Stop us if you've heard this one before: The Saints have won two in a row, and they now get a showdown with the Rams to keep things rolling.
This didn't go so well when the Saints got that opportunity last year, but this is the Rizzi ball era and the rest is on New Orleans' side coming out of the bye. One way or the other a statement will be made.
THE GAME | Rams (5-6) at Saints (4-7)
- When: 3:05 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 1
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Series history: Rams lead 44-35
- Last meeting: Week 16, 2023, Rams 30, Saints 22
- Betting: Saints +1.5; over/under 49.5
- TV: Fox
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Jeff Nowak, 11 a.m.-1 p.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 1-3 p.m.
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching most closely (and some lagniappe) in the Saints' showdown with the Rams in Week 13.
1. Sack Stafford, win the game
It's not exactly a bold take to say that taking the opposing QB to the ground improves your chances of winning, but this game drives that point home even more than most.
Just look at the QB pressure splits in wins and losses. Matt Stafford has been sacked 26 times on the season. Here's when they've come:
- In Rams 5 wins : 4 sacks allowed (0.8 per game)
- In Rams 6 losses: 22 sacks allowed (3.6 per game)
The Rams are fresh off a loss where the Eagles stout pass rush put him on the ground five times. They got the Rams offense off the field and let Saquon Barkley go to work on the other side. That's the same recipe the Saints need to follow with their pass rush, then the Alvin Kamara/Taysom Hill sledgehammer.
A similar trend holds true for the Saints defense. They've got 25 sacks to their credit on the season. Here's when they've come:
- In 4 wins: 16 sacks generated (4 per game)
- In 7 losses: 9 sacks generated (1.3 per game)
The results also matter. When teams are behind on the scoreboard they're more likely to throw, the defense can pin their ears back and get after it. That trend hasn't held true for the Saints, though, at least when Derek Carr is on the field.
Carr has started 8 games, and he's 4-4 in those games. He's been sacked 7 times ... total. In Spencer Rattler's three starts he was sacked 14 times.
2. Pound the rock & convert
The Rams faced the Eagles last week and made Saquon Barkley look like the NFL's MVP. It made what started out looking like a balanced, competitive game into a statement as to why the Eagles are title contenders and the Rams are a fringe playoff contender.
It's also something that the Saints should view as a blueprint for a third consecutive win. There's no Aaron Donald in the middle of that Rams defensive line any more. Instead it's young and promising, but still developing players. Attack, attack, attack.
To this point L.A. has allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the NFL (1,587) and at 4.7 yards a clip. They've been susceptible to the big play.
To this point running the ball has been what the Saints have done well, at least in the games they've played well in. They're currently ranked No. 9 in the NFL with 1,438 yards and 4.6 yards per attempt.
This season the Saints have rushed for 160-plus yards four times, and they're 3-1. Conversely the Rams have allowed 160-plus rushing yards three times. They're 0-3. You get the idea.
The second element is that when the Saints get into a position to score, they have to do it. One thing we didn't talk about enough after that Week 16 loss last year ... the Saints had four separate possessions that they got the ball to L.A.'s 42-yard line or closer and didn't come away with a single point in what turned into a 1-score game.
You have to score to beat the Rams. That much I know.
3. Darren Rizzi statement game
There are a lot of elements that go into how we'll ultimately evaluate Darren Rizzi's run as the Saints head coach. He seems to have gotten the locker room back on track, morale is up, players seem excited, wins feel possible again.
There's a lot to be said for all that, obviously, but it's just window dressing to another lost season if the wins don't come with it. In most cases GMs will prefer to go with a new hire. NFL teams are a business, and they won't be making decisions based on emotion -- they'll hire the new head coach based on who they believe is the best option. The front office has to answer for how things go, and they'll want to at least be able to say they made the decision they're answering for.
This interim stint for Rizzi is a valuable opportunity to showcase his abilities in the lead role. It's a working audition, but it guarantees nothing beyond 8 games as the top guy. There is going to be a full-blown coaching search at the end of this year regardless of what happens. Rizz will likely be a part of that conversation, as will a host of other names.
For Rizz to land the job full-time, he'll need to make a statement that no one else can. He'll have to spur results that look different. He'll have to do it in his own way and show something sustainable. That's what makes this game so important for both him and the season. It's a fulcrum point we've seen fall the wrong way over and over and over again.
At this stage the Rizzi Saints have won two games. It's felt different, but feelings and results aren't the same thing. In the Dennis Allen era we watched the same thing happen five different times. Only once was that two-game stretch followed by a third win (2022, Weeks 15-17). The next three times it happened it was followed by a demoralizing loss (2023: Week 3 at Packers; Week 10 at Vikings; Week 16 at Rams).
The most recent was this season and immediately was followed by a 7-game losing streak that ultimately lost DA his job. The inability to sustain any real success was as big a stain on that coaching tenure as any other.
Rizzi's Saints have the opportunity to flip that script this week, and show that things really are different with him at the helm. If they can win that third game, they'll then turn to a matchup with the NFL's most beatable team (Giants) in Week 14. The Saints haven't gotten on a 4-game winning streak since Drew Brees was atop the depth chart at quarterback.
I'll say it again: Things feel different, but we have to see exactly how they're different. Beat the Rams and the Rizzi era feels like it could be a real thing. Lose and you fall back into the win, win, loss cycle. And that's something we're all too familiar with.
LAGNIAPPE
One of the reasons getting to Matthew Stafford is so important is the guys he'll be throwing to that I'm not sure the Saints can cover. That Week 16 lost last year was about a lot of things, one of them being the inability to tackle Puka Nakua. The young, star WR caught 9 balls for 164 yards and a TD, with 108 of those yards coming after the catch. After the game Ike Yiadom told me it was like trying to tackle a running back. The Rams love to get the ball to the edges of the field and let their WRs make people miss. Saints need to handle that part of the game well, or it'll get very frustrating. Cooper Kupp isn't getting the headlines he once did, but he's still an excellent WR that the Saints will struggle to cover. The young Saints DBs will have their work cut out for them again. ... Does practice make perfect? I asked Joe Woods about the similarities between this Rams squad and the Falcons team they've played twice, led by former Sean McVay understudy Zac Robinson. He said they're "very similar" but that the Rams run it at a much higher level because they've been doing it for so long. Considering how much of a challenge it was for the Saints to handle last year, I can't help but look at that as a positive thing. ... The Saints are doing everything they can to get Erik McCoy out on the field and he'll be a true game-time decision, but at what percent will he be even if he plays? Are the Saints better off with him gutting through an injury? Last week it seemed like things weren't working in the second half until Shane Lemieux took over. We'll have to wait and see, but it'll be a position to watch closely. The Saints opted to sign G/C Kyle Hergel from the practice squad. It's an indicator that there's at least some concern for McCoy's availability, but could also simply be an insurance policy to potentially back up Lemieux. We'll have to wait and see.
