The New Orleans Saints went out to Tampa with something to prove in the pouring rain, and that's exactly what they did.
Tyler Shough continued to open eyes, the Saints defense was a stone wall on 4th down and New Orleans walked away with 24-20 upset win over the Bucs and Baker Mayfield. Expect anything different?
The result means the Saints have now won six of their past eight visits to Raymond James Stadium, and in a 3-10 season, vibes haven't been higher.
With all that in mind, here are my stock up and stock down players after a waterlogged win:
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STOCK UP
Winning Shough
Winning quarterback play can be tough to quantify. There doesn't seem to be any magical combination of stats that creates it, though big performances are often easy to spot. But it often feels intangible and comes with a sense that in the big moments, the QB comes up big.
That's what it feels like the Saints have gotten out of Tyler Shough to this stage and through his first five career starts. And if you don't believe me, here's what Demario Davis had to say about the young QB.
"he’s shown to have that ‘it’ factor. What is it ‘it’ factor? I don’t know, what is that thing that separates, you know, some of our top quarterback in the league from the rest of the guys," Davis said. "It’s that savviness to make heads-up plays."
And on an ugly day like we saw in Tampa, it wasn't going to come relying on the passing game. It was a pair of touchdown runs that showcased what's probably the most undervalued part of his game. The first was a 34-yarder on a zone read that was sprung by a Devaughn Vele block. Shough hit the hole and opened up downfield, showcasing the athleticism he rarely flashed during his season at Louisville, but that was clear to see during his stints at Texas Tech and Oregon.
Later it was the scrambling ability as he Houdini'd out of the grasp of two Bucs defenders and found green grass for a 13-yard scamper. In both instances the runs went for touchdowns that gave the Saints the lead after the Bucs had seemingly been in control of the game.
There were some big throws, too, even if the final line of 13 of 20 for 144 yards and an interception doesn't fully reflect it. Shough continued to come up big on third downs, and he found Devaughn Vele twice for critical first downs as the Saints worked to burn the clock late in the 4th quarter.
"This is why you play football," Shough said. "You know, you come in here, in the elements, just with all your boys, with all your teammates and we fought really hard and ... it kind of took everybody, so it was just a lot of fun. That’s the thing that’s kind of resonating with me right now.”
What's resonating with the locker room and the fanbase is a simple fact: The Saints have their quarterback to build around, or at least it feels that way. And if a few wins to close out the season means the Saints' draft pick falls out of the premium range, that's OK, because building a team culture and learning how to win is a lot more important when the team feels like it has the right quarterback on the starting line. It sure seems like they do.
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4th down D
As positive as the day was for the Saints, they still flirted with disaster a bit too frequently. Ultimately the difference was an astounding FIVE stops on 4th down, which Demario Davis would argue should be six, but that's a debate for another day.
The Bucs continued to try to press the issue near midfield, and the Saints repeatedly stopped them short.
The first attempt was on a 4th and 1 at the New Orleans 45, which ended 7 yards behind the LOS with Carl Granderson shooting upfield for the big tackle of Bucky Irving.
The next was another 4th and 1 at the New Orleans 49, and this time it was Demario Davis shooting the gap and stopping Sean Tucker short for the turnover on downs.
"When you hear the game is won in the trenches, that’s what it’s talking about," Davis said. "It’s our defensive line versus their offensive line, it’s like, who gets that first strike, and I think because our defensive line got such a good push their lineman wasn’t able to come off and I was able to shoot through it and I was one-on-one with the running back, it’s like a layup.”
Baker Mayfield scrambled for a first on 4th and 1 shortly before halftime, and the next stop came on 4th and 15 when Mayfield's hail Mary fell incomplete.
The next stop came on a pass, when it appeared Mayfield had found Chris Godwin for a conversion until Kool-Aid McKinstry laid a hit that jarred the ball loose, and the WR was unable to corral the ball inbounds. It was a massive play in the course of the game, with the Saints taking over and driving for the go-ahead touchdown on the ensuing possession.
"To me that’s as big as an interception ... but Kool-Aid has been making plays all year long, man," Alontae Taylor said of his teammate, "so super excited for him and his growth is going in a good place.”
The final 4th down stop came on the final Bucs offensive play of the game, with Cade Otton stopped just shy of the line to gain at the Bucs' 29 yard line. The Saints took over and kneeled out the game for a win that felt culture-setting. It was the first time this season that the Saints defense was asked to take the field in a closeout, 2-minute scenario, and they were ready.
"We’ve been waiting on a situation like that as a defense the entire year," Davis said, "and it’s great that our first one went so well.”
But the 4th down and short-yardage defense wasn't a one-off, it's been a strength all year. The Saints had a similar stop in a critical situation against the Dolphins just a week ago, and another in Week 4 during a close loss to the Bills. In their last meeting with the Bucs they stopped 7 straight goal line plays before Tampa inched the ball over for a touchdown on attempt No. 8. The Saints offense has found themselves running into a wall at times in those situations, so it's a good sign this defense can do much of the same.
If you combine third and fourth down situations, the Bucs converted on just 5 of 20 attempts. That's winning defense.
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Devin MF Neal
The bulk of the headlines will be going to Shough after this game, and that's just the reality of being a quarterback. You get too much of the praise when things go well and too much of the blame when they don't. But without another key offensive rookie, I'm pretty sure we're sitting here talking about another close loss in a lost season.
When Alvin Kamara went down two weeks ago, the Saints coaching staff knew Devin Neal could be trusted, and they didn't really have much of a choice. Kendre Miller has been on IR since Week 7 and the other two options were late arrivals in Audric Estime and Evan Hull. The rookie out of Kansas was going to be thrust into a bellcow role, for better or worse.
The fact that we haven't been talking about RB as a major issue is evidence enough that he's done the finer points of the job well, even if the running game hasn't exactly been dynamic. He's simply been consistent and reliable, and on a day that the Saints desperately needed a run game, he delivered a career day in a winning effort.
"I just think it’s a representation of who we are," Neal said. "We could easily just be down in the dumps, you know, go about it in the wrong way and not focus on getting wins and everyone focus on themselves and how they can continue to elevate this, but at the end of the day we elevate each other and I think that just represents our culture as a whole and I think that represents this team, for sure.”
Neal finished the day with 70 yards on 19 carries, and his 21-yard run in the second half was the first 20-plus-yard run by a Saints running back this season. He also kicked off the day with a touchdown that doubled as his first career rushing TD, and also the Saints' first opening-drive TD since Week 4. But his biggest play of the game came on a dumpoff on third down on the go-ahead scoring drive, with Shough getting out of trouble and finding Neal for a catch-and-run on third and 8 that kept the drive alive. If not for that play the Saints likely settle for a field goal, and who knows where things go from there.
"He’s one of the best running backs I’ve ever played with, just from a mindset standpoint, his knowledge of the game, protections, running the football, getting north and south," Shough said of Neal.
Both rookies are very easy to root for and the connection they form this season should bode well going forward. At least for a day, the needle for this Saints offense seems to be pointing up.
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Honorable mention
Mason Tipton continues to be an impact player for this team, this time taking the opening kickoff back 54 yards to go along with the 75-yard return from a few weeks back. I don't expect teams will keep kicking it his way. ... Devaughn Vele didn't have the type of huge day he did in Miami, but his two first down grabs on the final Saints drive made a huge difference in terms of what the Bucs were looking at for a comeback attempt. A quick 3 and out there would've been a much different scenario. … team culture is a buzzword, but how can you question it around this team right now? Teams that have given up simply don't put forth that type of effort. The Saints insist that they're doing things the right way, and results like these definitely lend credence to that idea. … Juwan Johnson continues to be a security blanket for Tyler Shough. No one's stats explode off the page for this game, but he caught all 4 targets for 38 yards and a few key first downs. … William Sherman didn't play a ton in this game, but he did take over midway through the 4th quarter for an injured Asim Richards and I didn't hear his name called. Any time you have to play your third-string RT and survive, that's a major win.
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STOCK DOWN
Decisions, decisions
I'm looking for things to complain about here (but that's kind of the point after a loss), but there always tend to be at least a few head coach headscratchers -- even on the good days.
In this case a few stand out, the first being the decision NOT to challenge what appeared to be an Audric Estime first down conversion in the third quarter. It appeared to the naked eye that he had the line to gain, so much so that the Saints opted to run tempo. The only problem? The refs spotted it short.
Rather than challenge, the Saints simply ran a 4th down play that worked, but it was called back due to an ineligible man downfield penalty on Cesar Ruiz. The play call was what it was, but I'm still a bit baffled as to why you'd simply stand by the ruling there. Based on Moore's explanation after the game, it sounds like the issue was with TV replay. Because the Saints rushed up to the line, the broadcast cut back to the live action rather than showing any good looks at the play. Without any definitive angles, the Saints opted not to challenge. Plausible, yes ... justifiable, no. You, sir, are the head coach. Trust your eyes. Not doing that cost the team a chance at a touchdown.
Related
In large part I really liked how Moore's offense operated in the second half, and much like the win over the Panthers, the Saints' ability to churn clock in the 4-minute offense was pivotal in winning this game. But I do think he overthought things on 3rd and 11 late in the 4th quarter. If it's 3rd and medium, I'm all for being aggressive. On 3rd and 11, the defense has already won. The best thing you can do is burn 40 seconds. Instead the Saints opted to roll out, and in Moore's defense I think the idea was for Shough to eat the ball if nothing was wide open. Instead he tried to hit Vele for a throw that would've been well short and would've likely led the receiver out of bounds even if he caught it. It could be chalked up as a rookie error, but why put him in that position? Fortunately the defense came through. If they hadn't and Baker found another magical finish, that decision would've drew much heavier scrutiny.
There are also small decisions throughout the game that don't compute for me, like accepting a penalty to set up 1st and 15 rather than accepting the result of the play for 2nd and 10. There's simply no way the math supports that decision, because a positive result would be getting back to 2nd and 10. With the offense backed up you're not going to be aggressive on defense, and in this case the Bucs picked up 9 yards on first down. Instead of 2nd and 10 they were in 2nd and 6.
These are small nitpicky things, but they add up over time.
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QB to CO
Let me start by saying that it takes time for QB and WR to develop the high level of chemistry it takes to be "on the same page" all the time. It's probably the greatest consequence that still exists from a QB competition that limited the rookie QB's reps with his top wide receiver.
Still, the mistakes are costly. For the second consecutive week Shough thought Olave was going to do one thing and the WR did another, and in both instances that resulted in an ugly interception. In this case it looked like a fade that can be converted to a comeback based on the leverage. Clearly Olave felt like he wasn't going to get over the top and Shough disagreed. The ball went deep with Olave standing 30 yards away from it.
Shough did find Olave in some critical moments and he finished the game with 3 catches for 30 yards. It still feels like there's a lot more being left on the table in that partnership.
Those two will sort it out eventually, and fortunately there's plenty of time to get that figured out before the games start to matter again.
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Florida weather
This is a bit of a copout, but geez ... all I hear about Florida is how nice the weather is and we've experienced anything but over the past two weeks. There was plenty of rain to manage in Miami, but it was nothing compared to the monsoon that came down this week in Tampa.
Personally I was soaked to the bone, and the field was a torn up mess by halftime. The weather significantly limited both offenses, but it probably worked in favor of the Saints in this one, because it turned the game into a grind-it-out affair where the advantage of Baker Mayfield was negated. He had one of his worst games since joining the Bucs, and the decision to come out of halftime throwing was odd for Tampa. It resulted in an early interception that set up the Saints' touchdown drive.
The ugliest thing for the Bucs is they now have to turn around and play on that field in 4 days when the Falcons come to town. The playing surface will almost certainly still be in shambles, and we'll get to see that play out on national TV. The weather didn't relent on the way home, by the way, with the Saints' team plan stuck on the runway for nearly 3 hours until the weather cleared.
Let's just say I'm not than happy to avoid the state of Florida for a while.
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A few more
I’m not going to bang on Charlie Smyth too hard, but he did miss from 48 yards in this game, his first miss in live action of his career. He did knock through all three PATs without issue and was good from 30. Misses are inevitable and perhaps getting one out of the way takes the pressure off. Still, Blake Grupe got cut for those types of misses. You’ll get grace for one, but that won’t last long. Fortunately for Charlie his next two games will come at the Superdome where he won’t have to deal with wind and rain. … Jonas Sanker has taken on way more responsibility than you’d like to hand to a rookie, and he’s largely delivered. But he did miss a few opportunities for impact plays in this game. One came on the Bucs’ touchdown drive in the third quarter when he was flagged for PI on a 3rd and 11. He also dropped an INT that would’ve ended the game, but it didn't hurt when the defense stopped the Bucs on 4th down a few plays later. Not a terrible day, but enough to land in this section. ... The Saints' aggressive defense continues to get burned on screens. I don't know what the fix is there, but it's something Brandon Staley needs to take a long look at.