The New Orleans Saints are set for Monday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium, the players that are healthy enough to go out there, anyway.
If the Saints want to end their current two-game skid, they'll have to do it while handing Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs their first loss of the year, something easier said than done.
The Saints will have to navigate absences at several key positions with six players ruled out. That group now includes LB Pete Werner, who was injured on Saturday and downgraded on Sunday. They'll also be without Taysom Hill, Willie Gay and several key OL players. How they navigate those pitfalls could determine the result.
With all that in mind, here are the three things I’m watching most closely when the Saints and Chiefs face off this week.
1. Red Alert IOL
Y’all, I try to avoid being overly dramatic when it comes to individual matchups, backups filling in for starters, potential issues, you know the drill. This week I don’t see any other choice. A week ago the question was whether Shane Lemieux could step in at center and play well after repping the offense all throughout camp. Even he’s not available.
Lemieux has been ruled out with an ankle injury. Erik McCoy is still more than a month away from getting back. Cesar Ruiz has already been ruled out for a second straight game with a knee issue. Lucas Patrick missed the final two days of practice with a groin issue, though he does have a chance to play and traveled with the team to Kansas City.
Even if he does play, the team might opt to keep him at left guard and turn to Connor McGovern, a player who was just a few hours away from boarding a bus to the airport for a trip to London when the Saints called. McGovern has significant experience in the NFL, but he hasn’t played a down since suffering a season-ending knee injury in 2023. He’s spent this season on the Jets practice squad.
He’s had two days of practice. Congratulations, your reward is a matchup with Chris Jones, arguably the most dominant defensive line force in today’s NFL. No big deal.
The good news is that McGovern does have familiarity with several Saints offensive coaches, most notably John Benton. Derek Carr also should be comfortably working with different centers at this point, considering it’ll be the third different player at that position in as many week.
The Saints will also be turning to at least one more backup at RG, likely Landon Young, and if Patrick can’t go, we might finally see the NFL starting debut of Nick Saldiveri.
We saw in Week 3 how quickly interior pressure can wreck a game. That time it was Jalen Carter. I trust Klint Kubiak and Co. to have a plan, but how much help can a plan actually be?
1B. Find Chris Jones
We’ll call this a bonus because it’s really just doubling up on the OL. The fascinating thing about how the Chiefs defense operate is that their star D-lineman gets to call his own shots.
Yes, Steve Spagnuolo is calling the defense, but he’s not telling Chris where to go. Instead it’s Jones himself who — knowing every role within that scheme — walks out onto the field, assesses what the offense is doing, then lines up where he sees the best matchup.
I can say this for certain because current Saints DT Khalen Saunders used to be one of the players tasked with deferring to Jones’ alignment and playing off of it.
“He’s a special player. I mean, he’s gonna be a Hall of Famer when he gets done with this," Saunders told me. "Then you’ve got to realize, too, that relationship. I mean, Spags got there the year I got there in 2019 and now it’s 2024, so they’ve been bonding through the same defense ... and they have the trust into OK, I know this is where this play is going, this is where we’ve got a stunt to, then I’d rather do this. ... it’s just really knowing the defense and giving it a chance to work instead of just playing in it.”
For obvious reasons the Chiefs and Jones operating that way makes it difficult to have a concrete plan. Jones has also done an effective job of balancing his snaps to this point in the season. Through four weeks he's lined up on the right side 91 times and the left side 110 times. It’s a bit of a preference, but not enough to say he’s got a real preference in either direction.
He’s lined up at defensive tackle 72 times, and at defensive end 92 times. The Saints have to be ready for anything, and that’s what Dennis Allen said when I asked. The key is not just to have a plan, but the ability to adjust on the fly based on whatever he decides to do.
It’s certainly not easier to do that with a center who was on the Jets practice squad this time last week.
In the end there’s almost no scenario where the Saints can erase Jones’ impact, even though they were able to in Week 2 against Micah Parsons, who has a similar ability to rush from a host of different spots. What they need to do is limit the damage and make sure the guy doesn’t wreck the game. The only way to do that is to know where Jones is on EVERY rep, even when he’s on the sidelines, they should know where he’s sitting. Let’s see what happens.
2. Can you cover twice?
Anyone who’s watched the Chiefs play, particularly if you’re rooting for the opponent, knows the feeling. The pass rush impacts the play, but it looks the QB is playing in slow motion, sliding up and to the side to evade tackle attemps by inches only to unleash a pass downfield to a player that you know is going to be standing by himself when the camera inevitably pans over.
Pat Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet when he’s on schedule, yet somehow he seems to get even better off-schedule. Limiting that part of his game will likely be key for the Saints if they want to escape Arrowhead with a win.
That’s a big part of what the Saints have focused on this week, not unlike the challenge they faced with Jalen Hurts in Week 2. You not only have to cover and win on the initial route, you have to plaster and — while making sure you don’t hold — stay on your assignment for as long as it takes.
Travis Kelce has been particulary adept at this over the years and, even though he’s had a slow start, the Saints have struggled to defend tight ends not named Kyle Pitts over the last few seasons. That’s not a great combination.
The other way to handle that, as Allen noted this week, is to get the guy to the ground when the chance is there. The Saints have been adept at generating pressure with Chase Young and Carl Granderson, but the sack totals haven’t stuck out. I need to get Mahomes on the ground in this one.
3. Who’s the Will?
Last week the Saints had to navigate the absence of Demario Davis for just the second time during his illustrious Saints tenure. It was a task I felt decent about because of the presence of Willie Gay, but the former Chiefs LB only lasted a few plays before suffering a hand injury.
The Saints struggled to tackle Falcons RBs frequently throughout the game last week, and those absences could be viewed as a culprit. Davis, fortunately, is back this week. Gay is not, and the practice injury bug struck again with Pete Werner going down with a hamstring injury during what was effectively a walkthrough on Friday. Unusual to say the least. He was ruled out for this game on Sunday.
So who steps up? The Saints like D’Marco Jackson and Anfernee Orji, but they certainly didn’t want to be relying on them this extensively to this point. Personally I think Orji’s skillset is more suited to the Will spot, so he’d be my first pick. I like Jackson’s physicality, but he’ll be attacked in coverage all day if he’s out there.
I’ll settle for better tackling. I guess this is like in the NFL, but man, it’s hard not to feel like the Saints have monstrously bad injury luck year in and year out.
LAGNIAPPE
There’s been a lot of talk this week about the atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium, particularly for night games, and I’m excited to see that in person. What I’ve heard repeatedly is that it’s a “college like atmosphere,” and the Saints will have to manage it. The good news is that the Saints have several players with a lot of experience in that building, including QB Derek Carr. The Saints signal-caller has played in the building nine times and had some strong performances. Over his last four games in the building he’s gone 94-136 (69%) for 1,073 yards (268 per), and 7 TDs against 4 interceptions. All those games were with the Raiders, obviously, with Carr’s team winning just one of them. That said, it’s hard to blame the QB too much when the defense is allowing totals of 40, 32, 48 and 30. The Saints also have Tyrann Mathieu and Khalen Saunders, two players who have played in the building as Chiefs. They’ll know what to expect. … Who gets the RB love this week? It certainly doesn’t look like this will be Kendre Miller’s debut. The second-year pro returned to practice this week, but he was downgraded to doubtful on Sunday. If he doesn’t go it’ll be Alvin Kamara and one of Jamaal Williams or Jordan Mims picking up the slack with Taysom Hill already sidelined. Someone’s got to take some of this workload off of Alvin. My bet is on Jamaal. … Who closes? Between, these two teams there’s been a very clear demarcation. The Saints have played two close games that they had a chance to win. They lost both. Meanwhile the Chiefs have played four close games they had a chance to lose, they’ve won all four. Some teams just understand how to win, and the Chiefs are that team. If this game comes down to a final possession with the ball in Mahomes’ hands, I don’t like New Orleans’ chances. …
