instead of putting a playoff bid away at home with a week to rest they had to sweat it out for another week. Embarrassing, sure, but ultimately not costly.
It would have to be Spencer Rattler adding his name to the list this time around, but if he can, man, the Bucs WILL NEVER be able to live it down. If the Bucs fall to the Saints and the Falcons win, the Falcons get in.
Now, I get it, no one wants to see the Falcons in the playoffs. Even less do we want to be the onest that help them get in. I think differently.
Say the Falcons got in and did literally anything (they won’t) — Saints fans will always have the upper hand in that conversation. The far more likely scenario is they get embarrassed by either the Lions or Vikings in front of their home fans.
The other element is we will never have to hear from a Bucs fan again about their “domination” of the division the last four seasons. Because it’s been anything but dominating.
When the Saints won four division titles from 2017? That was domination. The Saints were tied with the Chiefs for the best record in the NFL over that span at 49-15.
If the Bucs win a fourth consecutive this season, they’ll have done it with a 40-28 record. It’s winning the division on easy mode.
A Saints win would shine a light directly on a Bucs team that has some nice wins but has otherwise been meh for a large swath of the Todd Bowles era.
If I can build some confidence in a young QB heading into a long offseason and set up a scenario where two division rivals get embarrassed in the process? Sign me up.
2. CAN ANYONE GUARD MIKE?
The Bucs have the playoffs on the line, so they won’t full sell to get Mike Evans to the 1K mark for the 11th straight season since joining the league. That would tie NFL legend and Hall of Famer Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in NFL history.
These things matter to players, even if opposing fans might shrug it off.
Tampa obviously has to make sure they win the game before they get cute. Still, there’s no Marshon Lattimore locking out Mike E this time around. It’s going to be one of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor on the outside, and Ugo Amadi in the slot.
Evans needs 85 yards to get his record. There’s no 1-on-1 matchup the Saints can show that will really deter Baker Mayfield from putting the ball up for grabs. The Saints can roll help to whatever side he's on, but in any scenario where they don’t, I expect that DB to get challenged.
I agree with the way Joe Woods is approaching it. If Evans gets his yardage, so be it. I just want to make sure it takes 10 or more targets to get it done.
If the Saints can take away deep balls and big plays and forces the Bucs to dink and dunk underneath, the Saints DBs have done their jobs.
And all that said, this game is an important one for young players who figure to be in big roles next year. That includes Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor, who could very well be the outside tandem to start the 2025 season, barring big-name additions or draft picks. Sure would be nice to roll into the offseason with some confidence in that regard.
3. PLAYING FOR PRIDE
We talk a lot about professionalism in the NFL. Guys will always say they have it, but when push comes to shove you don’t always see it.
That’s the type of thing that gets tested more than ever in a season like this one. There have been post-elimination Saints games in the past, it’s inevitable when seasons don’t go your way. But three games with ZERO playoff implications? That’s going to test a lot of people.
Football takes 100% commitment to get right. There’s no other way to justify running full speed into a brick wall play after play after play, then getting up to do it again. It’s a modern-day gladiator battle, and the field is the arena.
So why do I bring this up? Well, this has been a rough week in New Orleans, to say the least. It’d be perfectly reasonable for guys to be distracted. For players to be looking ahead to offseason plans, to alligator arm a catch or pull up on a hit because it’s just not worth it right now. When you see it, you know.
I sure would like to see this Saints team finish things out the right way. It’d say a lot about the job Darren Rizzi has done as interim — I’d argue it’s been good, all things considered — the leadership in that locker room, and the rest of the dudes in it. Players are playing for jobs, this tape doesn't get erased.
If this thing is a laugher from start to finish we’ll all erase the memories of it pretty quickly, and there’ll be a lot of more important things to discuss in an offseason that seems primed for significant change.
Let’s see what happens.
LAGNIAPPE
Isaiah Foskey is one of the few mysteries remaining in this Saints season, and I'm still not convinced we're going to get an extended look at him in this game. Both DC Joe Woods and HC Darren Rizzi have told me that the issue isn't his play, but the stacked lineup in front of him that's been healthy throughout. It's tough to argue that point, with Foskey not likely to supplant any of Cam Jordan, Chase Young or Carl Granderson and Payton Turner a former 1st round pick in a contract year. All of those guys have been healthy with just one game missed total. But still, this season is lost, the least we could do is a get a legitimate amount of work to grade for a second round pick from last year. One thing Rizzi mentioned is that he's been getting worked into the rotation more lately, and that's true. After a run of zero defensive snaps in multiple games the former Notre Dame standout has gotten defensive snaps in four consecutive games and averaged 10 over the last two weeks. If we can get that number up to 30 this week, I'll be satisfied. I just feel like, at some point, we have to make a determination on whether the guy is a player or not. Right now I don't see how anyone can do that. ... Alvin Kamara wasn't ruled out on Saturday, indicating he's got a chance to get on the field and potentially push for his first 1,000-yard rushing season in his storied career. Not to be a downer, but I'd still be surprised if he does play. The injury risks just feel too significant. If he doesn't go the Saints will get another look at Clyde Edwards-Helaire, whom coaches have praised for his professionalism and the speed with which he's been able to pick up the Saints scheme and protections. I thought he had some juice last week and he's 25 years old. He's certainly got some motivation to make things work in New Orleans. Why not? Weirder things have happened. ... Just generally speaking, it's been a rough week. Let's just enjoy a game of football. Who Dat.
